Aam Aadmi Party looks to make a dent in Gujarat state polls

NEW DELHI - In the western state of Gujarat, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is looking to win a fifth consecutive term in the December assembly elections.

But the bigger political story is the 10-year-old Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is seeking to increase its political influence beyond capital city Delhi and Punjab state, which it won early in 2022, and emerge as a national party.

The elections are being held in two phases on Dec 1 and Dec 5. The results will be out on Dec 8.

While the BJP remains the front runner, opinion polls have shown that the AAP is set to gain votes at the expense of Congress, the leading opposition party.

AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal has promised 300 units of free electricity, 3,000 rupees (S$50) in monthly unemployment allowance and 1,000 rupees for women above 18. But the BJP has criticised it as propagating an unhealthy culture of political freebies.

He has also taken a leaf out of the BJP’s political playbook and sought to tap into Hindu nationalism, suggesting recently that images of Hindu gods Lakshmi and Ganesh should be printed on currency notes along with that of Mahatma Gandhi.

“Had people in Gujarat been happy, we would not have got a space in (Gujarat state’s) politics,” Mr Kejriwal recently said in remarks to the Indian media.  He said the AAP, which opinion polls suggest will win a vote share of between 20 per cent and 30 per cent, “reflects the anger of the common people against the state government”.

Journalist-turned-politician Isudan Gadhvi, 40, has been named the AAP’s chief ministerial candidate. He is a member of the Other Backward Class, a term given to those who come from educationally or socially weak or disadvantaged classes or castes. They account for 48 per cent of the state’s population.

Gujarat is a BJP bastion and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is credited for converting it into an economic powerhouse over the 13 years that he was chief minister between 2001 and 2014.

The BJP has ruled the state for 27 years straight. In the 2017 elections, it won 99 seats out of 182 seats, while Congress, the main opposition party, won 77 seats. The AAP did not contest the 2017 elections.

An opinion poll by ABP news C-Voter, which surveyed 22,807 people, found 56 per cent support for the BJP, 20 per cent for the AAP and 17 per cent for Congress.

The BJP, while battling anti-incumbency and governance issues, is banking on Mr Modi’s popularity and Hindu nationalism, apart from reaching out to different communities through meetings and candidate selections. In India, all political parties chose candidates based on caste calculations.

It is also focusing on the many years of its governance, particularly under Mr Modi, with the slogan of “We made Gujarat”.

“The BJP is largely holding its ground even though there is some dissonance and discontent, but AAP is  increasingly gaining a political foothold and could well challenge Congress as leading opposition to BJP. People still invest faith in the BJP for the solution of problems,” said Dr Sandeep Shastri, pro vice-chancellor of Jain University, who was involved in a recent survey on governance and development in Gujarat.

“As at now, this (BJP being the front runner) is the picture. Things could change with the campaign going forward.”

The Congress, while promising one million jobs, 3 million rupees’ waiver for farm loans and subsidised cooking gas, has released a critique of the state government, including the release for good behaviour of 11 Hindu men who were sentenced to life imprisonment for the rape of a Muslim woman during the 2002 riots.

The case had sparked national outrage and the Supreme Court is currently hearing a case against their release. The riots were sparked after a train carrying Hindu pilgrims was set on fire, killing 59. Over 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were killed in the riots.

The Congress, like the AAP, has also criticised the state government for

the collapse of a 134-year-old suspension bridge in Morbi town on Oct 30,

resulting in the death of 140 people. The BJP-led local administration and state government are both facing questions on how a clock-making firm was put in charge of the renovation of the bridge, which was allowed to reopen without safety checks.

But Vibes of India founding editor Deepal Trivedi reckons the bridge tragedy will have little impact politically due to other factors like polarisation of the Hindu vote and Mr Modi’s popularity.

“The BJP is in a strong position as at now,” she said.

“Gujaratis are known for their entrepreneurial skills and they find a great combination in Modi and (home minister) Amit Shah.”