Taleban 2.0: The rebuilding of Afghanistan

Three concerns about Taleban 2.0

Ali Riaz
The Daily Star, Bangladesh

The Taleban has returned to power in Afghanistan. Since the Taleban blitz began a few weeks ago, after United States President Joe Biden declared the timeline of the US withdrawal, security experts and analysts of Afghan politics have expressed an array of concerns.

These fears have been rejected by those who are optimistic of a new beginning in Afghanistan and want to give the Taleban the benefit of the doubt. They are suggesting that this is Taleban 2.0.

Implied in the statement is that the Taleban has transformed. They argue that these concerns are only a part of the anti-Taleban campaign on behalf of the West. These explanations and concerns warrant our attention, particularly now that Taleban rule has become the reality.

A common explanation of the Taleban's victory is that the people of Afghanistan have rejected the foreign power, as they did the British and the former Soviet Union before. However, nationalist ethos alone does not explain the entire phenomenon; the failure of the US-backed government in Kabul bears some responsibility.

The concerns about the future of Taleban-ruled Afghanistan can be broadly divided into three strands. First, the nature of governance to be introduced within the country. Second, whether Afghanistan will become a safe haven for international terrorist groups. Third, whether Afghanistan will emerge as a threat to regional peace and stability.

Taleban rule from 1996 to 2001 was marked by the absence of inclusivity in politics and governance. The possibility of austere measures has already frightened people.Even if the Taleban leadership makes promises, is there a guarantee that its followers will not continue the old practices?

Although the Taleban has assured the US, China and Russia that it will not allow Afghan soil to be used by terrorist groups in the future, experts on Afghanistan believe that it will continue to maintain contacts with Al-Qaeda, and the link is "unbreakable". There is no guarantee that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria or Al-Qaeda will not build their bases, taking advantage of a chaotic situation and finding ungoverned spaces.

The third concern is how much will be the ideological impact of the ruling Taleban in Afghanistan on countries in South Asia and Central Asia. Harkatul Mujahideen (Huji), a Pakistan-based violent extremist organisation, came into being in support of the Mujahideen. By 1992, it had expanded into a regional terrorist organisation. The Taleban's victory will energise the followers of its ideology throughout the region. In the past 20 years, the Taleban has been able to recruit members without being in power; now, its success is likely to attract more. It is imperative to highlight and be vigilant about the threat of terrorism. It is necessary for the members of civil society and the international community to remain vigilant.

The ball is in the court of the Taleban. It is incumbent on the Taleban to behave as a responsible political actor and ensure that Afghanistan is not going back to 1996.

Taleban's road ahead

Khurram Husain
Dawn, Pakistan

We are being told that the Taleban of today is not the same as the Taleban of 1996. Fair enough, but the Afghanistan of today is not the same as the Afghanistan of 1996 either. But now that the war has ended, the real job of running the country begins.

The US-installed government was notorious for its corruption and inability to build institutions, but despite these failings, what the Taleban has captured today is far more functional and developed compared with what it captured back in 1996.

In time, the Taleban will learn that almost more than half of the resources required to operate the new state that is now its to run are met by donor countries that are announcing a suspension of these aid flows one by one.

This is why the Taleban is so keen to acquire international legitimacy.

The upside today is that nobody wants to see the Taleban fail and Afghanistan to descend once again into protracted conflict.

This will be of help to the Taleban as it works to legitimise its takeover and ask the international community for the assistance without which it cannot run the state.

Afghanistan's dark age

Editorial
The Jakarta Post, Indonesia

A few months after the pullout of American troops, Afghanistan looks set to reenter a dark age as the Islamic fundamentalist Taleban appears to regain control of the country.

While other predominantly Muslim or Islamic countries are embracing the tenets of modernisation in line with Islamic teachings, there are fears that Afghanistan under the Taleban will revert to the "stone age".

The immediate implications for other countries, including Indonesia, will be an exodus of refugees fleeing the Taleban regime with all consequences, including security threats.

For a long time, Indonesia has had the ambition to act as an honest broker of peace in Afghanistan. It is clear, however, that good intention alone is not enough - or perhaps goodwill is not realistic at all.

Afghanistan attracted the attention of at least two Indonesian presidents, Soeharto and Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.

In January 2018, Mr Widodo visited Kabul and also went to Pakistan to meet then Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain to propose a trilateral ulema conference in Bogor, West Java.

The conference took place in May that year, with the agenda including promotion of peace and friendship under Islam. The Taleban, however, boycotted it.

A lesson we can learn from Afghanistan is no matter how strategic a country is, in the end, it should stand on its own feet. We feel very sorry for the Afghan people. But as US President Joe Biden has said, it is up to the Afghan people to decide the future of their nation.