Marriage of Malaysian ruling partners is on the rocks. Will the alliance survive the polls?

JOHOR BAHRU – Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has issued his sharpest ultimatum yet to coalition partner Barisan Nasional (BN), warning that a breakdown in their alliance could trigger a snap general election.

Datuk Seri Anwar’s remark highlighted the fragility of the relationship between his Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN, raising fresh doubts about whether the alliance can survive until the end of the current term in December 2027.

“In the near term, I will have negotiations with the PH leadership, not just in this state. But if this is the way we are being treated, maybe a general election for the entire country will be held,” he said at the PH Convention in Johor Bahru on May 17.

In a fiery keynote speech before thousands of delegates, he also said that he will not tolerate “threats” by PH’s rival-turned-partner.

Mr Anwar, who is PH chairman, was not the only one directing scorn against BN. Other top leaders in PH called for a purge of “betrayals” by UMNO if BN continues a path of confrontation.

Democratic Action Party secretary-general Anthony Loke credited the unity government for delivering projects to Johor such as the Rapid Transit System Link, the Electric Train Service and the Senai Airport expansion, implying that decades of BN rule had left many promises unfulfilled.

Meanwhile, Parti Amanah Negara president Mohamad Sabu likened the coalition to a troubled marriage, where the husband’s requests go ignored. He said that instead of fulfilling those requests, the wife is “looking at other people’s husband”, a remark interpreted as referring to reported UMNO outreach to opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional.

“It’s hard to come together, but to break up is easy,” he said.

Tensions in Negeri Sembilan, Johor blow up

The sharp rhetoric reflected weeks of escalating tensions between the two coalitions.

A crisis was first triggered in Negeri Sembilan, when 14 UMNO assemblymen withdrew support for PH chief minister Aminuddin Harun in late April, sparking a stand-off involving the state palace and government figures.

This was followed by a declaration from Johor’s BN chief minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi on May 16, in which he said that his coalition will contest all 56 state seats.

In response, Mr Anwar told PH delegates on May 17 that PH may also contest all seats in both states.

“If (UMNO) truly feels that their time is up in the states, then yes, we will begin with Johor, then Negeri Sembilan, and I am thinking, maybe... we will throw it out there for the people to decide for the entire country,” said Mr Anwar.

“We don’t take (kindly to) threats. Beaten? I have been beaten. Jailed? I have done that. Now threatened by a child? Oh! No way!” he said, in an apparent reference to the 47-year-old Johor chief minister.

Johor PH chairman Aminolhuda Hassan also called on the delegates to “bury” BN for the second time in Johor – a reference to the 2018 election when PH briefly ended BN’s long-time grip on the state.

Malaysia is due to hold a series of state elections ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), which must be held by February 2028. Melaka’s term ends in December 2026, followed by Sarawak in February 2027 and Johor two months later.

But talk is rife that Johor could head to the polls by the end of 2026.

Mr Anwar declared during the convention that “the drums have beaten, and war is declared”, while Mr Loke said “we have entered the ring”.

BN leaders in Johor have denied allegations that the coalition is trying to undermine the partnership, calling the claims that contesting all 56 seats amounts to betrayal “untrue and confusing”.

In its defence, BN said it had won a two-thirds supermajority on its own in Johor at the last election, and that the federal power-sharing model was never extended to Johor, where BN governs alone.

BN won 40 seats during the 2022 state election, while PH took 12.

BN’s denial did not halt the escalation in tension. UMNO Youth chief Akmal Saleh added fuel to it on May 18 by declaring that “it is time UMNO leaves the unity government”.

Rift may reshape GE16 calculations

Analysts said the rupture may now be irreversible. It shows how both coalitions are recalibrating their political strategies ahead of GE16, even as they try to keep channels open for future cooperation.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia associate professor Mazlan Ali said the prospect of future BN-PH cooperation remains uncertain, despite cordial ties between Mr Anwar and UMNO president Zahid Hamidi at the federal level.

He said it is important for BN and PH to “clear the deadlock” of their rivalries in Johor and Negeri Sembilan before the country heads to the polls.

Mr Amir Fareed Rahim, strategic director of consultancy KRA Group, said: “The recent episodes such as the tensions surrounding Negeri Sembilan have reinforced suspicions within both camps, particularly among grassroots machinery and local leaders, who still view one another as long-term competitors rather than natural allies.”

Mr Amir said growing confidence within UMNO over its Malay support base has fuelled hopes that strong state election results could strengthen the party’s leverage in negotiations with PH ahead of GE16.

Dr Francis Hutchinson, coordinator of the Malaysia Studies Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said both coalitions are expected to fight aggressively at the state level while maintaining some restraint nationally.

However, he cautioned that UMNO may be “pushing too hard against PH”.

Should the alliance hold until GE16, he said both sides would likely contest separately while carving out informal agreements to avoid head-to-head clashes in key seats.

“Things at the highest level will remain somewhat cordial as both coalitions need to keep the door open for another working agreement to secure a parliamentary majority,” he added.