PAS call to back Barisan Nasional in Johor state polls could backfire, say analysts

KUALA LUMPUR – A move by Malaysia’s opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) to direct supporters to vote for Barisan Nasional (BN) in the Johor state election could backfire instead, said analysts.

This could end up galvanising non-Malay support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, one analyst told The Straits Times, while another said the move could undermine UMNO, the main party in the BN coalition.

The directive, issued by PN’s Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), reflects the opposition coalition’s long-term push for greater Malay political unity.

While BN and PH are contesting all 56 seats in the Johor state election, PN is vying for only 33 constituencies, including 11 contested by PAS. This was despite PN saying earlier that it would contest all seats.

In a June 28 media report, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man was quoted as saying that he had instructed party members and supporters to vote for BN candidates in the seats that PN is not contesting.

“That is what we have emphasised (with PAS members). Do not vote for Pakatan Harapan,” Tuan Ibrahim told Malaysia news outlet Sinar Harian.

An analyst told ST that the directive reinforces the perception that a vote for BN is effectively a vote for the Islamist party, potentially driving non-Malay voters towards PH.

Tunku Mohar Mokhtar from the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) said the directive sends a “clear message” to non-Malay voters.

“There is now a notion that a vote for BN is a vote for PAS,” Mohar said.

Just over half of Johor’s 2.7 million eligible voters are Malay, while the remainder are predominantly Chinese and from other ethnic groups.

In the 2022 state election, BN won 40 seats, while PH secured 12 and PN three, with PAS accounting for one of PN’s victories.

Ahead of the June 27 Nomination Day for the 2026 Johor state polls, rumours of an electoral pact between PN and BN to avoid multi-cornered fights had circulated but did not materialise on the day itself.

UMNO, PAS cooperation?

Nevertheless, the latest PAS directive signalled that the party remains open to closer cooperation with UMNO, despite the absence of a formal electoral pact.

The directive is also likely to fuel speculation over future collaboration between the country’s two largest Malay-based political blocs.

On June 28, UMNO youth chief Akmal Saleh welcomed the move by PAS and thanked the party in a brief Facebook post.

“Thank you PAS. God willing, we begin this in Johor and later on in other states,” Akmal wrote.

The Johor state election on July 11 will be followed by the Negeri Sembilan one on Aug 1. State polls in Melaka and Sarawak are due by the first half of 2027, while Malaysia’s general election has to be called by early 2028.

Syaza Syukri, an assistant professor of political science at IIUM, said Johor has never been a PAS stronghold, allowing the party to make concessions to UMNO as part of a longer-term national strategy.

“PAS knows it is not electorally strong enough to form a government on its own, so it still needs to work with others,” Syaza said.

“It’s always looking for partners. UMNO is the best partner for PAS.”

She added that while both parties compete for the same pool of Malay voters, Johor offers PAS an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to the idea of Malay unity.

Despite the positive response from UMNO, political analyst Azmi Hassan from the Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research questioned what actually motivated the PAS directive.

Azmi told ST that PAS could be undermining UMNO by strengthening the perception that the two parties are politically inseparable. This may hurt BN in mixed-race constituencies while helping PAS safeguard the 11 constituencies that it is contesting.

“PAS is creating a perception that they and UMNO are hand in hand, but they are saying this to safeguard their 11 contested seats,” he said.

“It is an odd strategy, but that is what Tuan Ibrahim’s implicit message is saying.”