From too wet to bone dry: Indonesian coffee crop faces El Nino jolt
Sign up now: Get insights on Asia's fast-moving developments
Mr Taupik Rismawan, a 37-year-old farmer, picking coffee fruits at his plantation in Sumedang, West Java, on Aug 2.
PHOTO: REUTERS
JAKARTA/SINGAPORE - El Nino’s dry weather threatens to further dent coffee production in Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest grower, after excessive rain dragged down output to its lowest in more than a decade, driving global prices to all-time highs.
Lower coffee output in Indonesia, which mainly produces robusta beans, could trigger more gains in prices which have climbed more than 40 per cent in 2023 and hit a record high in June.
Robusta beans have a bolder and more bitter flavour than the arabica variety.
“There are forecasts of El Nino weather leading to dryness towards the end of the year and early next year in Indonesia,” said Mr Carlos Mera, head of agri-commodities markets research at Rabobank.
“If there is dryness, Indonesia’s coffee production could fall further in 2024-2025.”
Indonesia’s weather agency (BMKG) said the El Nino weather phenomenon,
There is a more than 95 per cent chance that El Nino conditions will prevail from December 2023 to February 2024, a US government weather forecaster said last week, exacerbating the risks of heatwaves and floods across several countries.
The dry conditions contrast with high rainfall in the country between 2020 and 2022 due to La Nina.
There was also heavy rain during the first five months of 2023.
In 2023-2024, Indonesia’s coffee output is forecast at 9.7 million 60kg bags, down from 11.85 million bags a year ago and lowest since 2011-2012, according to the United States Department of Agriculture data.
Rain reliance
Plantations in Sumatra and Java are likely to bear the brunt of any drought, with meteorologists forecasting El Nino to intensify towards the end of 2023 and early 2024, a crucial time for flowering and fruit formation.
Most Indonesian coffee plantations are rain-fed. The threat of dryness follows higher precipitation over the past several months across Sumatra and Java, which reduced coffee output.
“This year, my harvest is only 30 per cent compared to last year due to too much rain, causing coffee flowers to drop off early,” said Mr Peratin Buchori, 55, a farmer in Lampung, on the southern tip of Sumatra island, known for its robusta beans.
Too much rain during the flowering stage can lead flowers to drop off before berries are formed, leading to lower yields.
“Coffee supply is very thin. I would say it is down around 25 per cent compared to last year,” said one Lampung-based coffee trader, adding that the decreased supply has created panic buying in the past months.
Smallholders, low yields
Coffee yields in Indonesia range between 0.7 and 1 tonne per hectare. Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta supplier, produces 2.7 tonnes per hectare.
Almost all of Indonesia’s roughly 1.25 million ha of coffee plantations are tended by smallholder farmers, who use traditional planting methods and limited fertiliser. Many coffee trees are old, with some planted more than two decades ago.
The government has been pushing farmers to replant trees, including by providing coffee seedlings, subsidising fertilisers and extending cheap loans.
However, just 2 per cent of the total coffee plantation area has been replanted since 2018, official data showed.
“Our farmers often lack focus. They plant various commodities on their land, not just coffee,” said Mr Muhammad Rizal, director of annual and perennial crops at the Agriculture Ministry.
“They are also lacking in knowledge of good agricultural practices.”
The ministry is considering a new programme that would bring in corporate buyers to help train growers in best practices while also acting as off-takers, according to Mr Rizal. He likens the initiative to the nascent plasma farmer scheme for palm oil, the country’s top commodity.
REUTERS
