Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte impeached again, but Senate trial now in doubt

MANILA – Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte was impeached anew by the House of Representatives on May 11, making her the first vice-president in the country’s history to be impeached twice.

But her allies have moved swiftly to tighten their grip on the Senate ahead of a looming trial that could define her 2028 presidential ambitions.

The move comes a year after an earlier impeachment bid against Ms Duterte was voided by the Supreme Court on constitutional grounds linked to a procedural technicality. On May 11, lawmakers voted 257 to 25 to impeach Ms Duterte, with nine abstaining.

But impeachment does not automatically remove her from office. The case will now move to the Senate, which will convene as an impeachment court and decide whether to convict or acquit her.

Conviction requires the votes of two-thirds of senators, or 16 votes, while only nine votes are needed for an acquittal that would allow Ms Duterte to remain in office and preserve her eligibility to run for president in 2028. She declared her presidential bid in February.

In a dramatic political upheaval hours before the impeachment vote, senators aligned with the Duterte camp ousted Senate president Vicente Sotto III and replaced him with Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, a former foreign secretary under ex-president Rodrigo Duterte, the Vice-President’s father.

The Senate shake-up fuelled speculation that the Duterte camp was moving aggressively to influence the outcome of the impeachment trial before it could seriously threaten Ms Duterte’s presidential ambitions.

In his first speech as Senate president, Mr Cayetano signalled that the impeachment trial will happen, but said the proceedings must not hinge on political affiliations.

“We have to be guided by the truth, guided by evidence. The process is as important as the result,” he said. “We can’t just say we can’t rely on her anymore as vice-president, so let’s impeach her. That is not how it works. The Senate is on trial here, too.”

At the centre of the impeachment are allegations that Ms Duterte misused over 612.5 million pesos (S$12.7 million) worth of confidential funds in the Office of the Vice-President and the Department of Education, which she headed before resigning in 2024 after her alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr unravelled.

The complaint also accused her of amassing unexplained wealth and threatening to kill Mr Marcos, First Lady Louise Araneta-Marcos and former House speaker Martin Romualdez, the President’s cousin.

Ms Duterte did not attend the House impeachment hearings but instead issued public statements denying wrongdoing and calling the proceedings politically motivated.

In a statement on May 11, Ms Duterte’s legal team said they are “fully prepared” to defend the Vice-President before the impeachment court.

The Duterte camp is facing mounting pressure on multiple fronts, including the former president’s ongoing International Criminal Court (ICC) case over his bloody drug war and legal troubles involving alleged corruption by key allies.

But the Senate coup has dramatically altered the political calculus surrounding the impeachment trial itself.

The Senate upheaval also appeared to embolden Duterte allies.

Senator Ronald dela Rosa, who had largely stayed out of public view for months amid speculation that the ICC would soon issue an arrest warrant against him over his role in Mr Duterte’s drug war as former police chief, resurfaced at the Senate session hall and joined the move to oust Mr Sotto.

As the political drama unfolded, agents from the National Bureau of Investigation arrived at the Senate complex to serve what sources said was an ICC arrest warrant against Mr Dela Rosa. At around 6pm on May 11, the new Senate leadership agreed to put Mr Dela Rosa under the Senate’s protection to prevent the warrant from being served, with the main building put on lockdown.

“(Sara Duterte’s) acquittal seems to be a certainty now,” lawyer and political analyst Michael Yusingco of the Ateneo School of Government in Manila told The Straits Times. “The obvious expectation is the impeachment trial will be delayed. The new leadership will push this back as late as they can.”

Political science professor Jean Encinas-Franco of the University of the Philippines-Diliman was more blunt, saying the Senate shake-up was aimed at preventing the impeachment trial from gaining real traction.

“The consequence is that they are weakening the Senate as an important institution of accountability. History will not be kind to them,” Dr Franco told ST.

Still, a possible acquittal would not necessarily mean the impeachment battle carries no risks for Ms Duterte.

Mr Yusingco argued that the greater political danger for Ms Duterte lies in failing to win over undecided voters in 2028, as potentially damaging testimony unfolds during a televised Senate trial.

Another question is whether Ms Duterte could resign before a Senate verdict, potentially triggering a constitutional debate over whether the impeachment court would still retain jurisdiction and whether she could still be barred from holding future office.

Philippine law has yet to test such a scenario. The matter may be questioned before the Supreme Court.

But Mr Yusingco said that the impeachment trial should still continue even if Ms Duterte decides to resign as vice-president before a verdict is reached.

“Being impeached means there is already evidence that she is unfit for office,” he said.

Despite mounting legal and political troubles surrounding the Duterte camp, Ms Duterte remains one of the Philippines’ strongest contenders for the 2028 presidency.

Surveys by local pollsters showed her leading or statistically tied with possible rivals such as Senator Raffy Tulfo and former vice-president and now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in hypothetical presidential match-ups.

Still, Philippine presidential races notoriously remain fluid, with voter preferences often shifting dramatically in the final weeks before election day as alliances realign and candidates gain or lose momentum.

The trial also carries major political stakes for Mr Marcos, who is limited to a single term as president by the Constitution. His alliance with the Duterte family collapsed less than three years after he and Ms Duterte swept to power together in the 2022 election.

Dr Franco said the outcome could shape perceptions of whether Mr Marcos still retains enough political influence to determine the country’s post-2028 political order.

“Whether Sara is convicted or not will actually tell us whether the President is already a lame duck,” she said.