JAKARTA - Indonesia has seen around 1,000 fresh coronavirus infections in a single day throughout this week, and epidemiologists warn that the trend may continue until at least the end of June as the authorities ramp up testing and contact tracing.
The world's fourth most-populous nation reported 1,241 new cases on Wednesday (June 10), a record single-day jump, and saw more than 1,000 cases on Tuesday (1,043), Friday (1,111) and Saturday (1,014), compared to several hundreds daily in the previous weeks.
The government spokesman on Covid-19 management, Dr Achmad Yurianto, said more aggressive contact tracing caused the significant rise in new cases.
The total infections climbed to 38,277 on Sunday (June 14), while fatalities rose to 2,134, the highest in South-east Asia.
University of Indonesia epidemiologist Pandu Riono attributed the considerable increase in daily cases to the ineffective ban on the massive exodus to home towns ahead of Hari Raya Aidilfitri, which fell on May 24 this year.
Each year, millions of people in Jakarta and other big cities make the home-bound journeys at the end of the Ramadan fasting month, an exodus better known as mudik. But this year, the government imposed the ban to curb the spread of the Covid-19. Despite this, it is estimated that nearly 1.6 million managed to leave the capital.
"The jump in cases this week is the impact of mudik. The figure will continue to rise in mid-June to end of June," Dr Pandu told The Straits Times.
He noted that the relaxation of social restrictions in many parts of the country will also drive the surge in infections in the coming weeks.
Workplaces, places of worship, shopping centres and recreational venues reopened gradually from early June, but they must operate at 50 per cent capacity and ensure people keep 1m away from one another. Earlier, many parts of Indonesia imposed partial lockdowns by closing all these places.
President Joko Widodo has warned of the potential second wave of Covid-19 cases.
"I remind you that our big task has not ended as the conditions are still dynamic," he told the Covid-19 task force on Wednesday (June 10).
"I warn you all, don't let the second wave come. Don't let the cases jump," he said.
However, Dr Panji Hadisoemarto, an epidemiologist at the University of Padjadjaran, worried that the first wave is not even over.
"I think we've not yet seen the peak. At the national level, the cumulative cases keep rising, while the new cases keep surging," he said, noting that the peak should be followed by a constant decline of infections.
Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan said the city reached its peak of infections in April. But after posting a low number of cases in late May, the city of around 10 million people reported a rebound of infections recently.
Epidemiologists have called for the authorities to step up testing and contact tracing as activities in offices and other venues, such as shopping malls, resume gradually in Jakarta and other cities.
"Wherever it is, the testing capacity must be doubled or tripled when easing restrictions," Dr Pandu said.
According to the Indonesian government, the total number of tests nationwide to date is 495,527, out of a population of about 270 million.
Dr Panji noted that when more testing leads to the discovery of new cases, it could reflect the ongoing widespread infections on the ground.
"We cannot justify that finding of new cases with intensive contact tracing is a good thing," he said.
He added: "What we want to see is that with the increased testing and contact tracing, the number of cases declines."
Dr Panji also said enhancing the testing capacity in other regions outside Jakarta will be key to prevention efforts and lowering the risks of infections, particularly in areas with poor health facilities.
All regions must have equal access to testing, he said.
The World Health Organisation has set one test per 1,000 population a week as a laboratory testing benchmark, and Jakarta deputy governor Ahmad Riza Patria said the city has been meeting the standard.
However, on the national level, Indonesia's testing capacity has yet to be able to achieve the standard.
The country still lags its South-east Asian neighbours as it tests only 1,813 per one million people, compared with the Philippines (4,525), Thailand (6,708) and Singapore (83,564), according to Worldometers.
The task force said Indonesia had recently upgraded its testing capacity to more than 10,000 per day after struggling with the shortage of imported reagents and a testing backlog in laboratories, and the President has ordered the Covid-19 task force to double the testing capacity.
