PM Modi may address India’s ethnic violence in no-confidence vote

NEW DELHI – Prime Minister Narendra Modi may address the deadly ethnic violence in north-east India before a no-confidence vote brought by the opposition this week in an attempt to force a debate in a legislature dominated by his allies. 

Mr Modi will not lose the parliamentary vote scheduled for Thursday as the coalition led by his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a supermajority in the Lower House.

The opposition is instead focusing on pressuring Mr Modi over his government’s handling of the killings in remote Manipur state bordering Myanmar ahead of a national vote due by May 2024. 

The Prime Minister is never far from the public eye, with daily social media posts and trips to the United States and Australia in 2023. But he has yet to fully address the ethnic clashes that have left more than 150 people dead and displaced 50,000 since May in Manipur – a state controlled by his party.

“This is going to be a battle of perception,” said Ms Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based political analyst who has written about Indian politics for nearly three decades. 

“What the opposition is going to do in the no-confidence motion is to put the BJP in the dock on a whole range of issues starting with complete administrative and law and order failure in Manipur, which they feel is the result of BJP’s divisive policies.”  

When a video surfaced of two women being paraded naked and allegedly raped in Manipur, Mr Modi made his first public comment in July focusing on safety for women.

He did not speak on the ongoing dispute between two ethnic groups – the Christian Kukis and the Hindu Meiteis – over access to affirmative action benefits. 

Mr Modi’s opponents say the Hindu-dominant BJP has made the South Asian country less tolerant of religious and ethnic minorities – with the recent spate of violence reinforcing this view.

Last week, clashes between Hindus and Muslims during a religious procession left seven people dead near New Delhi’s international airport. 

Since taking power in 2014, Mr Modi has come under fire for pushing a Hindu nationalist agenda and coming down hard on dissenting voices, including news organisations, non-governmental organisations and research groups.

He remains popular, with surveys showing approval ratings above 60 per cent, and is likely to win a third term in the national election next summer. 

This week’s no-confidence vote is the second for Mr Modi. The first was in 2018 when he easily defeated a motion filed by the opposition which said his government failed on economic, defence and foreign policies. 

The opposition got a boost on Monday with Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi reinstated as a lawmaker after a stay by India’s top court on his defamation conviction.

Mr Gandhi, who is positioning himself to be a direct challenger to Mr Modi in the elections, was to kick off the no-confidence debates on Tuesday. 

Mr Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a Congress party official, said: “We will compel the Prime Minister to spell out the grave situation prevailing in Manipur.

“We will be able to expose the government’s shortcomings and failures.”

Congress party, which usually leads the opposition, is looking to build momentum from its rare election victory in the southern state of Karnataka in May.

The party also wants to highlight the rising cost of living during the debate with the latest surge in the prices of tomato – a key ingredient in Indian cuisine. 

BJP officials said the party and Mr Modi will retain power in the next election despite the issues.

“People have already shown their no confidence in the arrogant opposition alliance,” Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur said. BLOOMBERG