Most Thais expect political chaos to persist as election looms

BANGKOK – Most Thais surveyed expect political chaos to persist as the general election edges closer, even as the economic situation is anticipated to improve.

Domestic political turmoil is expected to prevail this year, said 45 per cent of 1,310 respondents, while 36 per cent think the disarray will intensify, according to a survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) released on Sunday. Ten per cent project the tumult will subside.

Thailand will use a two-ballot system in the next polls, with one vote cast for a constituency candidate and another for a party. Under new electoral rules that favour bigger parties, 400 parliamentary seats will be given first to winning constituency candidates and the other 100 seats will be allocated based on the proportion of votes that each party receives. 

A date for the next general election must be confirmed by March, with many analysts expecting the actual vote in May. 

Vote-buying during the election is expected by 62.6 per cent of those surveyed, while 36.6 per cent anticipate there is a tendency of wielding political influence and state power in campaigning, said Nida. Election fraud is expected by 33.7 per cent of respondents, though masterminds are not likely to be prosecuted.

Meanwhile, 37.3 per cent of respondents expect the domestic economic situation to improve and 28 per cent think the economy would deteriorate, said Nida.

Gross domestic product in the July-September period rose 4.5 per cent from a year earlier, thanks to a tourism recovery and increased private consumption, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council. BLOOMBERG