Indonesia poll projects Prabowo gaining majority votes in presidential election

JAKARTA –

Indonesian presidential contender Prabowo Subianto

is projected to pip the 50 per cent threshold needed to win the Feb 14 election in a single round, the latest opinion poll showed on Feb 9.

Of the 1,200 people surveyed by Indikator Politik Indonesia between Jan 28 and Feb 4, 51.8 per cent said they would vote for Mr Prabowo’s ticket, while 24.1 per cent and 19.6 per cent would choose his rivals, Mr Anies Baswedan and Mr Ganjar Pranowo.

This election marks the third presidential run for Mr Prabowo, a controversial former soldier who was defeated by the popular outgoing President Joko Widodo in 2014 and 2019. About 205 million people are registered to vote.

While most of Indonesia’s most watched surveys have consistently showed Mr Prabowo, the defence minister, with a solid lead over his rivals, the Feb 9 poll is the first in which he is projected to get more than 50 per cent of votes.

A run-off will be held in June if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of votes.

“Conservatively, there is a chance of a run-off. But given the 51.8 per cent and the upward trend for Prabowo’s ticket, I can say the probability of one round has risen… compared to previous surveys,” said Indikator researcher Burhanuddin Muhtadi.

He said the chances of a second round vote were “thinning”.

About 4.5 per cent of those surveyed were undecided. The margin of error of the survey was about 2.9 per cent.

The survey comes as public criticism mounts against Mr Widodo, who has been

accused of interference and bias

over his implicit support for Mr Prabowo that his allies have denied.

Critics have complained Mr Widodo has made appearances at state functions alongside Mr Prabowo, in breach of rules.

Mr Widodo has not explicitly endorsed any of the three candidates. The President’s son, Mr Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Mr Prabowo’s running mate, owing to a last-minute decision by a court headed by Mr Widodo’s brother-in-law to change eligibility rules.

Nearly 90 per cent of those surveyed by Indikator said they believed the president supports Mr Prabowo, more so than Mr Anies and Mr Ganjar, who is the candidate of Mr Widodo’s ruling party.

Mr Widodo has said he would not campaign for any candidate. Incumbents have typically stayed neutral and Indonesian law permits them to campaign as long as they do not use state resources. REUTERS