Thailand may face dual water risks from El Nino impact from May to July

BANGKOK – Thailand could face a “dual water crisis” in 2026 after the Thai Meteorological Department forecast that El Nino could occur during May to July 2026, putting many areas at risk of water shortages.

This prompted the Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA) to accelerate nationwide response plans and monitor 20 branches at risk of shortages.

Climate experts have warned that Thailand is facing its most severe and difficult-to-predict climate variability in several years, creating the possibility of heavy rain, flooding and run-off at the same time.

Mr Tara Buakamsri, director of the Climate Connectors programme, said the World Meteorological Organisation had assessed that El Nino was highly likely to begin forming from mid-2026 and affect temperatures and rainfall patterns in many regions worldwide.

The latest signals from the equatorial Pacific Ocean show sea-surface temperatures warming rapidly, creating a chance that El Nino could return as early as May to July 2026.

He said: “There is currently no clear evidence that climate change is directly making El Nino occur more often or become more severe.

“However, global warming helps amplify the impacts of El Nino, making them more severe than before, because warmer oceans and atmosphere store more energy and moisture. This can lead to more frequent and more intense heatwaves, heavy rain and extreme weather.”

State of ‘water bankruptcy’

The United Nations said the world is moving into a state of “water bankruptcy” due to water use beyond ecosystems’ capacity.

Key data includes water levels in 70 per cent of major groundwater sources globally falling permanently – affecting nearly 2 billion people – and global wetlands shrinking by 4.1 million sq km.

Other key data includes glaciers worldwide declining by more than 30 per cent since 1970 and about 50 per cent of global food production being in areas with unstable water sources.

The situation reflects the long-term links between water resources, ecosystems and food security.

Thailand prepares for raw water shortage risk

PWA governor Chakapong Kamchan said that, based on the 2026 drought forecast, PWA had assessed areas that could lack raw water.

It found 20 branches in 17 provinces at risk over water volume and another seven branches in five provinces at risk over water quality.

To prepare, PWA has set measures in three main areas.

PWA said it will accelerate the procurement and management of backup water sources to ensure sufficient supply for tap water production throughout the year. It added that it will control production and distribution processes to maintain efficiency even in a crisis.

It will also provide free tap water to disaster-hit residents, it added.

In the past year, more than 52 million litres of water have been distributed free of charge.

Adaption under the NAP

The Thailand Environment Institute advised that responding to the water crisis must follow Thailand’s National Adaptation Plan, covering four main areas of water resource management, settlements and human security, agriculture and food and public health.

Responses to the water crisis may reduce water losses from waterworks and irrigation systems, develop backup water sources and promote the re-use of treated water.

They may also strengthen community-level water management mechanisms to set fair rules for water use.

In addition, responses may adjust cropping patterns, reduce water use in the dry season and promote low-water crops alongside water-management technology.

For public health, responses may monitor water quality and guard against saltwater intrusion and wastewater problems to reduce health risks.

Drought and flooding in the same year

Associate Professor Seree Supratid, director of the Climate Change and Disaster Centre at Rangsit University and an expert for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said the world is clearly transitioning into El Nino from the middle of this year, with a likelihood of more than 80 per cent.

The phenomenon is expected to peak late in the year, Dr Seree said.

“Although the world is transitioning into El Nino in 2026, which is generally associated with lower rainfall and hot weather, this does not mean flooding will not occur because climate variability remains high,” he added.

“Thailand will have temperatures above normal throughout the year, while average annual rainfall is likely to be below normal, which could affect available water reserves in 2027.”

Dr Seree warned that analysis of sea temperature distribution patterns over the past 10 years using AI found that the weather in 2026 resembles 2023, but is more variable, meaning drought and flooding could still occur in the same year.

“For the period from early to mid-2026 (May to August), many areas across the country may face water shortages, especially areas outside irrigation zones, alongside very hot weather,” he said.

“In the late-year period, between September and November, Thailand will be increasingly influenced by tropical cyclones and monsoon troughs, causing heavy rain in some areas.”

In the north, low-lying areas are at risk of flooding, while the central region may be affected by overflowing riverbanks.

The south faces risks of run-off and flash floods late in 2026, requiring close monitoring and preparedness systems.

The area requiring special monitoring is the Mae Sai district in Chiang Rai province, because upstream areas in Shan State, Myanmar, are likely to experience heavy rain.

The severity index is at 0.7 to 0.8, reflecting the risk of run-off and floodwater awaiting drainage. THE NATION/ASIA NEWS NETWORK