What next for Thailand after Anutin’s surprise election win
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Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has pledged to preserve the country’s traditional power structures.
PHOTO: AFP
BANGKOK – An unexpected election victory
Mr Anutin rode a wave of nationalism fuelled by simmering tensions with neighbouring Cambodia and has pledged to preserve the country’s traditional power structures.
His party will now be the largest bloc in the 500-member House of Representatives, according to preliminary results, allowing him to form a coalition with a clear majority to govern.
The outcome marks the first electoral victory this century for a party aligned with the royalist, conservative establishment and is a major setback for the pro-democracy People’s Party, which polls had widely tipped to win.
Questions still remain over Mr Anutin’s ability to put the economy on a surer footing, given resistance to root-and-branch change from within the political establishment he represents.
What explains Anutin’s surprise election win?
The chain of events began after then Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted
Parliament was deadlocked for days, and the opposition People’s Party agreed to support Mr Anutin’s bid to become prime minister on the condition that he call a snap election that it was expected to win.
The gamble backfired.
The mood in Thailand took a more nationalist turn in the months leading up to the Feb 8 vote, bolstering support for the law-and-order platform promoted by the Bhumjaithai Party.
The movement used its time in office to consolidate power and fine-tune its electoral machine.
The People’s Party also suffered from its decision to cut a deal with Mr Anutin following Ms Paetongtarn’s downfall, which many of its supporters saw as a betrayal.
To them, Mr Anutin embodied the very political order that the People’s Party had vowed to dismantle.
How will the election outcome affect Thailand?
While it will still lack an outright majority in the Lower House, Bhumjaithai will re-enter Parliament significantly stronger as it already managed to consolidate control over the Senate in 2024.
That gives Mr Anutin more sway over key legislation and the independent agencies that investigate politicians, and more power to push back against constitutional amendments or other reforms sought by pro-democracy parties.
This reduces the likelihood of the kind of decision-making deadlock that made Thai politics so unstable in recent years.
The election result is a significant blow for the pro-democracy movement and its efforts to curb the political power of the royalist-military establishment. The establishment has relied on coups and the courts to oust multiple prime ministers since the turn of the century, including political patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra – Ms Paetongtarn’s father – and his allies.
For investors who often favour short-term stability, a Bhumjaithai-led coalition looks like the least-disruptive outcome, reducing the risk of unpredictable or abrupt policy shifts or renewed turmoil that could undermine business confidence.
On the global stage, Mr Anutin is likely to stick closely to Thailand’s traditionally pragmatic foreign policy, maintaining constructive ties with both the US and China while avoiding overt alignment with either.
What are Anutin’s political priorities?
Mr Anutin’s pledge to defend Thai sovereignty and national security resonated with voters following the bouts of border violence with Cambodia
Days before the election, he said he planned to revoke a 2001 agreement that Thailand signed with Cambodia aimed at settling a disputed maritime claim in the Gulf of Thailand, an area believed to hold significant natural gas reserves.
The two countries have been at odds over the territory since the 1970s.
He has also pledged to build physical barriers along the Thai-Cambodian land border.
As for the economy, Mr Anutin is likely to choose caution over transformation. Many Thais are struggling with near-stagnant wages and high debt.
Bhumjaithai’s election campaign emphasised economic stimulus and short-term measures to support growth rather than more profound changes to the way the economy functions.
One of the party’s flagship proposals would see the government cover a chunk of citizens’ everyday expenses, such as food and transport.
Bhumjaithai estimates its overall stimulus plan would cost about 148 billion baht (S$6 billion) a year, with the co-payment initiative accounting for about 44 billion baht.
The largest portion of spending would go to its low-cost energy plan, which aims to reduce electricity prices through renewable and community-based power generation.
Mr Anutin has called for decentralisation to give local governments greater control over their budgets, and increased public spending on infrastructure, transport and public health.
Bhumjaithai has also floated an initiative to hire 100,000 caregivers for Thailand’s ageing population and replace traditional conscription with a volunteer military force.
All this would leave the Thai economy’s more structural problems largely untouched as any fix would require deeper changes that challenge the status quo.
What challenges does Anutin face?
It is not clear if he can turn electoral momentum into a sustained economic turnaround.
Thailand is grappling with sluggish growth, waning competitiveness and a rapidly ageing population.
Growth has averaged about 1 per cent a year since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, trailing regional peers such as Vietnam and Indonesia, exacerbated by mounting global trade tensions.
While the election result is widely seen as the most market-friendly scenario, foreign investors have grown more cautious towards Thailand, leaving Mr Anutin with the challenge of restoring confidence and drawing more capital back into the economy.
He must also navigate conflicting political signals from voters.
While the election underscored broad support for the royalist-military establishment, Thais also chose in a referendum on the same day to replace the 2017 military-drafted Constitution.
While Mr Anutin has signalled support for a rewrite in principle, he has said any changes should stop short of altering the foundations of the royalist order.
Who is Anutin and how did he rise to power?
The son of former deputy prime minister Chavarat Charnvirakul, Mr Anutin entered politics in 1996 while still running his family’s business, Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction – now known as Stecon Group, one of the country’s largest builders.
His rise reflects years of patient coalition building rather than a sudden breakthrough.
He began his political career with Thai Rak Thai, the populist party founded by Thaksin Shinawatra.
After following Thaksin-aligned factions for many years, Mr Anutin eventually joined Bhumjaithai, which was formed in 2008 as a breakaway party.
After taking over as Bhumjaithai leader in 2012, he served as deputy prime minister under both civilian and military-backed governments, steadily expanding the party’s parliamentary footprint by consolidating regional power bases and co-opting influential local political dynasties.
Over time, Mr Anutin – known by his nickname “Nu” – recast himself as a dependable figure for the conservative establishment, whose backing, or at least tolerance, in a country where courts and coups routinely topple elected governments is critical.
Mr Anutin has cast himself as a reliable custodian of the status quo.
He was once dubbed the “Cannabis King” for spearheading Asia’s first cannabis decriminalisation policy in 2022, and the 59-year-old famously turned out to vote in a marijuana-print T-shirt in 2023.
This time around, he distanced himself from the issue in a bid to appeal to more conservative voters amid a wider backlash over the proliferation of cannabis dispensaries.
Although not a member of Thailand’s billionaire elite, he counts as one of the country’s wealthier politicians, with declared assets worth US$140 million (S$177 million).
Outside of politics, Mr Anutin collects Buddhist amulets and plays the saxophone and piano.
He also volunteers as a pilot for the Heart With Wings programme with the Thai Red Cross Society, using his private jet to deliver donated hearts for transplant patients. BLOOMBERG
