Philippines, India shore up ties amid China tensions, US tariff risks

MANILA – President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s state visit to India this week marks a deepening of Philippine efforts to diversify its strategic partnerships beyond traditional allies, as Manila grapples with escalating tensions in the South China Sea and economic headwinds from Washington’s protectionist turn.

“Today, our relationship enters a new epoch,” Mr Marcos said in a joint media conference in New Delhi on Aug 5 as he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi formally elevated bilateral ties to a strategic partnership. “India becomes only the fifth strategic partner of the Philippines.”

The announcement came as Indian and Philippine Navy ships held on Aug 3 and 4 their

first-ever joint maritime drills,

notably within the Philippines’ 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, an area that Beijing also claims.

The timing and location of the exercises underscore the defence dimension of the new partnership at a time when China’s assertiveness in the disputed waters is intensifying.

Delivering rare public remarks in English, Mr Modi framed the moment in sweeping terms, saying: “India and the Philippines are friends by choice and partners by destiny. From the Indian Ocean to the Pacific, we are united by shared values. Ours is not just a friendship of the past; it is a promise to the future.”

Aligned Indo-Pacific strategies

Defence analysts say the expanding security ties reflect a broader recalibration of Manila’s foreign policy under Mr Marcos, who has sought to deepen ties with middle powers that share concerns over regional security but avoid great power rivalry.

“The naval drills and state visit happening at the same time was no coincidence. It’s meant to project the mutuality of the interest of the two countries in the South China Sea,” said Dr Aries Arugay, a visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. “India is also asserting itself as a major power not just in Asia, but globally.”

The new partnership formalises coordination that has been quietly building. In 2022, the Philippines became the first foreign buyer of India’s BrahMos supersonic cruise missile in a US$375 million (S$483 million) deal – India’s first major arms export. The first batch was delivered in 2024.

India has also publicly supported the Philippines’ legal position in the South China Sea. In 2023, in a rare move by an Asian government, it called on China to comply with the 2016 arbitral ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

“India has become more sensitive to the security interests of its partners in South-east Asia, particularly the Philippines,” said geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill of De La Salle University in Manila. “So this shows you also Manila’s willingness to incorporate India deeper into its security calculations.”

From New Delhi’s perspective, Manila is no longer just a marginal partner in Asean, said Mr C. Uday Bhaskar, a retired military officer and director of the Society for Policy Studies in New Delhi.

“The Philippines is important for India... because the Philippines has a distinctive maritime relevance in the region and it has taken on a definitive stand vis-a-vis China,” he said. Manila’s purchase of the BrahMos system “gave credibility” to India’s ambitions as an arms supplier.

Going beyond arms sales

The partnership is expected to expand beyond procurement. Philippine officials have

expressed interest in India’s Akash surface-to-air missile system,

and talks are under way for India to import Philippine nickel, a critical mineral used in steel and defence production.

“India is also pursuing its own self-reliance efforts, and it seeks to present itself not just as a partner that sells arms, but also as a partner that builds capacities,” said Mr Gill.

Indian Ministry of External Affairs Secretary (East) P. Kumaran said both countries are exploring cooperation on submarine infrastructure, ship design and naval modernisation.

This aligns with both countries’ push for self-reliant defence postures. India, traditionally non-aligned, has always been wary of China, particularly since a deadly 2020 border clash in Ladakh, which froze bilateral relations.

Ties are on the mend

but distrust remains high. 

“If you notice, India and the Philippines represent different points in the Indo-Pacific region. From the perspective of geopolitics, it’s a big deal for the two nations to have a strategic security relationship,” said Dr Arugay.

While defence was the centrepiece of Mr Marcos’ visit, economic diversification was also high on the agenda. Both countries have been impacted by US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies: The Philippines

faces a 19 per cent tariff,

while Mr Trump has

threatened higher duties on Indian goods

over its oil trade with Russia.

Delhi and Manila are working towards a bilateral preferential trade agreement. Philippine trade with India exceeded US$3.3 billion (S$4.25 billion) in 2024 but remains modest.

Mr Kumaran cited potential cooperation in seaweed farming, rice research, biofuels and renewable energy. He also said India has offered oil and gas consultancy support, noting the Philippines’ high oil import bill.

Unlocking soft power cooperation

Beyond defence and trade, the two leaders signed agreements covering science and technology, mutual legal assistance, digital tech, outer space, and cultural and tourism exchanges. Both sides agreed to reciprocal visa-free entry for tourists, with direct flights between Manila and New Delhi set to resume later this year.

“These soft-power agreements are ways to lock in the cooperation, so it will not just be at the level of pledges,” Dr Arugay said. “These people-to-people, socio-cultural exchanges always have the value of complementing the defence and economic deals.”

The two countries also committed to regular maritime security dialogues, alternating between New Delhi and Manila – similar to both countries’ arrangements with Australia and Japan.

Mr Marcos’ visit caps a broader strategy of hedging. With uncertainty over future US tariffs and China’s pressure in the South China Sea, the Philippines is positioning itself for a world where great power competition is fluid and unreliable.

“In the end, the Marcos administration has learnt from the past that it cannot overly rely on the US for all its security and defence needs,” said Dr Arugay. “And it’s hard to get a hook on India. So this is a big achievement.”