Ho Chi Minh City faces rising risk of flood disasters

HO CHI MINH CITY • Vietnam's biggest metropolis Ho Chi Minh City faces an increasing risk of flood disasters, given its rapid infrastructure expansion driven by economic growth, according to a report by McKinsey Global Institute.

The chance of such events could increase five to 10 times by 2050, resulting in economic and infrastructural damage that could cost billions of dollars, according to the McKinsey report released last month.

The analysis is based on hydrological simulations, land-use maps, infrastructure databases and damage curves.

Ho Chi Minh City, a historic flood area located some 1,600km south of the capital Hanoi, contributes about a quarter of Vietnam's gross domestic product.

While the metropolis can cope with flood risks today that could hit 23 per cent of its area, further urbanisation is raising the potential for land subsidence and an increase in sea levels.

Those events could cause about US$8.4 billion (S$12 billion) of real-estate damage from flooding by 2050, six times the current estimated impact, McKinsey said.

The city still has time to adapt to avoid such risks by having better plans in place, including relocating homes and infrastructure assets away from flood-prone areas, the institute said.

Investments and fund raising are also needed to reduce exposure for roads and other critical utilities, according to the report.

Vietnam is forecast to become the 20th-largest economy in the world by 2050, given an annual economic growth rate of 5.1 per cent estimated by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

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