Malaysia’s rice bowl is thirsting for water as heat bakes in, and El Nino isn’t even here yet

KUALA LUMPUR – Water levels are below 70 per cent at nearly a quarter of Malaysia’s dams in the country’s north and south, offering a warning sign for the rest of the country to step up preparations ahead of a potentially record-breaking El Nino, which could bring intense heatwaves.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns, often bringing hotter, drier conditions to South-east Asia and raising the risk of drought, low water levels and widespread fires.

Water levels below 70 per cent are designated as “cautionary”, and experts said such stress on water resources brought by the current hot and dry weather, coupled with an El Nino event, could bring a real risk of water shortage for the country.

Mr Charles Santiago, a water governance advocate and a former MP for the Democratic Action Party, said the government must begin communicating the risks now, with dam levels already falling months ahead of the expected onset of El Nino in June.

“While the problem is still localised to the northern states, all other places need to start preparing, as this will affect everybody,” he told The Straits Times.

He added that the government needs to be clear with people that they are heading into a problem, and come up with a plan to conserve water.

“It needs to happen now; otherwise, it will be too late,” he stressed.

The warning comes as three northern states in Peninsular Malaysia – Perlis, Kedah and Perak – recorded temperatures above 35 deg C for several days, with three districts in Kedah seeing sustained highs of between 37 deg C and 40 deg C for more than three days.

Falling reserve levels

Ten of Malaysia’s 43 dams are operating with water levels below 70 per cent, according to the National Water Services Commission, which constantly monitors the water levels. A drop below 30 per cent is “critical”, requiring “emergency-level concern”.

In particular, four dams out of six in Kedah have fallen to cautionary levels, with Muda Dam, the state’s second-largest reservoir, at a critical 7.47 per cent of its normal levels. The other three are operating at just over half their water levels.

These dams supply water to more than a million households across Kedah, Perlis and Penang.

Photos posted on Facebook on March 25 by Datuk Ismail Salleh, who chairs the agricultural development board for the Muda river basin (MADA), showed receding water levels and parched ground on the banks of the river basin.

“MADA has made efforts to pray for rain and conduct cloud seeding operations, but to no avail,” Dr Ismail said in the post, adding that it would be submitting another request for cloud seeding.

The Muda river basin is the country’s largest rice bowl, producing up to one million tonnes of padi every year, roughly one-third of Malaysia’s rice production.

Aside from the dams in Kedah, reserve levels of the Timah Tasoh dam in Perlis are down to 38 per cent. Four of Johor’s 11 dams and one of Perak’s three dams have reached cautionary levels.

Johor’s Linggiu Dam, which feeds Singapore, is currently at over 92 per cent. It bounced back to over 80 per cent in 2021 after plunging to a historic low of 20 per cent during a dry spell in 2016.

Before the situation escalates

Dr Chong Khai Lin, director of the Disaster Management Institute at Universiti Utara Malaysia, told ST that while the stress on water resources in Kedah does not immediately translate into shortages in other regions, it is a canary in a coal mine.

“The real risk is not a single dry region, but the possibility of multiple regions experiencing reduced rainfall at the same time,” Dr Chong said.

“This is how a manageable situation can escalate into a broader water security challenge.”

She added that the hallmark of resilience is how well the country manages variability by using forecasting, coordination and disciplined demand control.

Several weather stations in the northern states have recorded zero rainfall in the last 20 days.

Mr Santiago, the water governance advocate, who chaired the National Water Services Commission from 2018 to 2020, said the public must be urged to reduce non-essential water use, such as car washing.

Car washes can consume up to 600 litres of water per vehicle – far exceeding Malaysia’s average daily per capita use of around 200 litres.

That figure is already high compared with the United Nations’ recommended level of 165 litres per person per day.

“We cannot tell people to drink less or wash less, but activities like washing cars can be limited to once a month,” he said.

During a heatwave in March 2024, the authorities rolled out short-term and structural measures, from urging households to cut water use and limiting non-essential consumption to deploying water tankers in affected areas and conducting cloud-seeding operations.

At the time, Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof, who also oversees the water and energy portfolio, called for longer-term steps, including raising water tariffs to fund infrastructure upgrades.

Potentially record-breaking

On March 24, climatology and climate change expert Fredolin Tangang, a fellow at the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, told local news outlet Harian Metro that the incoming El Nino could make 2026 the hottest year on record – surpassing 2024 – with a projected 1.55 deg C rise in average global temperatures.

He cited the US Climate Prediction Center’s forecast that El Nino conditions will develop between July and August, peak towards the end of the year, and subside only between March and May 2027.

“According to forecasts, the likelihood of El Nino appearing in this south-west (monsoon) season is more than 70 per cent, and this probability increases to around 80 per cent to 90 per cent until the end of this year,” he told Harian Metro.

Meanwhile, the Fire and Rescue Department has urged the public to refrain from open burning, with its director-general Nor Hisham Mohammad saying crews are responding to more than 400 fires daily nationwide. The figure is roughly four times the usual dry-season baseline and far above the annual average of about 30.

“March 23 and 24 recorded the highest numbers so far, with 452 and 444 cases respectively,” he said.

“The public needs to stop all open burning activities immediately, as 40 per cent to 60 per cent of our calls involve fires at estates, farms, forests and shrubland.”

In the first two months of 2026, the department handled 6,575 cases, compared with 9,941 for the whole of 2025.

The dry spell has also triggered three major forest and plantation fires covering 400ha in Johor and Pahang.

Most recently, a fire destroyed 150ha of a 500ha oil palm plantation in Pekan, Pahang, with 28 firefighters from two stations working overnight to contain the blaze.