Influential leader and 20 other MPs depart ruling party in Thailand, weakening governing coalition

BANGKOK - The departure on Wednesday of the powerful but controversial secretary-general of Thailand's ruling Palang Pracharat (PPRP) not only spells trouble for the already fractured party but also an increasingly fragile governing coalition.

As many as 20 MPs will be leaving the PPRP to join Mr Thamanat Prompow, who local media reported would be joining the Thai Economic Party.

Mr Thamanat has a tense relationship with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, and his exit could be interpreted as a win for the Thai leader. 

But analysts believe the move would ultimately be disadvantageous to the Premier and the pro-military PPRP, which was formed just a year before the 2019 election.

In a press conference on Thursday (Jan 20), PPRP's deputy leader Paiboon Nititawan disclosed that the former secretary-general had demanded a revamp of the party's structure, warning that it would otherwise be in trouble.

The "release" of Mr Thamanat and the group of MPs loyal to him was therefore necessary to maintain the stability and unity of the PPRP.

"If this matter is not handled, the party's overall image will be shattered and divided," said Mr Paiboon.

The deputy leader also said that Mr Prayut had nothing to do with the matter as the Premier was not a party member. The PPRP has strong ties with Mr Prayut and nominated him for the premiership after the 2019 general election.

Some analysts said further defections could be fatal to the ruling party and coalition as well as Mr Prayut's hold on power.

"(The future) will depend on the PPRP's ability to hold out against another outflow of its MPs," said Associate Professor Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee from Chulalongkorn University, noting that the coalition still had the majority of seats.

"The core group (in the PPRP) might hold out, but the party will collapse," she said.

On Monday, two other Members of Parliament from the PPRP resigned to join a new party.

The party called Srang Anakot Thai or "Building Thailand's Future", was founded by former finance minister Uttama Savanayana and former energy minister Sontirat Sontijirawong. The party leaders said they would not back Mr Prayut for another term as premier.

Mr Thamanat's split from the PPRP will be beneficial to him, said ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute visiting fellow, Dr Punchada Sirivunnabood.

"He can use his network to get more negotiation power at a new party," she said, referring to the former army captain who late last year was accused of plotting to oust Mr Prayut during a no-confidence vote in Parliament.

Despite a controversial background that includes a drug-related conviction in Australia, Mr Thamanat wields significant influence among provincial governments and has often been credited for cobbling together the current ruling coalition.

The group of MPs who left with Mr Thamanat are mostly constituency leaders with strong grassroots support in the provinces and districts, said Dr Punchada, noting that this would help draw votes at the next general election.

"Perhaps even more MPs from the PPRP will join him," she said.

Dr Punchada and Prof Siripan believe that the latest developments will not prompt the Prime Minister to dissolve Parliament and call for an election, especially with public disquiet over the state of the economy and the rising cost of living.

But Dr Paul Chambers, a lecturer from Naresuan University's Centre of Asean Community Studies, believes an early election cannot be ruled out.

"It's a rapidly destabilising situation in Parliament right now," he said.

He said Mr Prayut would be forced to call for an early election if the ruling coalition is unable to maintain its grip on Parliament.

"This could create a gridlock for the PPRP, who might not get enough votes for issues like no-confidence motions or censures," he said.

Prior to recent developments, the ruling coalition had around 270 seats in Parliament and the opposition bloc had around 205.

Since the 2019 election, Mr Prayut has survived three no-confidence votes.

The leader of Pheu Thai, the largest opposition party, Mr Cholnan Srikaew, has warned that he would be tabling another no-confidence motion against the government over its handling of the economy, soaring food prices and the Covid-19 pandemic.