Thai political crisis deepens as rivals aim to block leader bids

BANGKOK – Thailand’s political crisis deepened on Sept 3 as rival parties, which lack clear mandates to lead, jostled to undermine each other’s bids for the premiership.

Back-to-back developments in Bangkok revealed a complex path ahead for control, after the court

ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra

on Aug 29 for ethics violation and triggered a race to set alliances.

The reformist People’s Party announced an anticipated decision to back conservative politician Anutin Charnvirakul’s bid to form a government – with the strict condition he will call elections within four months.

As the country’s most popular party and kingmaker, it is poised to perform well in the Lower House, which chooses the prime minister.

But minutes later, rival Pheu Thai party, which still controls the government, announced it was seeking

to dissolve Parliament

, a step that would require royal endorsement and faces legal uncertainty.

If endorsed, it could effectively block Mr Anutin’s ascent.

The drama throws into doubt a Parliament vote that was expected as soon as Sept 4, and sets the stage for multiple avenues for the political process to reach a new deadlock.

“We can anticipate even more chaos in the coming weeks. It’s quite chaotic,” said Dr Napon Jatusripitak, acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“Even though the move by the People’s Party is branded as an attempt to resolve a deadlock, in a sense, it’s creating the chaos we’re seeing,” he said.

The political morass is likely to add a further drag on Thailand’s economy, which is struggling to gain traction and lagging its neighbours, particularly in the face of US President Donald Trump’s trade war.

The government has already forecast growth to average 2 per cent in 2025, less than half the pace of expansion of regional peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

The next steps remain uncertain, particularly over whether the Acting Prime Minister, Pheu Thai’s Mr Phumtham Wechayachai, can legally dissolve Parliament.

Experts are divided on whether a caretaker leader has such authority. Any decree would require King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s endorsement and would be published in the Royal Gazette.

Mr Phumtham told reporters in Bangkok that he submitted the request late on Sept 2.

“It’s up to the royal prerogative,” he said.

New chapter of instability

The unfolding drama will likely add another chapter to Thailand’s long record of political instability, which has seen several prime ministers ousted by royalist judges and generals.

Ms Paetongtarn, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, became the fifth premier linked to him and his parties to be dismissed by the Constitutional Court.

Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party now has only one potential candidate left after losing two prime ministers in about a year.

The People’s Party said its decision would take effect after Mr Anutin signs a written agreement and publicly affirms he will follow through on the pledges, party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said.

The party has also ruled out joining the new Cabinet, vowing to raise a motion of no confidence if the minority government does not follow through on the agreed demands.

Although Move Forward, People’s Party’s earlier incarnation, won the most seats in the 2023 election, it was pushed to the opposition after the country’s conservative establishment thwarted its attempt to take power.

Move Forward was dissolved in 2024 by the Constitutional Court over its pledge to loosen the controversial royal insult law, and its leader and sole prime ministerial candidate, Mr Pita Limjaroenrat, banned from politics for 10 years.

People’s Party, which has no eligible prime minister candidate of its own, has maintained a wide margin over its rivals in recent opinion polls, which ranked its leader Natthaphong as the politician most preferred to be premier. BLOOMBERG