Monsoon rains arrive early in India's Kerala coast

NEW DELHI (BLOOMBERG, REUTERS) - India's annual monsoon, which delivers about 70 per cent of the country's rainfall, arrived earlier than normal on the coast of southern Kerala state on Sunday (May 29), the state-run India Meteorological Department said.

The monsoon, which waters more than half of India’s farmland, normally arrives in Kerala on June 1.

The early onset raised hopes that output of crops such as rice and oilseeds will get a boost after a brutal heatwave hit winter-sown wheat and prompted the country to restrict exports. 

The Meteorological Department had forecast on May 13 that monsoon rains were likely to reach Kerala on May 27, and on Friday said conditions were becoming favourable for the onset of the monsoon over Kerala during the following two to three days.

The livelihood of millions of farmers in the country of about 1.4 billion people depends on rains brought by the winds from the Indian Ocean. The farm sector is the main source of income for 60 per cent of its population.

A monsoon failure can force New Delhi to import more edible oils and curb exports of some agricultural produce, sending international prices higher.

Farming contributes around 15 per cent to India's US$2.7 trillion (S$3.7 trillion) economy while sustaining more than half the country's population.

The monsoon is critical to India’s farm output and economic growth at a time when the country, where man-made systems such as canals and tube wells irrigate only a part of the land, is battling soaring food prices. The war in Ukraine has pushed up world food costs to a record. 

India is forecast to witness a normal rainy season for a fourth year. Showers during the June-to-September period would provide relief to people, especially in central and north-western parts, after temperatures at some places hovered near 50 deg C this month, with the risk of sun strokes and heat exhaustion forcing people to stay indoors.

The northern region was the warmest in 122 years in both March and April this year. The extreme weather exacerbated the country’s power crisis and slashed crop output. A reduction of more than 5 per cent in wheat output estimates and concerns about high prices prompted the government to restrict wheat exports, and limit sugar shipments as a precautionary measure. 

Timely and normal rains are set to boost production outlook for monsoon-sown crops such as rice, soya beans and pulses and help in softening soaring inflation. Bountiful rains would also fill reservoirs, which, in turn, would brighten prospects for winter crops, usually planted during October and November.