What next for Myanmar’s junta as civil war rages?

MYANMAR – Myanmar’s military has lost control of much of the country to armed ethnic groups and pro-democracy fighters in a civil war that has raged since the generals led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seized power in a coup.

The three-year conflict has alarmed Myanmar’s neighbour and main trading partner China, which has been trying to mediate a permanent ceasefire.

The army leadership has dug in, extending emergency rule and refusing opposition demands for a restoration of civilian, democratic government. Fighting has rocked the town of Lashio, home to the military’s north-eastern command, since July 2024, when an alliance of ethnic armed groups renewed an offensive against junta troops.

What has happened since the military seized power?

Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, toppled the civilian government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 after her party, the National League for Democracy, won parliamentary elections by a wide margin. The generals argued that the vote had been tainted by fraud, a claim denied by international observers.

Ms Suu Kyi was detained and her supporters took to the streets to demand her release and a return to civilian rule. The protests sparked violence across Myanmar that descended into civil war, and the junta declared martial law in some areas.

Military chief Min Aung Hlaing promised to hold elections in 2023 but then delayed the vote to 2025, citing the worsening security situation and the need for a national census ahead of the vote. Meanwhile, high food and fuel costs, a weakening local currency and a lack of dollars have left the economy “very weak”, according to the World Bank. 

What has been happening in the civil war? 

The conflict has “accelerated rapidly”, with the junta having lost control of townships covering 86 per cent of the country, according to a May report by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, an independent group of international experts. In the west, the military has lost most of Rakhine state and several towns in other provinces, including gem mining hub Mogok.

The focus of the fighting has shifted to northern Shan state, a former opium growing region that is now a centre for methamphetamine production.

The conflict has intensified since some of the armed ethnic groups launched an offensive called “Operation 1027” in late October 2023. Beijing brokered a ceasefire but fighting resumed in June.

Clashes have intensified as the groups advance toward Lashio, the capital of Shan state where the junta’s regional command is located. Analysts say that if Lashio falls, it will embolden the army’s opponents across the country. 

Is there a risk of the junta falling? 

News headlines suggesting the military may be losing its grip entirely do not give the full picture.

It still controls crucial infrastructure such as ports, the levers of government and swathes of the economy, and maintains its hold on the biggest cities. Its air force has been intensifying daily air strikes on anti-junta groups, blunting their ability to make more territorial gains. 

What has happened to deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi?

Ms Suu Kyi and former civilian president Win Myint were found guilty soon after the coup of inciting dissent against the military and flouting Covid-19 restrictions while campaigning during the November 2020 elections.

She was convicted in a series of trials on charges including corruption and violating the colonial-era Official Secrets Act, and sentenced to a total of 33 years in prison. Her defence team said the allegations against her were groundless and politically motivated.

In August 2023, the junta pardoned Ms Suu Kyi and Mr Win Myint on some of the charges, but they remained in prison. Ms Suu Kyi could spend the rest of her life in jail. Her whereabouts remain unknown and the authorities have barred her lawyers from meeting her since the last verdict in December 2022.

The junta has been trying to sell Ms Suu Kyi’s family mansion – a symbol of Myanmar’s struggle for democracy as she spent 15 years under house arrest there – but failed to attract bidders. It is set to go on sale again on Aug 15. 

What are the origins of the conflict?

It started out with a peaceful civil disobedience movement demanding the return of the civilian government. Eventually, Ms Suu Kyi’s supporters formed a parallel government, known as the National Unity Government, with armed units called the People’s Defence Force.

They joined up with armed ethnic groups who have battled the military for decades for the right to self-govern and manage resources. The military fought back with air strikes and executions but, by early 2022, the clashes had spread across Myanmar.

Between the start of the coup and late July, the junta had killed at least 5,467 civilians and arrested more than 27,000 others, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. 

What is China’s interest in Myanmar?

Beijing has been Myanmar’s top trading partner for decades. While scores of international firms exited the country due to US and European sanctions imposed after the coup, China remained the second-biggest investor in the country after Singapore, official data showed.

Beijing has been pushing the generals and their foes to crack down on gangs of scammers based in Myanmar border towns who target Chinese internet users. Myanmar handed over more than 49,000 suspects from July 2023 to May 2024, according to China’s Ministry of Public Security.

With the civil war raging on, Myanmar-China border trade has almost halved in value. On July 25, Beijing urged the warring sides to ensure the security of China’s borders as well as the interests of Chinese businesses and citizens in Myanmar. 

What is the history of Myanmar?

Modern Burma, as it was then known, emerged from British colonial rule after World War II and fell directly into conflict. Ethnic minorities make up a third of the population of 56 million and occupy half the country’s land, sitting on some of its most valuable resources, such as jade, gold, teak and opium.