Marcos v Duterte: Philippine dynasties clash for Senate control in midterm polls

MANILA – The Philippines’ ruling alliance is at war with itself in the final days of the midterm election season.

Once staunch allies, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice-President Sara Duterte are now locked in their fiercest political clash yet, as these scions of the country’s two most powerful dynasties battle for dominance over the Senate.

The outcome could not only decide the future of their fractured coalition, but also shape the race for the presidency in 2028.

On May 12, Filipinos will head to the polls to elect more than 18,000 officials nationwide in the midterms held every three years. Their picks will fill half of the 24-seat Senate, all 316 seats in the House of Representatives, and thousands of local posts – from mayors to governors and their deputies in every province, city and town.

But national attention is fixed on the Senate race, where the stakes are highest. The Marcos and Duterte factions are vying not just for legislative control but for political supremacy.

The results will serve as a referendum on Mr Marcos’ presidency.

Can he secure a Senate that will help him push his agenda in his final three years? Or will Ms Duterte – daughter of 80-year-old former president Rodrigo Duterte,

now under trial at the International Criminal Court

(ICC) for crimes against humanity during the brutal drug war that defined his time in power – emerge from the midterms with enough allies to fend off an impeachment trial in July and strengthen her prospects for a presidential run in 2028?

When campaigning for the polls kicked off in February, analysts observed that Mr Marcos positioned the Senate race as a chance to sideline Duterte loyalists and cement his status as the ruling coalition’s undisputed kingmaker.

He said voting for the 12 members of his Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas (Alliance for a New Philippines) slate would be a vote against the return of the “bloody, corrupt and pro-China” regime of Mr Duterte, whose brutal drug war left thousands dead. Mr Marcos has since reversed key policies of his predecessor, adopting a more rehabilitative approach to the drug problem and taking a firmer stance against

Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea

.

But when the ICC arrested Mr Duterte in March, the tides turned.

The arrest galvanised the Duterte base, whose political machinery was long thought to be fading. Analysts believe this was the moment the Marcos camp realised it could not afford to escalate tensions with the Dutertes.

“It solidified the (Duterte) base,” said Dr Aries Arugay, visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “And it shifted the narrative of Sara Duterte – from an incompetent and allegedly anomalous politician, to a supportive, loyal, doting daughter who will carry out the fight started by her father.”

And so Mr Marcos made a pivot on the campaign trail. At his May 7 rally in Bulacan, north of the capital Manila, the President did not attack the Dutertes. Instead, he called for unity and laid out how his Senate slate could tackle the country’s problems, namely the higher cost of living, corruption and poverty.

“On Monday (May 12), don’t forget that this election isn’t just about choosing who our next senators will be. This election will guide the government, our society on how our beloved Philippines will move forward,” Mr Marcos said.

The shift in tone was strategic. After a year of economic challenges and rising food prices, Mr Marcos’ approval ratings have dropped by 17 percentage points to 25 per cent in March, a survey by local pollster Pulse Asia Research showed just days after Mr Duterte’s arrest on March 11.

Meanwhile, Ms Duterte saw a 7 percentage point jump in her approval ratings to 59 per cent,

despite her looming impeachment trial

for alleged misuse of public funds and assassination threats against Mr Marcos, First Lady Louise Araneta-Marcos and the president’s cousin, House Speaker Martin Romualdez.

That same survey showed high disapproval ratings across all socio-economic classes for Mr Marcos’ performance in taming inflation (79 per cent), fighting graft and corruption (53 per cent), and reducing poverty (48 per cent).

Still, a separate survey released in April by another local pollster WR Numero Research showed that 62 per cent of Filipinos approved of Mr Duterte standing trial before the ICC for his alleged crimes.

Sara Duterte goes on the offensive

With her poll numbers up, Ms Duterte smelled blood and went on the offensive.

Speaking at the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan’s (PDP-Laban) senatorial slate rally on May 8, the Vice-President accused Mr Marcos of weakness, incompetence and complicity in her father’s arrest.

“We are now paying the price for electing the wrong leader,” said Ms Duterte, rousing the crowd into chanting her surname.

The Vice-President has fully thrown her weight behind the 10 members of the PDP-Laban slate. Two of them served in her father’s Cabinet and will likely win their bid for re-election: Senators Ronald dela Rosa and Bong Go, Mr Duterte’s long-time aide and confidant, who has a high chance of getting the largest number of votes.

Ms Duterte also explicitly endorsed two crossover candidates from the Marcos camp: Senator Imee Marcos, the President’s sister, and House lawmaker Camille Villar, both of whom recently distanced themselves from the President in a bid to attract more of the pro-Duterte voters.

A fractured coalition, a fragile mandate

Analysts say that with no major reform agenda and a weakening grip on his coalition, Mr Marcos needs enough allies in the Senate to pass legislation, shield himself from political attacks and position a successor for 2028.

Yet in the final stretch of the campaign, his slate has shown signs of crumbling. His sister, Senator Marcos, and Ms Villar have released campaign ads where they were endorsed by Ms Duterte. Ms Marcos took swipes at her brother’s administration and even led a Senate probe that questioned Mr Duterte’s arrest.

It was a public unravelling that has not gone unnoticed.

“Marcos Jr cannot keep his house in order,” said Dr Arugay.

The stakes go beyond the midterms for Mr Marcos, said senior research fellow Michael Yusingco of Manila-based think-tank Ateneo Policy Centre. The President needs a Senate majority to also protect his legacy.

“The more (Marcos) administration-allied candidates in Congress, the easier for him to ensure that his chosen successor becomes president,” he said.

Personalities, not platforms

Despite the high-stakes feud between Mr Marcos and Ms Duterte, analysts say most Filipinos are still likely to vote based on personalities rather than platforms and issues.

Pre-election surveys suggest a mixed Senate outcome. Among those poised to win are at least nine candidates from Mr Marcos’ slate, along with four from Ms Duterte’s camp, two independents and two opposition bets. Several of them are still statistically tied in polls, so every vote will count on election day.

Most of the contenders belong to well-entrenched, well-funded political families that have dominated Philippine politics for decades. In a country where elections are often shaped more by personalities than platforms, 2025’s midterms appear no different.

“So all of those who will win will be traditional politicians,” said Mr Yusingco. “And what that tells the world is, we are still a democracy that is based on personality politics... that our democratic brand is really about the domination of political dynasties.”