India’s slow non-fossil energy progress puts its climate ambitions at risk

NEW DELHI – At the 26th UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in 2021, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his country’s bold target of

increasing non-fossil energy capacity nearly fivefold to 500 gigawatts (GW) by 2030.

But three years on, the likelihood of India reaching that goal is in question.

Less than half of the wind, solar, hydro, bio power and nuclear projects needed to achieve this target have been installed. Its pace of renewable capacity build-up – just 18.48GW was added between April 2023 and March 2024, for instance – is slower than what is needed to meet the 2030 goal.

This not only puts India’s broader climate targets at risk but is also driving increased investment in polluting coal power generation, as the country’s growing energy needs outstrip growth in renewables. 

Ramping up green energy is key to India’s Glasgow pledge of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, which is two decades later than developed nations.

These climate and green energy goals will face scrutiny at

the COP29 UN climate talks in Baku

from Nov 11 to 22 and even after, as India, along with nearly 200 nations party to the UN Paris Agreement, must submit a new set of plans by early 2025 setting out their more ambitious targets for 2035.

India – the world’s third-largest greenhouse gas emitter – is predicted to be the world’s largest energy consumer by 2050, so reducing its dependence on fossil fuels is key if the world is to limit global warming.

The country currently relies on coal to generate around 70 per cent of its electricity. Burning coal is the single largest source of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas heating the planet and causing deadly air pollution.

India’s renewable energy capacity crossed the 200GW mark in October and accounts for 46.3 per cent of the country’s total electricity generation capacity.

In stark contrast, China hit 1,200GW of solar and wind generation capacity in August, six years before its intended 2030 deadline and less than four years after the target was announced in 2020.

To hit its target, India has to add about 50GW of renewable energy capacity yearly over the next six years – far higher than the average of around 13GW it has added annually for the past five fiscal years.

Even with 15GW of additional nuclear capacity expected to come online by 2030, reaching the 500GW target remains a formidable challenge, experts say. 

“India could miss the 500GW target,” said Ms Vibhuti Garg, South Asia director at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

“And I think one of the big reasons would be transmission infrastructure not being available,” she told The Straits Times.

Large-scale solar and wind energy projects are being developed in remote areas, such as the deserts of Rajasthan in north-western India. The energy produced in the area has to be connected to the grid via power lines and substations, but this is not happening fast enough.

Another key reason for the slow roll-out of renewable energy projects is the challenge of acquiring large tracts of land needed for large-scale solar and wind parks.

An IEEFA briefing note released on Nov 5 identified inadequate transmission infrastructure, land acquisition delays, poor financial health of state-run power distribution companies and insufficient battery storage as key hurdles in the growth of renewable energy in the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat, the top two leaders driving India’s green energy growth.

In 2022, India fell short of its target of 175GW renewable capacity due to underwhelming progress in rooftop solar and wind energy projects.

Since then, India has ramped up its coal-fired capacity to meet its growing energy demand, with the country announcing in July it would bolster its coal-powered generation capacity by at least 80GW by 2031-2032.

Solar power generation grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first half of 2024, Reuters reported in July, citing an analysis of data from the federal grid regulator.

Total electricity generation for the fiscal year ending March 2025 is expected to grow at its fastest pace in over a decade – forecast to be mainly powered by an 8.9 per cent growth in coal-fired power output and an 8.2 per cent growth in renewable energy.

The IEEFA brief suggests Rajasthan and Gujarat should focus on expanding distributed renewable energy, such as through rooftop solar units; set up dedicated infrastructure funds to finance renewable energy projects; and ramp up battery storage to ensure they do not lose their growth momentum.

Despite multiple challenges, the government maintains it is on track to achieve its 2030 non-fossil fuel capacity target, with a record 35GW of solar and wind capacity expected to be connected to the grid by March 2025.

Mr Saurabh Kumar, from Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, said India risks achieving only around 320GW by 2030 unless it boosts battery storage and promoting distributed renewable energy.

“I am certain if nothing is done (on these two fronts), India will miss the (500GW) target,” said Mr Kumar, who is vice-president for India at the collective – which brings together philanthropic, government, technology, policy and financing partners.

He added that “solarising” agriculture by installing small-scale but widespread solar energy plants near farms to provide renewable electricity to farmers could not just help India achieve its 500GW target by 2030 “but possibly exceed it”.

Agriculture accounts for around 18 per cent of India’s electricity consumption, with farmers using power to irrigate their fields and for other purposes, but the penetration of renewables in this sector has been slow.

A federal government programme to promote the use of solar irrigation pumps has made little progress since its launch in 2019, with less than 1GW capacity installed because of difficult access to land and other issues.

But Rajasthan, Mr Kumar noted, has undertaken several innovative reforms in recent years to encourage farmers to rent out land for this purpose, with the state now aiming to achieve around 4.4GW of solar capacity under this federal programme by early 2026 – up from zero in 2024.

Maharashtra has also announced a target to install 7GW of solar power for farmers by the end of 2025 under a similar programme.

“If more such states join in, it is not going to be very difficult to reach 100GW,” Mr Kumar said.

He told ST that missing the 500GW non-fossil fuel target could derail India’s 2070 net-zero goal, as it would instead force the country to rely more on coal to meet its growing energy needs.

“I think it is therefore absolutely critical that we achieve this target with adequate energy storage systems and distributed renewable energy. Otherwise, it’ll be a massive disaster.”