How India and Pakistan pulled back from the brink with US-brokered ceasefire
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An Indian paramilitary soldier carrying an explosives detector in Srinagar, Kashmir, on May 13. India and Pakistan claim the region in full but control only parts of it.
PHOTO: AFP
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ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI – At 2.09am on May 10, Mr Ahmad Subhan, who lives near an airbase in the Pakistan military garrison city of Rawalpindi, heard the first explosion that rattled the windows of his house – and took South Asia to the brink of war.
As dawn broke, the heaviest fighting in decades between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan reached a crescendo, after nearly three weeks of escalating tensions.
Fighter jets and missiles criss-crossed the skies of one of the world’s most populated regions. Pakistani officials said they would convene an emergency meeting of their top nuclear decision-making body.
The critical eight-hour window also saw Indian missile barrages on three major Pakistan airbases and other facilities, including Nur Khan, which is ringed by civilian homes like Mr Subhan’s, and just a 20-minute drive to the capital, Islamabad.
After the initial blast, Mr Subhan and his wife grabbed their three children and ran out of their home.
“We were just figuring out what had happened when there was another explosion,” said the retired government employee, who remembered the precise time of the strike because he was just about to make a call.
This account of the May 10 events – which began with the looming spectre of a full-blown war and ended with an evening ceasefire announcement
They described the rapid escalation of hostilities as well as behind-the-scenes diplomacy involving the US, India and Pakistan, and underscore the key role played by Washington in brokering peace.
The attack on Nur Khan airbase saw at least two missile strikes as well as drone attacks, according to Mr Subhan and two Pakistani security officials, who like some of the people interviewed by Reuters, spoke on condition of anonymity.
The barrage took out two roofs and hit the hangar of a refuelling plane, which was airborne at the time, according to one of the officials, who visited the base the next day.
A senior Indian military officer, however, told reporters on May 11 that an operation command centre at Nur Khan had been hit.
“The attack on Nur Khan... close to our capital, that left us with no option but to retaliate,” Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters.
Nur Khan is located just over a mile from the military-run body responsible for Pakistan’s nuclear planning.
So, an attack on the facility may have been perceived as more dangerous than India intended – and the two sides should not conclude that it is possible to have a conflict without it going nuclear, said Associate Professor Christopher Clary, of the University at Albany in New York.
“If you are playing Russian roulette and pull the trigger, the lesson isn’t that you should pull the trigger again,” said Prof Clary.
India’s defence and foreign ministries, as well as Pakistan’s military and its foreign ministry, did not immediately answer written questions submitted by Reuters.
A US State Department spokesperson did not directly respond to questions from Reuters about the American role, but said that further military escalation posed a serious threat to regional stability.
Vance calls Modi
India and Pakistan have fought three major wars and been at loggerheads since their independence. The spark for the latest chaos was an April 22 attack in Indian Kashmir
It was the latest of many disputes
Hindu-majority India has accused its Muslim-majority neighbour of arming and backing militant groups operating in Kashmir, but Pakistan maintains it only provides diplomatic support to Kashmiri separatists.
After a go-ahead from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian military on May 7 carried out air strikes
In air battles that followed, Pakistan said it shot down five Indian aircraft, including prized Rafale planes New Delhi recently acquired from France. India has indicated that it suffered losses and inflicted some of its own.
Senior US officials became seriously concerned by May 9 that the conflict was at risk of spiralling out of control, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
That evening, Mr Modi took a call from US Vice-President J.D. Vance, who presented a potential off-ramp to the Indian Prime Minister that he described as a path the Pakistanis would also be amenable to, the people said.
Mr Vance’s intervention came despite him saying publicly on May 8 that the US was “not going to get involved in the middle of war that’s fundamentally none of our business”.
The sources did not provide specifics but said that Mr Modi was non-committal. One of the people also said that Mr Modi told Mr Vance, who had been visiting India during the Kashmir attack, that any Pakistani escalation would be met by an even more forceful response.
Hours later, according to Indian officials, that escalation came: Pakistan launched attacks on at least 26 locations in India in the early hours of May 10.
Pakistan said their strikes occurred only after the pre-dawn Indian attack on its airbases, including Nur Khan.
A satellite image showing Nur Khan airbase in Islamabad, Pakistan, on May 11, after it was targeted by an Indian missile attack.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Nuclear signals
A little over an hour after that Indian attack began, Pakistan military spokesman Lieutenant-General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry confirmed Indian strikes on three airbases.
Some Indian strikes on May 10 also utilised the supersonic BrahMos missile, according to a Pakistani official and an Indian source. Pakistan believes the BrahMos is nuclear-capable, though India says it carries a conventional warhead.
By 5am local time on May 10, Pakistan's military announced it had launched operations against Indian airbases and other facilities.
About two hours later, Pakistani officials told journalists that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had called a meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA), which oversees the nuclear arsenal.
Pakistan Foreign Minister Dar told Reuters on May 13 that any international alarm was overblown: “There was no such concern. There should not be. We are a responsible nation.”
But signalling an intention to convene NCA reflected how much the crisis had escalated and “may also have been an indirect call for external mediation”, said Mr Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia expert.
About an hour after the NCA announcement, the US said Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken to Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir – widely regarded as the most powerful man in that country – and was pushing both sides to de-escalate.
Mr Rubio also soon got on the phone with Mr Dar and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar.
“Rubio said that Indians were ready to stop,” Mr Dar told Reuters. “I said if they are ready to stop, ask them to stop, we will stop.”
An Indian official with knowledge of Mr Rubio's call with Mr Jaishankar said that Mr Rubio passed on a message that the Pakistanis were willing to stop firing if India would also cease.
‘Great intelligence’
Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, who only days earlier warned of conflict, dialled into a local TV news channel at around 10.30am on May 10.
Some 2½ hours after Pakistani officials shared news of the NCA meeting, Mr Asif declared that no such event had been scheduled, putting a lid on the matter.
The international intervention anchored by Mr Rubio paved the way to a cessation of hostilities formalised in a mid-afternoon phone call between the directors-general of military operations (DGMO) of India and Pakistan. The two spoke again on May 12.
Pakistan’s Lt-Gen Chaudhry said in a briefing that New Delhi had initially requested a call between the DGMOs after the Indian military’s May 7 strikes across the border.
Islamabad responded to the request only on May 10, following its retaliation and requests from international interlocutors, according to Lt-Gen Chaudhry, who did not name the countries.
Almost exactly 12 hours after Pakistan said it had launched retaliatory strikes against India for hitting three key airbases, Mr Trump declared on social media there would be a cessation of hostilities.
“Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence,” he said. REUTERS
