For Taiwan, Trump’s ‘protection’ money may mean new and early big-ticket arms deals
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Taiwanese soldiers launch a US-made TOW-2A wire-guided anti-tank missile during a war exercise.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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TAIPEI – Taiwan may demonstrate it takes Donald Trump’s “protection” money demand seriously with large and early new arms deals, showing it is not looking for a free ride and is determined to show Washington its resolve to spend to defend itself.
Trump, who won a second term as United States president
“Watch for Taiwan on the defence side to try and start engaging them on a big arms package – to do something significant, very large,” Mr Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, which helps broker defence exchanges between Washington and Taipei, said, adding it could come in the first quarter of 2025.
“But think of it as a down payment, an attention-getter,” he said. “They’ll stack up several big platforms and big buys of munitions.”
The US is already Taiwan’s most important arms supplier, although Taiwan has complained of an order backlog worth some US$20 billion (S$26 billion). A new order – almost US$2 billion of missile systems
Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, has faced repeated military pressure from China, including a new round of war games in October.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry, in a written report to lawmakers on Nov 7, said China might try and test the US during the presidential transition with more drills, hacking attacks or other forms of psychological warfare.
One former US official said he assessed it was “highly likely” that Taiwan would move quickly to attempt to broker a major arms deal with the US to get the Trump administration onside and counter any lingering inclination he has that Taiwan fleeced the US on semiconductors.
“They will want to solidify their fealty quickly to lock in Trump’s interest,” he said of Taiwan, speaking on condition of anonymity to be able to speak freely.
Taiwan’s defence pact with Washington ended in 1979, along with official diplomatic relations, so it does not directly pay for US forces to be based on its soil, unlike Japan and South Korea.
On Nov 7, Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung avoided answering questions from reporters on what protection money for the US might look like, but told lawmakers defence spending, now around 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product, would increase.
“The trend is for it to keep rising,” he said.
Taiwan’s defence ministry referred Reuters to comments on Nov 6 by Deputy Defence Minister Po Horng-huei in Parliament that Defence Minister Wellington Koo has made it very clear Taiwan’s determination to defend itself will never change.
“It is our responsibility to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Mr Po said.
Friends of Taiwan
Several names being considered for top jobs in the new US administration are people who are strong supporters of Taiwan, including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who after leaving office called for formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, who visited Taiwan in 2023.
Mr O’Brien on Nov 6 tweeted his thanks to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te for his congratulations to Trump, cheering officials in Taiwan, although Mr Lai’s office said there were no plans for a call between him and Trump
One Taiwan-based security source, also speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, said if people like Mr O’Brien or Mr Pompeo got top jobs, it would be “fantastic” for Taiwan, but that Taiwan also needed to show it took defence spending seriously.
“Trump asking for protection money is probably the jolt Taiwan needs to really ramp up its defence spending,” the official said, adding a new arms deal in the new year would be an excellent way of showing Trump it would do so.
Trump won fans in Taiwan during his first term in office, first by speaking to then President Tsai Ing-wen shortly after winning election, and then with arms sales, visits by Cabinet members to Taipei and a strong line on China.
Mr Vincent Chao, who was spokesman for Mr Lai’s presidential campaign and is a regular visitor to the US, said all possible candidates being discussed publicly for Trump’s state and defence secretaries are considered “Taiwan friendly”.
“When it comes to Trump, people say it is about what he does, not what he says,” Mr Chao said, referring to Trump’s comments on Taiwan during the campaign. “There’s no need for Taiwanese to worry. We should have confidence.” REUTERS
