Thai-Cambodia clash may boost PM Anutin’s standing but to what extent?

SURIN, Thailand/BANTEAY MEANCHEY, Cambodia – The evacuation centre set up at Surindra Rajabhat University in Thailand provides only partial respite for the thousands seeking shelter here as the renewed border conflict with Cambodia extended into its fifth day, with the occasional faint rumbling of artillery fire in the distance serving as a potent reminder of what is at stake. 

Adding to the upheaval was the news that Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul had dissolved Parliament,

paving the way for snap polls

by early February, about a month earlier than anticipated and inserting a fresh layer of political uncertainty following the

resumption of hostilities

between the two South-east Asian neighbours that erupted on Dec 8. 

“It doesn’t feel like the right time to dissolve Parliament because the Prime Minister should handle the situation first,” said 45-year-old noodle vendor Aranya Phaprakon, on the Thai side of the disputed border area.

She added that she had barely overcome the trauma and upheaval of the previous outbreak of fighting in July, before she was once again forced to flee with her family from their village in Phanom Dong Rak, some 50km away.

Addressing reporters after a phone call with US President Donald Trump late on Dec 12, Mr Anutin said Mr Trump had conveyed concerns about the situation and wanted Thailand and Cambodia to reinstate their ceasefire and peace deal.

Mr Anutin said he told Mr Trump that Thailand had always adhered to the conditions of the ceasefire and that it was Cambodia’s fault for violating it. 

He said Mr Trump did not indicate that trade talks and conflict resolution should be linked, and that he could call the US President at any time.

“I told him that I don’t think it has reached that point yet and that Thailand can handle the situation.”

Mr Trump has also said that he would speak to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, though it was unclear when that conversation would take place.

Mr Anutin dissolved Parliament late on Dec 11, in a move to pre-empt a no-confidence vote against him led by the main opposition People’s Party, which holds the largest number of seats in the Thai Parliament and is a main contender to unseat the Premier’s conservative Bhumjaithai Party.

Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn provided his royal endorsement on Dec 12, paving the way for a vote which by law must be held within 45 to 60 days. 

A pro-military royalist, Mr Anutin has been in office for only three months, in what has effectively been an interim arrangement following the ouster from office of his predecessor Paetongtarn Shinawatra over her handling of the previous round of border tensions with Cambodia. 

Mr Anutin, who had earlier withdrawn Bhumjaithai’s support from Ms Paetongtarn’s ruling coalition as her grip on power weakened, won a parliamentary vote to become prime minister in September on the back of support from the progressive People’s Party. 

That unlikely political compromise came in exchange for a promise to dissolve Parliament within four months and to organise a referendum on drafting a new Constitution.

Mr Anutin had previously committed to dissolving Parliament by late January, but pulled the trigger early after the People’s Party accused him of reneging on the constitutional amendment process.

“They voted for me to be the prime minister,” Mr Anutin said at Government House on Dec 12, referring to the People’s Party. “Now, they said they don’t want me to go on, so I have to dissolve Parliament.”

As well as coinciding with the fierce conflict with Cambodia, the snap election comes as Mr Anutin seeks to recover his footing after

a mismanaged disaster response

to devastating floods in southern Thailand, and perceptions of high-level links to Cambodia’s industrial-scale scam economy. 

Mr Anutin also inherited a sputtering Thai economy that has seen much of its potential frittered away by a cycle of political instability and military coups over the

past two decades

.

While border trade with Cambodia is insignificant at the national level, the conflict has resulted in acute labour shortages due to an exodus of Cambodian migrant workers who were prolific on Thai construction sites.

The negative headlines have also slowed the return of Chinese tourists to the Land of Smiles.

Political analysts say Mr Anutin’s tough-talking, hardline approach, as well as providing army chiefs full authority to assert Thailand’s considerable superiority to cripple Cambodia’s military installations along their shared border, is finding an audience among conservative, nationalistic quarters – and this is helping him reshape the prevailing political narrative. 

“Anutin’s handling of the Cambodian conflict so far has boosted rather than hurt his standing with the specific voters that he wants to court, particularly the more conservative voters,” said political analyst Ken Lohatepanont.

“It has allowed him to draw a sharp contrast with Pheu Thai’s (response) a few months earlier,” he added, referring to Ms Paetongtarn’s political party founded by her father, billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

But it is also unclear how far the attempt to capitalise on heightened nationalism can extend.

The most recent quarterly poll by the National Institute of Development Administration, conducted in September, showed the People’s Party, with 33 per cent, retaining its healthy lead over all other major parties, though it has historically found it hard to find willing coalition partners to work with.

Mr Anutin’s Bhumjaithai polled 13 per cent.

At the evacuation centre in Surin, 48-year-old farmer Jon Piyangkabud said she felt glad that she had an opportunity to determine who should lead the Thai government’s response to the ongoing conflict with Cambodia, and said she planned to switch her vote from the People’s Party to the Bhumjaithai after seeing Mr Anutin’s performance.  

“It’s strange that Anutin hasn’t finished the job; it’s only halfway done, but overall, the situation feels better than under the previous prime minister,” she said.  

The risk is that in the search for electoral popularity, Mr Anutin overreaches in the conflict or unnecessarily prolongs it, a fact not lost on the Cambodian public.

At least 23 people have been killed on both sides, and hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced.

“I think the situation will get more intense since the military in Thailand has more power,” said Cambodian villager Tola Tolin, 25.

Cambodian mother-of-two Houen Sreymao, 33, said: “Maybe it will be good if they change the government because it might end the war.”

Mr Anutin has also previously signalled an unwillingness to bow to external diplomatic pressure, including from the US. The threat of higher trade tariffs by the Trump administration played a key role in Thailand and Cambodia agreeing to an initial ceasefire and subsequent peace deal in October.

“The call with Trump is just an update,” Mr Anutin told reporters on Dec 12, before his scheduled call with Mr Trump. “But about the next steps, the Thai government has supported and authorised the military to take care of it.” 

Ms Aranya, the noodle vendor, said most of her fellow villagers want Thailand to end the conflict with Cambodia on its own terms, without any intervention from the US. “The army has evacuated all the people here anyway, so they should finish the job.”