World’s biggest party revs up unstoppable Modi campaign machine

DELHI – On a recent Friday morning, Mr Dhansukh Patel – volunteer, loyal foot soldier and long-time member of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – sat on the verandah of his home deep in discussion with aides on strategies to win more voters to the party. 

Ahead of polls in the western province of Gujarat,

Mr Patel is on a mission to ensure that most of the 1,400 people in his village of Umber vote for the BJP. Aided by a database with details about local voters collected over the years, his team of 11 people have been knocking on doors, sending WhatsApp messages and helping families sign up for government welfare programmes that provide them with free rice and medical assistance. 

Gujarat is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home turf – the state where he was chief minister for more than a decade – and political analysts say a loss in the state is unlikely. Even so, the party machinery has been in overdrive for months. Helped by an army of workers like Mr Patel – who are essentially helping it walk the last mile – the party is attempting to reach every corner of the state and turn every uncertain voter. 

Yet the election machinery that the BJP has shifted into gear goes well beyond Gujarat. Mr Modi wants to expand his support base and sustain momentum for the national election in 2024 when he is expected to again lead the party for a third consecutive term. It is a mammoth effort run by foot soldiers like Mr Patel, showing how the BJP morphed from a fringe group into the world’s largest party with more than 180 million members, which is about double the reported membership of China’s Communist Party. 

Since retiring two years ago, Mr Patel, 60, says he’s devoted all his time volunteering for the party. “Rallies are fine, but door-to-door campaign is most effective,” he said, as he thumbed through pages of data listing local villagers and their contact information. 

Voting in Gujarat closed on Monday, and the results will be out on Dec 8. They will be

an important indicator of Mr Modi’s popularity

for the national polls. Along the way, the BJP supplements the work of people like Mr Patel with detailed surveys to prepare it for both state and national elections. 

The interest in data extends to the highest levels of the BJP. Beyond its official survey, Mr Amit Shah, minister of Home Affairs and the party’s master strategist, personally relies on professional teams to get on-the-ground information and cross check details provided by party leaders, two people familiar with matter said. Mr Shah usually focuses on identifying issues, calculating risk, preparing blueprints, and making social alliances, according to political analysts and party members.

A spokesman for the BJP declined to comment. 

The BJP’s main opposition party, the Congress party, does not have enough boots on the ground and has been struggling to reclaim lost ground after suffering

its worst-ever defeat in the 2014 elections that brought Mr Modi to power

nationally. 

The BJP’s unapologetic emphasis on Hindu nationalism, creation of new social and caste coalitions, and focus on women and welfare programmes made it the “primary pole of Indian politics, replacing the Congress”, said Dr Nalin Mehta, dean of the School of Modern Media at UPES University in Dehradun and the author of The New BJP.

“All of these factors combine with a formidable grassroots cadre and a ruthless managerial focus on winnability to create a powerful election machine that can often make the difference in close contests,” said Dr Mehta, the political scientist. “This increases the scale of the challenge for India’s opposition parties as they gear up for the next general election in 2024.” 

The BJP is also India’s richest political party, with its income in financial year 2021 topping the combined wealth of the next seven largest national parties, giving it a huge advantage over rivals. 

Local leaders and candidates bear very limited expenses, with the central leadership taking care of most expenditures, including cost of star campaigners and publicity, said Mr Niranjan Zanzmera, head of the BJP in Surat city.

Gujarat will provide a template as the BJP starts programmes, including training camps for workers, as part of its preparation for other state assembly elections including Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in 2023. 

For the 2024 general election, the BJP has also formulated action plans, with the aim of taking the 144 seats that it did not win in 2019, according to two senior leaders familiar with the development. 

The party starts election preparations early. In Gujarat, it swung into action to win the state for the seventh consecutive term by replacing the incumbent chief minister in September 2021 with a new leader. It also lured a strong local leader from the Congress party in June to join the BJP in Gujarat. 

Mr Jagdish Parekh, the BJP unit chief in Surat district, said his team has been adding new members, forming committees at the village level, analysing data on caste and religion and setting up call centres for at least six months before the Gujarat elections. 

Collating such information can help select candidates, focus on local groups, target messages for voters who are still on the fence and build social alliances, he said. 

“We do micro-management of elections,” Mr Parekh said. “It’s the human chain of dedicated workers that are ensuring BJP victory.” 

Still, opposition party leaders including the Congress’s Rahul Gandhi say the BJP’s emphasis on religion and Hindu nationalism, are a deeply divisive force in a secular nation. Gujarat has its own history of religious turmoil. In 2002, soon after Mr Modi became chief minister of Gujarat, more than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were killed in the province in sectarian rioting. Human rights groups blamed Mr Modi for doing little to stop the violence, allegations that were denied by him and later dismissed by the Supreme Court. 

Also, voter profiles are now linked to the national digital ID, known as Aadhaar, a move

criticised by civil rights groups who raised privacy concerns.

On social media, a key battleground in Indian elections – more than 10,000 workers and 60,000 volunteers are working across Gujarat to create content and monitor opposition activities, said Mr Manan Dani, social media co-convener for the state. While the BJP’s social media cell is active through the year, three full-fledged war rooms were set up for election campaigning in Gujarat, he said.

Despite its huge network, the BJP is not invincible. It has suffered defeats in some states,

including Delhi,

partly because strong local leaders were not available. It also lacks a base in southern states though the party is trying to make inroads there.

Mr Rama Chandra Khuntia, a senior leader of the opposition Congress party, said the BJP is spending heavily on political marketing, paid news and advertisements, and the Congress can’t afford to spend as much. 

Still, the Congress is gaining ground after a nationwide march led by Gandhi, which began in early September, said Mr Khuntia. “We will be able to give a tough fight in the general elections.”

The regional Aam Aadmi Party, which governs Punjab and Delhi,

is a serious contender in Gujarat.

It may not match the BJP in the number of last mile party workers and financial resources, but can compete with its social media presence and dedicated volunteers, said Anup Sharma, a leader of the Aam Aadmi Party.

Even as the BJP makes a big push on the ground, Mr Modi remains its brand ambassador and star campaigner, communicating directly with voters by addressing rallies. For the Gujarat election, he has addressed about 35 rallies since November, reaching out to farmers, youth and women. By contrast, Mr Gandhi, scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family, has addressed only two public rallies in Gujarat. 

The national polls are not a done deal for the BJP because it could face voter anger over rising prices and unemployment, said Ms Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based author and political analyst.

Yet the BJP has a head start as “a master in the art of communication through social media and is good at using its resources in a very targeted manner”, said Ms Jerath. “They know the art of election management.” BLOOMBERG