Growing energy crisis sparked by Iran war could further shake Filipinos’ trust in Marcos

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MANILA – For many Filipinos, a war thousands of kilometres away is now being felt most acutely at the pump.

When 72-year-old jeepney driver Jaime Ricafrente spoke to reporters during the government’s distribution of a 5,000 peso ($106) fuel subsidy to public transport drivers on March 26, he broke down in tears. 

Left out of a government cash aid list as fuel prices climbed, he said he had been unable to submit the required documents on time to be recognised as an indigent driver, effectively excluding him from assistance at a time when he needed it most.

“How long will this war go on? This is no joke… Many people will lose their livelihoods,” he said when reporters asked what he wanted to tell President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. 

As the Iran war drives up global oil prices, the energy shock is beginning to bite at home in the Philippines, threatening to test public trust in Mr Marcos at a politically sensitive moment as his approval ratings continue to decline.

With fuel and food costs expected to rise, the crisis risks deepening economic anxiety and giving fresh ammunition to his political rivals, including Vice-President Sara Duterte, amid tensions that have already exposed fractures within the ruling coalition.

Government officials have acknowledged that price pressures across the board are looming, with basic goods such as bread, canned goods and soap expected to be more expensive by April 16. The authorities are negotiating with firms to keep prices stable even beyond mid-April, as they scramble to cushion the impact on consumers.

Mr Ricafrente’s story has struck a chord precisely because it captures a broader anxiety not just about rising prices, but also about whether government support is reaching those who need it.

While Mr Ricafrente has since received assistance from the Department of Social Welfare and Development, he made clear that short-term aid is not enough: “We don’t want short-term aid. We need livelihoods.”

Commuters are bracing themselves for fare hikes, while drivers say daily earnings are shrinking. Lower-income households, which spend a larger share of their income on food and transport, are bearing the biggest brunt.

The economic squeeze would no doubt prompt Filipinos to re-evaluate the government, as well as the effectiveness of its crisis response.

The Philippines was the first country in the world to declare a state of national energy emergency in response to the crisis, a move the government framed as decisive action. But for some observers, the need to formally declare an emergency raises questions about whether contingency measures were in place to respond earlier.

Political analyst Michael Yusingco, senior research fellow at the Ateneo Policy Centre in Manila, said the declaration was “not something to be proud of”, noting that other countries may not have needed to do so because they were already responding to the situation. 

“I attribute that to (the President still) being in campaign mode. His priority is to project as if he’s doing something. So you can see him present in high-optics activities like the distribution of aid,” Mr Yusingco said. “But it’s already the second half of his term. He should be beyond that.”

Meanwhile, the government has stepped up diplomatic efforts to secure fuel supplies and protect shipping routes critical to the Philippines’ energy lifeline. 

Iran on April 2 agreed to allow safe passage for Philippine-flagged vessels, oil shipments and Filipino seafarers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point for global oil flows, following negotiations between Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro and her Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi.

“Given that the Philippines imports the majority of its energy requirements from the Middle East, these assurances from Iran will greatly facilitate the steady delivery of critical oil and fertiliser supplies to the Philippines,” the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

Parallel efforts are under way to shore up domestic fuel reserves. 

The Department of Energy said it has secured more than one million barrels of diesel through its “oil diplomacy” efforts. About 142,000 barrels of diesel from Japan arrived on March 26, while shipments from Malaysia, Singapore, India and Oman are scheduled to arrive through April.

But online, frustration is still building over the rising price of fuel and over what some see as a slow or uneven response to the crisis. “We were the first to declare (an energy emergency) because we are (the) least prepared,” Facebook user A.J. Alcruz commented during a live-streamed press conference by Mr Marcos’ spokeswoman Claire Castro. 

Such sentiments could be troubling for Mr Marcos, who is already navigating a complex domestic landscape. His alliance with Vice-President Duterte has unravelled, and ongoing impeachment proceedings against her due to alleged corruption have sharpened political divisions.

In this context, economic pressure can amplify broader perceptions about leadership and competence. 

Political analyst Cleve Arguelles, president of Manila-based public affairs firm WR Numero, said public opinion tends to show a degree of patience when price shocks are clearly external – but only if the government is seen to be actively managing the fallout and protecting vulnerable groups. “This is a test of leadership. Marcos is coming from a very low satisfaction (rating) already. So this particular crisis can lock in the public perspective that he is a weak leader... but he could also take this opportunity to regain public trust,” he said.

For Mr Marcos, who cannot seek re-election in 2028, the political stakes are less about survival and more about leverage. 

A further erosion of public trust could narrow his ability to push through key policies before his term ends, particularly as allies in Congress begin to hedge ahead of the next electoral cycle.

The dynamics are further complicated by the 2028 succession. Pre-election surveys show his erstwhile ally, Ms Duterte, is the top contender in the presidential race, while Mr Marcos has yet to signal a clear successor within his camp.

In such a scenario, a weakening presidency risks accelerating the shift of political loyalties, raising the prospect of a de facto lame duck phase for Mr Marcos that could limit his influence over both succession and policy.

This includes Bills banning political dynasties, regulating social media and reforms in banking deposit secrecy and the party list system, amid corruption scandals rocking government infrastructure projects.

Facing rising domestic pressure, Mr Marcos plans to rally regional leaders to focus on energy and food security and migrant workers – on how they can “help each other” – at May’s ASEAN summit, which will have a “bare-bones” agenda. The Philippines is the grouping’s rotating chair in 2026.

The summit slated for November is still pushing ahead, but some 600 preparatory meetings in 2026 will now follow an online format to save on costs. The first among them is the April 7 to 10 meeting for ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors.

The recalibration underscores how domestic economic pressures can shape foreign policy priorities. Issues that typically dominate ASEAN discussions, such as the South China Sea, the crisis in Myanmar and the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, risk taking a back seat as governments grapple with the more immediate effects of global instability.

At the same time, the energy crunch may nudge Manila towards a more pragmatic tone in its external engagements.

Mr Marcos has said all options are on the table to secure fuel supplies, including revisiting discussions on joint oil and gas exploration with China, a sensitive issue given longstanding maritime disputes. 

Analysts say such moves do not signal a fundamental shift in policy, but rather a greater willingness to adopt flexible, transactional approaches in times of economic strain.

Back on the road, however, such strategic calculations feel distant. For drivers like Mr Ricafrente, the concern is immediate: whether there will still be work tomorrow. 

As global conflict continues to ripple through local economies, it is these everyday pressures that may ultimately shape how Filipinos judge their leaders.