Indonesia’s Prabowo increases lead in latest pre-election survey

JAKARTA - Indonesia’s Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, who has declared plans to run for president a third time, is gaining momentum seven months away from the vote, according to the latest survey.

The former special-forces commander, who lost the past two elections to Mr Joko Widodo, topped a Lingkaran Survei Indonesia survey released on Monday with an approval rating of 34.3 per cent.

That is higher than the 33.9 per cent in the agency’s May polling when he first surpassed Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo.

The latest survey signals that Mr Prabowo, 71, is gaining ground ahead of the Feb 14 presidential race after trailing Mr Ganjar in popularity for more than a year.

Mr Ganjar, the candidate of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, remains in second place with 32.7 per cent followed by former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan.

“Prabowo topping the survey is a result of a rebranding exercise which he has carried out in the past year, one of which is to target millennials,” said Mr D. Nicky Fahrizal, a researcher at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“The strategy of sticking close to Jokowi to capitalise on his popularity and success is also reaping rewards,” he said, using the popular name for President Widodo.

Mr Widodo’s second and final presidential term will end in October 2024.

As election fever heats up, investors are closely watching whether

the next administration will continue or upend Mr Widodo’s key policies

including the creation of a US$34 billion (S$45.6 billion) new capital and a push towards onshore processing of resources to turn Indonesia into a high-income nation by 2045.

Mr Widodo is positioning himself as a power broker in Indonesia for decades to come, according to a Bloomberg report in June. With his popularity at an all-time high, the incumbent’s endorsement will be crucial.

Involved in picking Mr Ganjar as the ruling party candidate, the President’s inner circle has

discussed a possibility in which he backs his defence minister

if Mr Ganjar slips before the February vote.

In the past month, Mr Widodo and Mr Prabowo, a former son-in-law of dictator Suharto, have met at least thrice. At a June 18 lunch meeting, Mr Widodo told the local media the two discussed political issues.

After their June 26 meeting at the presidential palace, Mr Prabowo said: “The President asked about my future plans.”

Neither has commented about the meeting.

Lingkaran Survei conducted its latest survey among 1,200 respondents nationwide between May 30 and June 12. BLOOMBERG