Modi’s Hindu right targets gains in India’s elections: What to know

NEW DELHI – Across India, a recent round of state legislative elections has set up a gargantuan political test.

The results on May 4 will set the landscape before national elections in 2029; reshape the balance of power in Parliament’s Upper Chamber; and test the limits of the Hindu nationalist expansion of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has held the reins in New Delhi since 2014.

Four states – Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu – cast ballots in April that will be counted on May 4. The results, along with those in the smaller territory of Puducherry, will determine who governs those areas.

The elections are seen as crucial for the BJP, which lost its majority in the national Parliament in June 2024.

Since then, Mr Modi and his team have focused on winning each and every state election up for grabs. Critics have accused his party of using a voter roll audit to its benefit by disenfranchising sections of the electorate.

Here is what to know about India’s latest state elections:

Which states voted?

West Bengal: Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress party has held power for 15 years in India’s fourth-most-populous state, home to 105 million people. She is seeking a record fourth term in the face of a rising challenge from the BJP, which has never held power in West Bengal but has made big gains there in recent years.

Assam: The BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking a second term as the state’s chief minister. Mr Sarma, who left the opposition Congress party in 2015, has helped turn longstanding anxiety in Assam about the influx of Bengali-speaking migrants from Bangladesh into a panic about Muslim “infiltrators”.

Kerala: Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan from Left Democratic Front is seeking a third term in this southern state. He is battling a revitalised opposition led by the Congress party, his traditional rival. The BJP has only recently made headway in Kerala, securing a handful of seats in 2016 and 2024. Nearly half of Kerala’s voters are either Christian or Muslim, leaving little purchase for the BJP’s Hindu politics.

Tamil Nadu: Politics in the state have long been dominated by two parties with origins in and ties to the Dravidian movement, a decades-old political and cultural force that appeals to a sense of regional identity and social justice. They are challenged by a new party led by popular film actor Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar. The BJP has never found much success in Tamil Nadu.

Puducherry: A small territory of 1.2 million people abutting Tamil Nadu, Puducherry is led by Mr N. Rangaswamy, an ally of the BJP, which has long depended on shifting partnerships between national and regional parties.

What is at stake?

India’s 28 states and eight union territories are in many ways more like the European Union than the US. Most have their own languages and cultures.

Under India’s federal architecture, state governments hold near-total sway over the police, education, healthcare, agriculture and infrastructure. State elections choose representatives who sit in their own legislative assemblies.

While India’s prime minister is picked through national elections, state elections matter more to the daily lives of its 1.4 billion people, ranging from the quality of a village clinic to safety on the streets.

But the prime minister has significant discretionary power over grants, infrastructure packages and emergency relief. This sets the stage for conflict between the national government and states controlled by opponents that can turn into gridlock.

Where is the biggest showdown?

In West Bengal, in India’s east, the election looks like a litmus test for Mr Modi. Capturing the state would be a strategic achievement for the BJP.

Mr Modi’s rival, Ms Banerjee, is facing simmering resentment over issues, including allegations of corruption, unemployment and women’s safety, after the rape and killing of a trainee doctor at a Kolkata hospital in 2024. The BJP is fielding the mother of the victim as a candidate.

The BJP came in second in West Bengal’s elections five years ago, ahead of India’s Communist Party, which once ruled the state. If the BJP wins in West Bengal, analysts say, it can win anywhere.

Why are some voters missing?

India’s national Election Commission is deleting names from voter rolls.

In West Bengal, roughly nine million names – more than 10 per cent of the state’s electorate – were purged, officially to clean up bookkeeping errors.

Muslims make up almost 30 per cent of the state’s population and a disproportionate share of voters struck from the rolls.

The BJP has framed the move as a crackdown on unlawful immigrants from Bangladesh. Ms Banerjee’s government calls it an attempt to disenfranchise Indian Muslims.

What is the national impact?

India’s state elections shape national power by determining who sits in the Parliament in New Delhi. Most members of the Parliament’s Upper House are elected by the states’ legislators.

There are 245 seats in the Upper House, with 141 belonging to the BJP and its allies, leaving them short of the two-thirds majority needed to change the country’s Constitution. Gains in these state elections would move the BJP closer to that threshold. NYTIMES