India heatwaves set to last longer than usual amid power grid strain

NEW DELHI – India is preparing for a blistering summer until the monsoon rain arrives in June, with above-normal heat already straining power grids as the country grapples with energy shortages.

Heatwaves are forecast to persist for longer than usual in densely populated states of western and eastern India, the country’s weather forecaster said on May 1. Areas such as Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of the foothills of the Himalayas will see more days of unusually high temperatures in May, typically the peak of the pre-monsoon summer.

Other regions will also witness heatwave days, but for shorter periods, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a briefing that overall predicted normal to below-normal maximum temperatures for May. It had earlier forecast a higher-than-usual number of heat days for May and June.  

The news will bring scant relief to a country struggling to cope under the combined pressure of warmer-than-usual April days and the fallout from the war in the Persian Gulf.

With vital energy suppliers cut off from world markets, India has been left short of crude, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking.

Data from the digital air-quality monitoring platform AQI earlier this week showed that all 50 hottest cities in the world were in India.

“India occupied the entire list, from rank 1 to rank 50,” AQI said in a report. “This is not a normal April. And it demands a serious, data-grounded reckoning.”

The rankings are based on sustained temperatures through 24 hours of the day on April 27. A city can report a scorching afternoon maximum but could rank lower if it cools off during the nights, AQI said, explaining the methodology.

At the top of the list was Banda, an arid town in the water-starved Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh.

According to AQI, it hit a top temperature of 46.2 deg C during the day – but its lowest, which typically comes after midnight, was 34.7 deg C – a level higher than what most of Europe considers a dangerous summer heatwave. The IMD put the maximum that day at an even loftier 47.6 deg C.

All the while, heat is pushing up electricity demand to unprecedented levels, triggering blackouts as infrastructure and generation struggle to cope.

Temperatures have surged beyond 40 deg C in April – punishing levels given the humidity – and nights offer only mild relief, forcing residents to run cooling appliances around the clock.

The IMD said above-normal minimum temperatures were likely in May over many regions.

“The impact of climate change is more on night temperatures. In the long term, the temperatures are seeing a rising trend,” said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of meteorology at IMD, adding that cloudy conditions trap heat and exacerbate the problem.

The resulting demand for round-the-clock power is testing the ability of India’s electricity system to provide an uninterrupted supply.

The rapid addition of renewable capacity over the past decade and the more recent revival of coal-fired generation have ensured there is enough power-station capacity to meet daytime requirements. But without solar, which accounts for about 30 per cent of total generation capacity, nights are a challenge.

All the more so with LNG imports hampered by the war, starving gas-powered plants that can provide a vital bridge. Almost 21 gigawatts of coal and nuclear power capacity, meanwhile, were under maintenance shutdowns as at April 28, according to government data, mostly due to forced outages.

Since temperatures shot up in April, India has reported night-time shortfalls as high as 5.4 gigawatts – the equivalent of serving roughly 2.7 million rural homes.

El Nino conditions are expected to prevail during the monsoon season from June to September, the IMD said during its briefing on May 1, suggesting a risk to rainfall that could further stress the power grid due to increased use of electricity for farm irrigation and prolonged dependence on cooling.

With blackouts becoming more frequent, residents have aired complaints on social media and, in some cases, as reported by local media, taken to the streets. In Punjab, among the earliest provinces to be hit by scheduled blackouts, the main opposition party Shiromani Akali Dal has organised a protest.

Another simpler factor is also leaving Indian households in the dark – the impact of high heat on power equipment, as overloading compounds stress created by sweltering temperatures.

“Consumers need to be more diligent,” said Mr Sarnath Ganguly, senior vice-president at Noida Power, which distributes power in Noida, an industrial city bordering New Delhi.

Distribution companies should identify overloaded transformers and improve capacity well before the summer, he added.

“Both sides need to maintain such discipline to prevent outages,” he said. BLOOMBERG