Philippines’ 2026 chairmanship of Asean to test Marcos’ balancing act on regional issues
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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr delivering a speech at the launch of the country's chairmanship of Asean for 2026, at a ceremony in Manila on Nov 14.
ST PHOTO: MARA CEPEDA
MANILA - President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Nov 14 launched the Philippines’ year-long chairmanship of Asean in 2026, setting the tone for how Manila intends to steer the regional grouping amid rising geopolitical tensions and questions over its relevance.
The Philippines is taking the helm at a time when Asean faces deepening divisions over the South China Sea,
Mr Marcos said Manila will prioritise economic cooperation and regional stability during its chairmanship, while also seeking progress on long-running maritime issues.
“We shall continue to champion peace and stability through dialogue, adherence to international law and enhanced cooperation on traditional and non-traditional security issues,” he said in a speech in Manila. “We believe that through cooperation and understanding, Asean can further strengthen its role as a force for peace and progress in the global community.”
He then announced the appointment of Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro as the Philippines’ special envoy of the chair on Myanmar, expressing confidence that the long-time Filipino diplomat will bring a “constructive, principled and inclusive approach to supporting the people of Myanmar”.
Mr Marcos also said that the Philippines will champion the ethical and responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI) to address security challenges in the region, including harnessing the technology for early warning systems, maritime domain awareness, humanitarian assistance and disaster response.
Though he did not explicitly mention it in his speech, he told reporters in October he hopes that negotiations on the code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea would be concluded in 2026, while the Philippines is the Asean chair.
The COC – which Asean members have been negotiating with China for about two decades – aims to set up a framework for peaceful dispute resolution in the South China Sea. Beijing’s sweeping claims over the disputed waterway overlap with the exclusive economic zones of Asean member states Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan.
But analysts say Mr Marcos will have to balance the Philippines’ strategic interests with Asean’s consensus-driven culture and the need to keep China engaged.
“When you are chair of Asean, you are not supposed to bring your own issues (to the table). As chair, you are a consensus builder,” Dr Aries Arugay, visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told The Straits Times.
He cautioned the Philippines, as Asean chair, against pushing too hard on its interests in the South China Sea dispute.
“It is a bit self-serving, right? And it sets a dangerous precedent that the Asean chairmanship could be used to advance one country’s agenda than to push a collective agenda,” he said.
“On (the) one hand, passing the COC is a collective agenda, but the Philippines must also play by the informal norms that undergird Asean.”
Tensions have been brewing between Manila and Beijing over parts of the disputed sea, with maritime encounters happening near flashpoints such as Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys in recent months.
Dr Arugay added that if the long-delayed code is finally passed, but turns out to be a watered-down version of what Manila has been pushing for in the negotiations, “it is better for the Philippines that a disappointing, toothless document does not come out under our chairmanship”.
But geopolitical analyst Robin Garcia of the Manila-based public affairs firm WR Numero said Mr Marcos appears determined to put the code at the centre of his Asean legacy.
Dr Garcia added that recent signals suggest Mr Marcos is preparing to bring China back into the conversation ahead of 2026. The Philippine leader shook the hand of Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea in October, a gesture analysts see as part of Manila’s effort to keep communication channels open.
Dr Garcia said Mr Marcos’ push for Manila’s claims over the South China Sea in his State of the Nation address in July “was a bit more toned down”, indicating that the President still wants China at the negotiating table for the COC.
“So, that is really the diplomatic challenge of President Marcos as he chairs Asean next year. It remains to be seen if Marcos will be successful in balancing the member states’ interests with the interests of the Philippines,” Dr Garcia said.
Asean chairman and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) handing over a gavel to Mr Marcos as a symbol of the handover of the Asean chairmanship from Malaysia to the Philippines, during the closing ceremony of the 47th Asean Summit and Related Summits in Kuala Lumpur on Oct 28.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Both Dr Garcia and Dr Arugay said that the Philippines can use its Asean chairmanship to play a bigger peacemaking role on regional flashpoints beyond the South China Sea.
Dr Arugay said Manila can help rebuild Asean’s relevance by taking the lead on humanitarianism and by stepping in as a mediator in longstanding disputes such as the Myanmar crisis and the Thai-Cambodia border tensions.
He said the Philippines has enough distance from those conflicts to act as an honest broker.
“Bring back the mediating role within the region. If an Asean nation mediates, it will inspire confidence in both the Thais and Cambodians, for example,” he said.
Dr Arugay said the Philippines can also support Timor-Leste’s integration into Asean, where Manila can play the role “not as a big brother, but as an older brother” to the new member.
Dr Garcia agreed with this view, saying the Philippines has “some affinity” with Timor-Leste as both are predominantly Catholic countries in South-east Asia, and could leverage this during important discussions in 2026.
“Mr Marcos, as chair, would be expected to include Timor-Leste in the solution of important discussions regarding Asean. We will have to see if that would be a priority of Marcos,” he said.
Taking on these issues would allow the Philippines to showcase constructive leadership at a time when Asean faces questions about its unity and crisis management capacity, both analysts said.
By steering the group through sensitive political conflicts while avoiding the perception of advancing its own maritime agenda, Manila could demonstrate the kind of consensus-building expected of the Asean chair.
Mr Marcos said: “Let us build together an Asean that is unified in its diversity, a steadfast body that stands close forever to its principles and bold in its embrace of innovation – where technology serves humanity, (and) where AI helps secure peace, prosperity and people empowerment.”
