PM Modi’s BJP gets a boost after electoral win in Gujarat state
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Supporters of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party celebrate in Gandhinagar, India, on Dec 8, 2022.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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NEW DELHI - The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surged to victory in the western state of Gujarat for a record seventh consecutive win, a sign of the continuing popularity of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
But the electoral victory was somewhat tempered by a looming loss in the smaller hill state of Himachal Pradesh.
In Gujarat on Thursday night, the BJP, which has been in power for 27 years, was winning or leading in 156 of the 182 assembly seats, up from its tally of 99 seats in the 2017 election.
The Congress was leading and winning in 17 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which fought its first election in the state in five seats, was also heading towards victory.
“Thank you Gujarat. I am overcome with a lot of emotions seeing the phenomenal election results,” tweeted Mr Modi.
“People blessed politics of development and at the same time expressed a desire that they want this momentum to continue at a greater pace.”
Gujarat is a BJP bastion, with Mr Modi credited for transforming the state into an economic powerhouse over the 13 years that he was chief minister between 2001 and 2014.
He was the face of the party and campaigned extensively in the state, where he and Home Minister Amit Shah also crafted the political strategy of the party, which critics said is steeped in religious polarisation.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking at a BJP rally in Ahmedabad, Gujarat state, on Dec 2, 2022.
PHOTO: AFP
Analysts said the BJP was able to overcome governance issues at the local level and related to the collapse of the suspension bridge
The local BJP-led administration has been accused of lapses in choosing a clock-making company for the renovation of the bridge and allowing the structure to open without a safety certificate. But the BJP won in the Morbi constituency.
Additionally, the party is seen to have benefited from a three-way battle in Gujarat, with the electoral debut of the AAP eating into the Congress votes.
“It is clear the Gujarat victory has nothing to do with the state government but the charisma of the Prime Minister and Home Minister. The two-way fight also became a three-way fight to the benefit of the BJP,” said Dr Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist and vice-chancellor of the Jagran Lakecity University.
“Gujarat is a massive victory. But there is a little moment of caution for the BJP in the Himachal results,” he added.
The hill state of Himachal Pradesh has a history of alternating between the Congress and the BJP since 1982. On Thursday night, the Congress was winning and leading in 40 seats, and the BJP in 25 seats in the 68-seat state assembly.
On Wednesday, the BJP suffered another electoral setback, losing municipal elections in the capital city Delhi to the AAP
While the AAP was not expected to win in Gujarat, its high-octane campaign is seen to have aided party leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s move towards the national political stage.
The 10-year-old party, which was born out of an anti-corruption movement, is in power in Delhi, Punjab and Goa. With the Gujarat results, AAP leaders and political analysts said the party had acquired national status.
The AAP is looking at a vote share of around 13 per cent in Gujarat. With the win, the party fulfils the Election Commission criteria of having a minimum 6 per cent vote share in four states to be a national party. There are currently eight national parties in India.
“Gujarat’s people have given us the national status that only a few parties have,“ said Mr Kejriwal in a video message.
Political analyst Praveen Rai at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies said: “The election trends show the BJP scripting a humongous victory in Gujarat, Congress staging a superb comeback in Himachal Pradesh and the AAP achieving a milestone status of a national party.”
These state elections are seen to be the start of the run-up to the 2024 General Election, where Mr Modi will be seeking a third term as prime minister.
Author and journalist Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay said the Gujarat win was a boost for the BJP.
“I think the BJP will treat this as the beginning to the run-up of 2024. Mr Modi will immediately start going to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka, which are the big states going to the polls in 2023 ahead of general election,” he said.
“They (state elections) definitely set the tone for the general election. It builds up the momentum and energises party cadres, which is very important.”
For now, the BJP is seen to have dominance in national politics, as the opposition remains fragmented, and the Congress continues to fight for political relevance.
“Unless something really dramatic happens, it would be difficult to challenge the BJP at the national level as of now,” said Dr Shastri.
But he noted that things could also change. “Seventeen months is a long time,” he said.
