From friends to foes: Pakistan, Taliban and the makings of a bigger war

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan and Afghanistan are back on a war footing after a three-day ceasefire over Eid al-Fitr, which marked the end of the Muslim fasting month, dashing hopes for a lasting peace.

The foreign office of Pakistan said on March 26 that the operation in Afghanistan has resumed and will continue until the ​Afghan Taliban reviews its misplaced priority of supporting terrorist infrastructure.

Before the ceasefire, the conflict had escalated sharply when Pakistan struck a hospital in Kabul on March 16, killing at least 143 people.

The air strike, which Pakistan says targeted an ammunition dump, is only the latest chapter in a conflict that analysts warn could spiral into a far broader and deadlier war, drawing in other armed groups and further destabilising an already volatile region.

There has been an increase in terrorist attacks over the last few years by the Pakistani Taliban network, particularly the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Pakistani military data shows a steep rise in overall attacks – from 1,950 in 2024 to 3,387 in 2025, with 2,115 terrorist fatalities.

The Global Terrorism Index 2026 identified Pakistan as the country most impacted by terrorism, with the TTP remaining the deadliest terrorist organisation in the nation for a fifth consecutive year. 

The hostilities mark a shift from the previously close ties between Islamabad and the Taliban. The Pakistan government had backed the Taliban against the former West-backed Afghan government before the US withdrawal.

But relations have deteriorated since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 after the US pulled out.  

The conflict stems from a complex set of factors, which includes a historical border rivalry, their support for various non-state actors during different periods, and Pakistan’s concerns over growing Indian influence in Kabul. 

Air strike on Kabul hospital 

Tensions escalated significantly after the attack on the Kabul hospital, which serves as a rehabilitation centre.

Taliban deputy spokesman Hamdullah Fitrat claimed that more than 400 drug addicts seeking treatment were killed and around 250 were injured.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan verified 143 deaths and 119 injured. Independent confirmation of the incident remained a challenge even a week later. 

Mr Mohammad Ameen, a 37-year-old radiology worker at the hospital, told The Straits Times that many patients had been living in makeshift container-style units and only a handful survived the air strike.

“The scene was beyond frightening,” he said. “Survival depended entirely on where people were at the time... In the sections that were directly struck, no one was left alive.”

Another eyewitness, Mr Amjid Ali, 29, who lives in the vicinity, recalled the panic. 

“We didn’t understand what was happening at first,” he told ST. “Then we saw parts of the building destroyed and people trapped underneath. It was a desperate situation and there was nothing we could do to help.”

Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said the strike targeted an ammunition dump aiding the Pakistani Taliban.

This aligned with Pakistan’s previous allegations that the TTP was using NATO-grade equipment left behind by the US in Afghanistan, now in the hands of the Afghan Taliban.

Lieutenant-General Ahmad Sharif Chaudhry, a spokesman for the Pakistani military, alleged in an interview with Pakistani media that the drug addicts were being used as suicide bombers. “If the facility housed drug addicts, they were being indoctrinated to become suicide bombers,” he said. 

While the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict seems to have evaded much global attention, the attack on the hospital drew wide condemnation from India and human rights organisations.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs called it “another act of aggression by a Pakistani establishment that remains hostile to the idea of a sovereign Afghanistan”. 

New Delhi airlifted 2.5 tonnes of medical aid into Kabul as a gesture of solidarity for the victims of the bombing.

The earlier phase of the conflict began on Oct 9, 2025, when Pakistan targeted what it described as TTP hideouts in Kabul.

The strikes coincided with a week-long visit to India by Afghan interim Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

Islamabad has long accused New Delhi of supporting the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch separatists in Afghanistan. However, India has denied these accusations. 

China and Russia, which maintain ties with the Taliban and Pakistani leadership, have called on both sides to resolve their differences through diplomatic means.

A flashpoint with no easy fix

As Pakistan’s military attacks in Afghanistan escalated, some senior Pakistani officials threatened to pursue a regime change in Afghanistan, although this is not the stated policy of Islamabad. 

Even if Pakistan seeks such a change, it is unclear if the country can make it happen or who could replace the Taliban in Kabul. 

Mr Syed Muhammad Ali, a security analyst and faculty member of the National Defence University in Islamabad, told ST: “Pakistan’s policy primarily concentrated on countering terrorism.

“Despite being in power for four years, the Taliban has neither met any international commitment like the Doha agreement nor focused on rehabilitation and construction of the country.” 

The Doha Agreement, a peace deal signed on Feb 29, 2020, between the US and the Taliban in Doha, includes key provisions such as the Taliban serving as an interim government, leading to a process for an inclusive government that represents all segments of Afghanistan.

Border clashes between the two sides have become a regular occurrence since 2022. 

While Pakistan views border fencing as a counterterrorism necessity, the Taliban has resisted it, dismantling sections of the fence and asserting that it divides Pashtun communities. 

Unlike Pakistan, the Taliban regime and the TTP do not recognise the Durand Line, which forms a substantial section of the border. 

In response to Pakistan’s military actions, the Taliban responded with a full escalation along  the border in October 2025. 

A ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey proved to be short-lived.

The Taliban claims that no meaningful discussions with Pakistan have taken place over the Durand Line. It considers the TTP as Pakistan’s internal problem that existed even before the Taliban regime came into power. 

The current deep distrust and conflict between the two sides risk displacing more civilians in the border areas and worsening humanitarian conditions, while providing opportunities for the growth of other terrorist groups, including Islamic State affiliates and Al-Qaeda. 

The World Food Programme estimates that the ongoing conflict has displaced an additional 20,000 families.

The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is particularly dire – a refugee population recently repatriated from Iran and Pakistan has been forced into camps due to a severe housing crisis.

This compounds an already catastrophic situation in the country, where millions of people need humanitarian aid due to factors such as economic collapse and restrictions on aid delivery.

Analyst Riccardo Valle, Director of Research at The Khorasan Diary, a research platform based in Islamabad, anticipates renewed fighting, potentially involving more actors as grievances escalate.

Without sustained regional intervention or resolution of core disputes, the border remains a flashpoint and the risk of a broader, deadlier conflict persists, he said. 

“There are multiple reasons to believe the current crisis will further develop into a deadlier and threatening actor against Pakistan,” he added.

“(There is) the risk that more people from Afghanistan will join the ranks of the Taliban for revenge as a backlash for more reckless actions in Afghanistan.”