Malaysia PM’s alliance aims to win by-election battle in opposition stronghold state of Kelantan

GUA MUSANG, Malaysia – An upcoming by-election battle in a remote Kelantan constituency is being closely tracked in Malaysia, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s governing alliance aiming to recapture the seat and show he can win back Malay voters.

The Nenggiri ward is located beside the Taman Negara rainforest park and surrounded by beautiful, lush green limestone hills.

It is some three hours by road from both the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur and Kota Bharu, the Kelantan state capital.

At the close of nominations on Aug 3, the Election Commission declared that the contest will be between a local leader from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and an Umno chieftain.

Voting will take place on Aug 17 and follows a 14-day campaigning period.

Bersatu is a member of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) federal opposition, while Umno leads the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition that backs Datuk Seri Anwar.

BN is aiming to put up a spirited fight to win back the state seat as Nenggiri was won by PN in the 2023 state polls by only 810 votes, with more than 20,000 ballots cast.

Analyst Bridget Welsh told The Straits Times that BN has a chance to regain its former stronghold if it can come up with new campaign methods.

“I favour a PN win, although this is a winnable seat for BN if it is able to swing a small share of voters and bring back its traditional voters to vote,” said the honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute-Malaysia.

“However, this depends on the campaign and whether BN offers an innovative campaign. For now, if trends continue, PN should have a marginal increase in support,” Dr Welsh added.

Villagers in Nenggiri told ST earlier this week that the area’s economic activities revolve mainly around oil palm cultivation and rubber tapping. Many elderly residents had received government allocations of 4ha plots – the size of five football fields – to plant oil palm and rubber trees.

The nearest commercial district to Nenggiri lies 16km away in Gua Musang town, which has seen a surge of development over the past decade. The town now has KFC, Pizza Hut, Subway and McDonald’s outlets, along with a huge RM28 million (S$8.3 million) mosque backed by the area’s dominant politician, Umno’s Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Faster internet connectivity has also reached the remote region, and along with it social media information – and arguments that abound in Malaysian politics.

Nenggiri resident Abu Khalifah Mohamed Salleh, for one, said he is confident of a PN victory and dismissed BN’s chances.

The government’s push in June to remove diesel subsidies, he said, has raised the cost of goods in the state, while commodity prices such as that of crude palm oil have declined in recent months.

“The people here used to get more than RM1,000 (S$298) per tonne and now it’s around RM750 per tonne for palm oil. They used to make roughly RM10,000 every three months but now it’s around RM7,500 every three months.

“With the diesel (subsidy) cut, how are they going to survive?” asked Mr Abu.

PN’s Bersatu candidate Mohd Azizi Abu Naim wrested Nenggiri from BN in the state polls in August 2023 by only 810 votes.

But he was removed in June by his party and the by-election was called.

This came about after the Kelantan state assembly Speaker said the seat has been vacated as Mr Azizi professed support for the Prime Minister, which is in contravention of Malaysia’s anti-hopping law.

Nenggiri had 20,219 voters in 2023 – 85.9 per cent are Malays, 0.2 per cent Chinese, and 13.8 per cent from other ethnic groups, including a large number of the indigenous Orang Asli.

The Aug 17 by-election will see PN’s Mr Mohd Rizwadi Ismail, a former navy man, standing against Umno’s Mr Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani, the party’s district youth chief.

Mr Anwar’s coalition badly needs a win in Nenggiri, after being trounced in the Malay-majority Sungai Bakap state by-election in Penang in July, a defeat that has hardened views that he has failed to attract support from Malays – Malaysia’s largest ethnic group – despite being 20 months into the job as premier.

He did not turn up at all to campaign in Sungai Bakap, which was seen as a sure signal that his side expected to lose. It remains to be seen if he will now campaign in Nenggiri.

A PN win in Nenggiri, while having little impact on Mr Anwar’s administration, will reinforce views that his hopes for improved Malay support remain elusive.

However, a BN win in this Kelantan state seat would be a big psychological setback for PN, which commands 42 of the 45 seats in Kelantan’s state legislature.

PN, led by Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and Bersatu, now controls the four so-called Malay belt states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, with Mr Anwar needing to weaken these Malay-Muslim parties by the next general election in 2027.

During ST’s visit to Nenggiri, several of the 18 local residents interviewed showed why BN had been able to hold on to the seat for most of the constituency’s 20-year existence: the attention given to the ground by the coalition.

“The BN candidate has already met us and donated 2kg of rice, a can of powdered milk, a packet of sugar, and a packet of cooking oil. Of course I’m voting BN. I always vote BN,” said Mr Hashim Derani.

“PAS, which has ruled (Kelantan state) for decades, has never given us anything,” said the 58-year-old, adding that his village in Seriyang Batu 12 is one of the last BN strongholds in the area.

But Merdeka Center for Opinion Research co-founder Ibrahim Suffian told ST that even though Nenggiri was a BN stronghold, PN has solid grassroots support across the state, giving the latter a strong advantage.

“BN in Kelantan has been under a lot of pressure for many years now. I think it’s not so easy for BN to turn (things) around at this point,” said Mr Ibrahim.

Meanwhile, seeing that PN is in for a tough battle, Tanpa Mukim village chief Hadi Daud, 60, said he has asked all his eight children to return to the ward to vote.

“It is important for us to reject any party hopping. We cannot have people who are not committed to the political cause and are selfish leading us,” said Mr Hadi.

Like Mr Hadi’s children, 27-year-old Nureen Jasmine Ismail said she is back in Nenggiri to cast her vote, but unlike Mr Hadi, she kept her cards close to her chest when it came to where her allegiance lies.

“The important thing is the candidate can do the work here,” Ms Nureen told ST.