YANGON – When Myanmar carried out the death penalty for the first time in three decades by executing four activists in July, China and Russia stayed silent while the United States and its allies condemned the junta. The regime may well do it again. 

Seven university students were sentenced to death last month by a secretive military court for their alleged involvement in the shooting of a retired military officer, and their punishment could come any time. They are among more than 130 people put on death row since the junta seized control in a coup last year and deposed former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who faces a new round of court verdicts on Friday.

The military has used increasingly brutal tactics to subdue its enemies – even as it further entrenches Myanmar as a pariah state abroad. A rare United Nations Security Council resolution last week called for an end to violence and the release of all political prisoners. 

But with China, Russia and India abstaining from the UN vote, it is unlikely to have much effect, while the junta sees regimes from Iran to North Korea defying international sanctions and testing the will of world powers.

“With India on your side, with China not your enemy – a bit upset with what’s happened, but clearly not out to get Myanmar, with Russia as a strong backer, the world’s looked like a comfortable enough place,” said Mr Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser with the International Crisis Group.

Western sanctions targeting the coup leaders and related business entities, as well as an investor exodus, have harmed the junta’s finances. But while it presides over an economy in disarray, it retains control of vast economic interests, including lucrative natural gas exports.

Myanmar’s armed groups, meanwhile, remain divided, with different factions fighting across the country. International support has been elusive, with Western aid heading to Ukraine, and diplomatic efforts ineffective. 

Major General Zaw Min Tun, lead spokesman for Myanmar’s ruling State Administration Council, did not respond to requests to comment. 

“The junta places little value on international consensus or external pressure,” said Mr Hunter Marston, an adjunct research fellow at La Trobe University in Melbourne who has followed developments in South-east Asia since 2007. “It’s clearly cratered the economy and sees little reason to change course so long as no country is sending in troops to stop it.”

The looming executions point to a regime unable to see beyond immediate challenges as it struggles to hold territory against supporters of Ms Suu Kyi and ethnic armed groups. While the junta oversees key cities, it’s retained stable control of just 17 per cent of the country’s total land area, according to a group of Myanmar experts.

It’s increasingly turned to air strikes to try and secure ground. In October, the US and European nations accused it of inflicting “extraordinary harm” on civilians after killing more than 60 people in an air attack on a concert organized by ethnic rebels. 

The regime has also failed to stabilise an economy that contracted 18 per cent last year and is now seeing soaring inflation, a weakening currency and shrinking foreign-currency reserves. Myanmar approved foreign investment worth just US$1.46 billion (S$2 billion) in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, a 56.4 per cent year-on-year decline.

That is where China and Russia have become significantly important to the junta. 

China remains Myanmar’s largest trading partner, and continues to play a key part in its economic development. When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar earlier this year he said the relationship remained “rock solid and unbreakable,” and praised cooperation on projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

What is not clear is how much of this work is progressing. Government data on foreign investment show less than US$100 million coming from China so far this fiscal year, with Singapore topping the list of foreign investors.

Military chief Min Aung Hlaing has increasingly turned to Russia for support, visiting the country at least twice this year and hailing Vladimir Putin as the “leader of the world.” The two sides have since inked several economic pacts in an effort to bolster ties.

Russia’s Ambassador to Myanmar, Nikolay Listopadov, told Bloomberg News sanctions and international pressure will only lead to a worsening of the crisis. He said Russia “never gets involved in domestic affairs” but supports the release of political prisoners and dialog among all stakeholders.

With Russia and China continuing to show support, Myanmar’s military will see little reason to back down from a level of brutality that has surpassed that of previous regimes.

“China and Russia only care about their business rather than human rights and democracy,” said Mr Soe Thura Tun, the shadow National Unity Government’s Minister of Electricity and Energy. “They discussed with the junta to ensure they become early birds for profit-making projects in the long term.”

Ms Suu Kyi, 77, is now awaiting the final verdicts in an 18-month trial that has seen her sentenced to 26 years in jail so far. A special court is expected to rule on Friday on five charges related to the rental and purchase of a helicopter during her civilian government’s term.

Since the coup that toppled Ms Suu Kyi’s government, and led to the deaths of more than 2,600 people, the US has led efforts to punish the regime. But it is wary of measures that could harm the nation’s 55 million population, and the Western response has largely been confined to humanitarian assistance, targeted financial sanctions and working with Myanmar’s neighbors in Southeast Asia to pressure the junta. 

America’s biggest security partners in the region, including Australia, have refused to impose sanctions, choosing instead to keep lines of communication open. Japan retains strong business links, while India has known ties to the junta. Last month, Myanmar released four foreign prisoners, including Suu Kyi’s former adviser – Australian economist Sean Turnell, and a Japanese filmmaker, as part of an amnesty.

“That’s probably something that we see as being the end result of diplomatic efforts by those governments,” said Dr Moe Thuzar, a fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “But the death sentences that have been passed are on Burmese nationals so we need to be aware of that as well.” BLOOMBERG