Why Thailand’s ruling political clan faces a new threat

BANGKOK – Thailand’s most prominent political dynasty is on the brink of losing power once again.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is facing street protests and growing calls to resign amid mounting anger over

a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen,

in which she criticised the Thai army for its role in a border dispute with the neighbouring country. 

The controversy prompted the second-largest party in Thailand’s already fragile coalition government to quit on June 18, saying Ms Paetongtarn had damaged the country’s dignity.

If another key ally withdraws from the alliance, Ms Paetongtarn’s coalition will be reduced to a minority in the Lower House of Parliament. She may be forced to step down or call an early election to avoid a prolonged crisis. 

Elected via a parliamentary vote in August 2024 as the country’s youngest-ever leader, Ms Paetongtarn could become the third politician in the Shinawatra family to lose power before completing their term.

The turmoil will be a test of Thailand’s democracy, which has previously been interrupted by a number of coups as the royalist establishment engineered long stretches of military-backed rule. 

What triggered the latest political crisis? 

Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia escalated after

a May border clash in the disputed Chong Bok area left a Cambodian soldier dead.

Both sides reinforced their troop deployments in the region and restricted border crossings, and Cambodia’s government also imposed trade curbs. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute have so far failed. 

In the audio recording leaked by Mr Hun Sen, Ms Paetongtarn blamed the simmering weeks-long border stand-off on the Thai army.

She has apologised for the comments and said that her “sympathetic remarks and softer tone” during the conversation were part of a negotiating strategy to ease border tensions. 

Ms Paetongtarn has little political room to manoeuvre.

The exit of the royalist, conservative Bhumjaithai Party from her ruling coalition reduced the government’s position to 255 of the 495 seats in the House of Representatives, or just over a 51 per cent share. 

If she loses the House majority and dissolves Parliament, it would delay a new budget Bill and disrupt fiscal policy while the country prepares for a new general election.

Alternatively, her resignation would trigger a new prime ministerial vote.

Either scenario could further unnerve foreign investors, who have been selling Thai stocks amid the threat of double-digit US tariffs on goods from South-east Asia’s second-largest economy.

Who are the Shinawatras? 

The Shinawatras are descendants of a Chinese immigrant who married a Thai woman in the late 19th century.

They have been the driving force behind parties that won most of Thailand’s general elections since 2001, only to be booted out several times by the royalist establishment, which viewed them as a threat.

Three Shinawatras have occupied Thailand’s top political office at different times over the last two decades.

Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire father of Ms Paetongtarn, has been a polarising but enduring figure in politics since he first became prime minister in 2001.

He secured a second term in office with a landslide victory by his Thai Rak Thai Party in 2005, but this ended abruptly a year later in a military coup.

Mr Thaksin left Thailand in 2008 to avoid corruption charges that he said were politically motivated. 

His sister, Ms Yingluck Shinawatra, faced a similar fate after her Pheu Thai Party won the 2011 election and she became Thailand’s first female prime minister.

Ms Yingluck was ousted by judicial order in 2014, and weeks later her government was toppled in yet another coup. 

How did the Shinawatras return to high office?

In May 2023, after almost nine years of military-backed rule, elections were held in which Pheu Thai came second to Move Forward – a new party that found support among mostly young and urban voters with a campaign to change the lese majeste law, which restricts what can be said about the nation’s powerful monarchy. 

In response, Pheu Thai and conservative, pro-establishment parties joined forces and agreed to make Mr Srettha Thavisin prime minister of a new coalition government, in a deal that was brokered by Mr Thaksin and that allowed him to return from self-imposed exile.

Less than a year later, Mr Srettha was removed from office by a court order over an ethics violation case and Parliament voted for him to be succeeded by Mr Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Ms Paetongtarn.

How did the Shinawatras become popular? 

In the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Mr Thaksin spent heavily on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic demand, such as debt moratorium plans for farmers, low-cost housing projects and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises. 

A universal healthcare initiative revolutionised access to medical care for poorer citizens and still benefits millions of Thais two decades later.

Its “gold card” is held by 47 million people, or 70 per cent of the population. 

After the coup that toppled Mr Thaksin’s administration in 2006, his mostly rural supporters formed the pro-democracy “red shirt” movement to protest against his removal, and often clashed with a rival “yellow shirt” group made up of urban middle-class Thais who sought to push the Shinawatras out of Thai politics. 

Why is Thaksin’s political influence controversial? 

Stepping out of her father’s shadow has been challenging for Ms Paetongtarn as Mr Thaksin is seen as the unofficial power behind Pheu Thai.

She faced questions over whether Mr Thaksin wields significant influence over her administration – concerns which sparked dozens of complaints that sought to disqualify her from office and dissolve the Pheu Thai party. 

Even if Ms Paetongtarn survives the current crisis, she could still face political blowback from her father’s legal troubles.

Mr Thaksin has a royal insult trial hanging over him, in which he is accused of defaming the monarchy with remarks he made during an interview in 2015.

The hearing is scheduled for July 2025, the same month the Supreme Court will deliberate whether his time in a police hospital after returning from exile counts as having served his commuted prison sentence for corruption charges.

While the deal Mr Thaksin brokered in 2023 returned Pheu Thai to government, the alliance with the royalists damaged the party’s popularity and could affect its performance in the next general election, which is scheduled to take place in 2027 if the government completes a full term. 

After opposition party Move Forward was disbanded in 2024 – the Constitutional Court ruled it had violated election rules by promising to amend the lese majeste law – its leadership established the People’s Party, which has similar ambitions for wholesale political change.

The movement’s pledge to improve living standards with large-scale social welfare programmes has challenged Pheu Thai’s status as the party of the working class.

Many Thais are struggling with debt, inequality remains high, and a decline in poverty has slowed along with economic growth.

Why is there tension between the Shinawatras and the royalist establishment?

The Shinawatras’ electoral and financial clout has made them an intimidating rival to an elite made up of army generals, judges and senior civil servants that has dominated Thailand’s most powerful state institutions since the era of absolute monarchy ended in 1932. 

Mr Thaksin’s entrepreneurial success and personal ambition echoed the American Dream and resonated with many ordinary Thais who had become discontented with the paternalistic style of previous political leaders.

While many wealthier, well-educated and city-dwelling Thais accused Mr Thaksin of cronyism, populism and corruption, he enjoyed wide support among poorer and working-class voters in the country’s north and north-east.

The latter groups make up the majority of the electorate and benefited from Thaksin’s big-ticket economic programmes that came to be known as “Thaksinomics”. 

The groundswell of support for Mr Thaksin was seen by the establishment as a threat to the country’s social hierarchy, in which the monarchy is perceived to sit at the top.

How did the Shinawatras make their fortune? 

Mr Thaksin has portrayed himself as a self-made man from rural origins, but the family was relatively wealthy when he was growing up.

The root of their fortune was a silk business they established in the north of the country in the early 20th century. 

During a 14-year career in the police force, Mr Thaksin dabbled in silk retail, cinemas, real estate and computer leasing – with little success – before striking it rich in the technology boom of the 1980s and 1990s.

His head start in the computer business and his political connections allowed him to snap up government concessions to operate paging and mobile phone services, cable television subscriptions, data networks and satellites. 

At the height of his success, his Shin Corp, now called Intouch Holdings, owned Thai mobile operator Advanced Info Service and satellite firm Shin Satellite, now known as Thaicom.

Shin Corp was sold to Singapore investment company Temasek in 2006.

Today, Shinawatra family members, including Mr Thaksin’s former wife, daughter Ms Paetongtarn and her two older siblings – Mr Panthongtae and Ms Pintongta – control companies spanning real estate, healthcare and hospitality.

Some of those companies are listed on the Thai stock exchange, including property developer SC Asset, run by Thaksin’s son-in-law Nuttaphong Kunakornwong.

Ms Paetongtarn stepped down from positions in the private sector to comply with share ownership laws for members of a Cabinet. 

Why did Thaksin go into exile? 

Opponents accused Mr Thaksin of abusing his power to promote his family’s business interests.

Sales of the Shinawatras’ majority stakes in Shin Corp to a foreign company were seen as the final straw, and mass protests by the yellow shirts eventually led to Mr Thaksin’s downfall.

Mr Thaksin claimed assassination attempts were made against him before and after the 2006 coup, making him fear for his safety. 

His then wife Potjaman Damapong was sentenced to prison for tax evasion linked to a transfer of Shin Corp shares, and Mr Thaksin decided to flee the country in 2008 to avoid corruption charges.

He spent the intervening years shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and London, and was found guilty in absentia in four graft cases. 

He was ordered to serve eight years in prison for corruption after he returned to Thailand in 2023.

He was moved to a police hospital within hours of entering a Bangkok jail and his sentence was later commuted to one year in a royal pardon. Mr Thaksin was released early on special parole in February 2024. 

His sister Yingluck also fled Thailand in 2017 and a court later sentenced her to five years in prison for criminal negligence in a rice subsidy programme that cost the state billions of dollars.

She was ordered in May 2025 to pay a US$306 million (S$394 million) fine for losses incurred under the rice scheme. 

Although she remains in self-imposed exile, Mr Thaksin has mentioned efforts to bring her home some time in 2025. BLOOMBERG