Sabah state election: Here’s your cheat sheet to who’s who and what’s at stake

KOTA KINABALU – Sabah voters head to the ballot boxes on Nov 29 in a state election that analysts say could even reshape federal politics, with the

Anwar Ibrahim administration

set to pay close attention to the results.

Anti-Peninsular Malaysia sentiment has become a

central narrative for local parties

, as they try to convince Sabahans that home-grown parties are best positioned to deliver greater autonomy to the resource-rich state of 3.8 million people.

Meanwhile, independent contenders under the

Black Wave movement

propose a people-first alternative that promises genuine representation for Sabahans, even as they go up against a field dominated by major parties and political dynasties.

Curious as to what is at play in the East Malaysian state? Read more as The Straits Times explains.

What are Sabahans voting for?

In short: Whether their resource-rich state can finally break free from chronic poverty and infrastructure failures that have persisted despite decades of oil and gas wealth.

Longstanding structural challenges dominated the campaign, with voters frustrated by a widening development gap. At stake is whether Sabah can secure the basic infrastructure and autonomy that have eluded residents for decades.

“Sabah is still the poorest state in Malaysia despite being rich in oil and gas,” said political analyst Mujibu Abd Muis of Universiti Teknologi MARA. He noted that parties have struggled to convince voters that they can deliver meaningful improvements.

Unreliable water supply,

frequent electricity outages

and weak connectivity repeatedly dominated campaign events.

For voter Simon Adul, 47, a Sino-Kadazan resident of Kolombong, these shortcomings are central to his decision. He had supported the incumbent state government led by Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), but said little had improved.

“I think Sabah people deserve more. I would like to give Warisan another chance to lead,” he told ST at the party’s campaign stop on Nov 26. Parti Warisan had governed the state between May 2018 and September 2020.

The unresolved

death of 13-year-old Zara Qairina

in July in a Papar religious school, currently under inquest, has quietly shaped debates about institutional accountability and public trust among Sabahans.

Security, border management and rural access also remain major concerns for voters.

These issues shape how parties frame Sabah’s rights under

the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63)

, with candidates promising stronger autonomy and a greater share of federal revenue.

Youth voters hold particular sway, with nearly one million of Sabah’s 1.78 million registered voters under 40 years old.

“With 54 per cent of the registered voters being the youth, it means, one in every two voters is Sabah youth. We are the largest voice in this election and our vote has the power to determine the direction of our state,” said Ms Atalia Mae Albert Jaua of youth movement Gerakan Anak Sabah.

Who are the main contestants vying for power?

This election will see 73 seats contested, with 596 candidates in the running, the most crowded race in the state’s history. In the last state assembly, six more candidates were appointed to it as nominated representatives. Two seats were left vacant before dissolution of the state assembly.

Incumbent GRS is allied with both Prime Minister Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition and its ally, Barisan Nasional (BN), at the federal level, but its alliances are far less united at the state level.

Several home-grown parties such as Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) had quit GRS ahead of the election, while United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO) left PH.

Hajiji Noor (GRS)

Mr Hajiji, 69, is the incumbent chief minister, serving since September 2020. The veteran politician has held the Sulaman state seat for seven terms since 1990 and previously served in various ministerial positions.

GRS formed a unity government with PH following the 2022 general election, giving Datuk Seri Anwar the premiership and positioned Sabah as a state government aligned with Putrajaya. Mr Hajiji was formerly with opposition Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia – a Perikatan Nasional (PN) lynchpin – before leaving in December 2022.

Shafie Apdal (Parti Warisan)

One of Sabah’s most prominent political leaders, Datuk Seri Shafie, 68, previously served as chief minister before his administration collapsed in 2020 due to defections. Warisan would later leave PH in 2021.

Warisan’s support is strongest on the east coast, particularly Semporna, Senallang, Lahad Datu, Kunak and Bugaya, where Bajau and Suluk communities form Mr Shafie’s core base and where his family has deep political roots.

Bung Moktar Radin (BN)

Datuk Seri Bung Moktar, 66, is one of Sabah’s most recognisable leaders of UMNO, the lynchpin of BN. He has represented Kinabatangan in Parliament since 1999, and is defending the Lamag state seat. Known for his strong grassroots networks in Kinabatangan and the surrounding rural Muslim-majority areas, he is positioning himself as a chief minister candidate, along with fellow Sabah UMNO leader Salleh Said Keruak.

His campaign faces a six-cornered contest and the added pressure of an

ongoing court case

involving corruption allegations, making his race one of the most closely watched this election. BN was also briefly at loggerheads with allies PH and GRS over seat negotiations.

Ewon Benedick (UPKO)

Datuk Ewon, 42, leads the UPKO, a long-established local party rooted in the Kadazan-Dusun-Murut (KDM) communities that is now seen as part of Sabah’s younger reform-oriented generation. UPKO was formerly part of PH, before leaving ahead of the state election.

It has a strong Sabah-first agenda focused on native rights and rural development. UPKO’s support is concentrated in west-coast KDM-majority areas, including Tamparuli, Moyog, parts of Tuaran, Kadamaian and surrounding highland communities.

Ronald Kiandee (PN)

Datuk Seri Ronald, 64, leads the Sabah chapters of opposition coalition PN and its component party, Bersatu. A long-time parliamentarian known for his technocratic style, Mr Ronald has positioned PN as the primary federal-aligned challenger to GRS.

PN’s strength is concentrated in interior and semi-urban constituencies, where Bersatu still retains grassroots networks built during its earlier partnership within the GRS government. However, one of its other component parties, the Islamist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), has limited traction in Sabah’s multi-ethnic and multi-faith landscape due to its conservative image.

Musa Aman (Sabah governor)

A governor is constitutionally required to remain above politics, but former chief minister Musa, 74, is still a significant figure in this election due to several of his close relatives contesting. These include his sons Yamani Hafez (PH) and Hazem Mubarak (GRS), younger brother Anifah (Parti Cinta Sabah), son-in-law Mohd Arifin Mohd Arif, and cousin Annuar Ayob.

Their combined presence has renewed questions about whether Tun Musa’s longstanding political networks, built during his long tenure in the state government between 2003 and 2018, still carry influence among older UMNO loyalists and rural Muslim voters.

According to Kuala Lumpur-based think-tank Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia, the governor holds significant discretion in a hung assembly as he must appoint the chief minister “likely to command the confidence of the majority”. The governor’s judgment becomes pivotal in a fragmented result, as the chief minister does not have to come from the party with the most seats, but rather from whoever can demonstrate majority support through coalition agreements or statutory declarations.

Where would the hottest fights be?

It is a crowded fight indeed. The Tulid seat faces an unprecedented 14-way battle, followed by four seats with 13 candidates each, two seats with 12-way contests, six seats facing 11-cornered fights, and nine constituencies with 10 contenders vying for a single seat.

The fiercest contests involve seats where chief ministerial hopefuls are staking their claims, including Merotai, where PH’s Datuk Ruji Ubi is fighting a four-way race; Tanjung Kapor, where Black Wave leader Verdon Bahanda faces 10 rivals; Usukan, where BN’s Mr Salleh confronts five challengers; and Senallang, where Warisan president Shafie battles three opponents.

Other hotly contested seats include Kadamaian, where UPKO president Ewon faces seven contenders, and Tambunan, where STAR president Jeffrey Kitingan takes on six rivals.

How likely would there be a clear winner?

A victory for incumbent GRS seems the most likely, though Warisan’s chances also look good with its autonomy demands.

“GRS has better machinery and is pushing the narrative of stability and continuity with good relations with the federal government,” said political analyst Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia.

A GRS win would likely maintain steady federal-state cooperation on MA63 and financial arrangements, while a Warisan-led opposition victory would create tougher negotiations, she said.

Meanwhile, Mr Mujibu warned that a fragmented result may signal Malaysia’s shift towards multi-bloc politics.

“A result that requires post-election negotiations would show that Malaysia has structurally entered a multi-bloc equilibrium, where no single coalition can dominate,” he said.

Both analysts also noted the calm on the ground, with no sign of a major swing.

Youth turnout remains the biggest uncertainty, though youth groups themselves remain loosely organised.

“Youth can flip an election, but the question is whether they will come out to vote,” Dr Syaza said.