How Thai PM vote on Thursday may unfold as Move Forward’s Pita fights odds against old guard

BANGKOK – Thailand’s Parliament will meet on Thursday to select a new prime minister, with the path looking increasingly difficult for the lone candidate for the top job – Mr Pita Limjaroenrat.

Recent developments show that the progressive politician’s path to become the next prime minister is fraught with challenges that go beyond winning over the 250-member military appointed senators in Parliament.

Mr Pita’s latest hurdle is the Election Commission’s request to the Constitutional Court

on Wednesday to decide

whether he violated rules by holding stakes in a media company

when he sought to contest the election. It is unclear whether the court will accept the case and if so, when it will deliver its ruling.

If found guilty by the court, he could be disqualified as a lawmaker, and risk his premiership chances. A senator said the Parliament’s plan to hold an election for prime minister on July 13 will not be affected by the poll body’s decision.

Mr Peter Mumford, South-east Asia practice head of consultancy Eurasia Group, said: “This reaffirms that the establishment is opposed to Pita. He is unlikely to win the premiership vote, if he is allowed to contest.”

Mr Pita cobbled together an alliance of eight parties that hold more than 60 per cent of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives after the May 14 General Election. He still needs the support of senators to reach the minimum 376 combined Parliament votes to become prime minister.

“The country’s challenges are currently much heavier than the past five or six years. It needs a stable government that has the legitimacy to govern,” he told reporters on Wednesday after the Election Commission approached the Constitutional Court seeking his disqualification for alleged breach of poll rules. “I hope it hasn’t all been to thwart me politically. That would come with a heavy price to pay.”

Protests are already brewing across the nation, with Mr Pita’s supporters in provinces announcing plans to gather later on Wednesday. More than a dozen groups are also planning to hold a demonstration at the Parliament House on Thursday to pressure senators to back Mr Pita.

Here are some scenarios that could unfold this week:

Pita becomes PM

If the pro-democracy alliance manages to win the support of at least 65 lawmakers from either the conservative parties or the establishment-aligned Senate, Mr Pita, 42, will have the magic number – 376 votes – to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister and the youngest in nearly eight decades.

His main obstacle in Parliament is the old guard’s opposition to Move Forward’s agenda to amend the lese majeste law, or Section 112 of the Thai criminal code, which penalises criticism of the king and other royals.

If this scenario plays out, Mr Pita will proceed to form his Cabinet likely to be dominated by members of his Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai, the party that placed second in the election and is linked to exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Then the new government should be in place by next month.

Pita stumbles

This is the most likely scenario for many analysts.

The majority of the Senate is expected to either reject Mr Pita’s candidacy outright or abstain from voting on July 13. The 188 members of the Lower Chamber outside of Mr Pita’s coalition are not expected to side with him either. 

Bhumjaithai, the party that placed third in the May election, has said it will not endorse a candidate from a party that seeks to amend the lese majeste law.

The upside for the Move Forward leader is that under current rules, there is no limit to the number of times the Parliament can reconvene to elect a premier. There is also no deadline for when the choice has to be made. 

If Mr Pita fails to get at least 376 votes on Thursday, he is expected to try again at the next session, which is likely on July 19. 

It remains to be seen how many times the alliance, particularly Pheu Thai, would let Mr Pita submit himself to a Parliament vote before demanding that it be given a chance to form the government.

Or Pheu Thai may explore breaking away from the coalition altogether and form a government with the conservative parties. Most analysts expect Pheu Thai to be the main variable in any potential coalition government.

In a report earlier this month, analysts at Nomura Holdings said the odds of Pheu Thai heading the government has increased to 60 per cent from 55 per cent, while the chances of Move Forward has dropped to 30 per cent from 35 per cent.

Extended impasse 

An emerging scenario is that lawmakers may vote to postpone the prime minister selection to await more clarity on the legal challenges to Mr Pita’s candidacy.

The risk that Mr Pita may be disqualified gives his opponents the scope to delay voting on his nomination. 

The adverse developments could rally his supporters and spark a wave of large demonstrations similar to what happened in 2020 when Future Forward – the forerunner of Move Forward – was disbanded and its leaders disqualified from public office.

Prospects of protests and further delays in government formation will further weigh on Thailand’s troubled stocks, bonds and currency markets. Bloomberg