Explainer: How will Thailand’s election play out?

BANGKOK – Thailand is holding a general election on Feb 8, in a three-way contest that is the latest round in a turbulent battle for power between the country’s progressive, populist and conservative camps.

Who is best placed to win?

Opinion polls consistently show the progressive People’s Party is Thailand’s most popular party. With its ambitious reform agenda and mastery of social media, it has huge appeal among young and urban Thais and is seen as a force to be reckoned with.

Its predecessor, The Move Forward Party, won the 2023 election, taking all but one of the 33 seats in capital Bangkok and making inroads into conservative strongholds. But it lacked the parliamentary support needed to form a government, despite a pact with the second-placed Pheu Thai Party.

Surveys indicate that the People’s Party has lost none of its momentum. It was backed by 36 per cent of respondents in a Jan 16 to 28 poll of 26,661 people by Suan Dusit University, with the former ruling party Pheu Thai on 22.1 per cent and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party third on 18.9 per cent.

A Jan 23 to 27 survey of 2,500 people by the National Institute for Development Administration showed 34.2 per cent support for the People’s Party, with Bhumjaithai at 22.6 per cent and Pheu Thai on 16.2 per cent.

At the last election in 2023, the People’s Party’s forerunner won 151 of the 500 seats at stake, while Pheu Thai took 141 and Bhumjaithai won 71.

Will the winner form a government?

An outright majority for any of the three main parties is unlikely, making an alliance almost certain to be required to form a government.

But this could be tricky given bad blood and ideological differences between the parties, with bitter histories of betrayal and big fallouts over the past six months. Pacts with some of the dozens of smaller parties running could be decisive in breaking any deadlock, and the party that wins most seats in the election may not prevail.

The People’s Party’s advantage will be its strength at the ballot box, but forming a coalition could be difficult. Bhumjaithai’s politically savvy leader Anutin is an accomplished dealmaker willing to work with any party, and his efforts would likely be backed by influential conservatives outside of politics.

The once-dominant Pheu Thai, controlled by the billionaire Shinawatra family, has a big war chest at its disposal, though it has been hit by defections to Bhumjaithai and declining popularity. Some analysts believe Pheu Thai is most likely to again partner Bhumjaithai to form a government.

What are challenges to People’s Party?

The People’s Party looks to have the upper hand, but its liberal, anti-establishment agenda and long-term quest for institutional reform could stand in its way, even if it has moderated its stance of late.

Its popularity and policies, which have included tackling monopolies and reforms to the military and judiciary, could upend Thailand’s decades-old status quo and threaten the interests of business groups, powerful elites and royalist generals. It has very influential enemies.

Its first incarnation, Future Forward, was dissolved by a court in 2020 for a campaign finance violation, triggering street protests. It returned as Move Forward and won the most votes in the 2023 election, but was blocked from forming a government by army-appointed senators and dissolved by a court for campaigning to amend a law that protects the monarchy from criticism.

It regrouped again as the People’s Party, the English name commonly used by the Khana Ratsadon, which led a 1932 revolution ending Thailand’s absolute monarchy.

The People’s Party is bracing itself for more legal action, with the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which has a broad remit, now investigating 44 former Move Forward lawmakers for ethics breaches for attempting to change the royal insult law in 2021, a plan it has since dropped.

Among those under investigation are 15 People’s Party members, including two of its three prime ministerial candidates – leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakun. If referred to the Supreme Court, they could face political bans.

Can Anutin prevail?

Mr Anutin, 59, is a political pragmatist with a party big enough to negotiate key ministerial posts and a place in numerous coalition governments.

A staunch royalist who has positioned himself strategically between rival political clans, his rise to the premiership in September 2025 demonstrated his ability to outfox opponents, moving quickly after a court sacked then Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and lobbying parties to abandon her coalition and back him instead.

Mr Anutin needs to drum up more support and expand on Bhumjaithai’s 71 seats from the last election and leverage his ties in the country’s establishment to help form an alliance capable of keeping the People’s Party at bay.

How is a prime minister chosen?

Parties contesting the election have submitted up to three prime ministerial candidates. Any party with at least 25 seats can nominate a candidate to be put to a parliamentary vote.

Support from more than half of the Lower House’s 500 members is required to become prime minister. If a candidate fails, the House must convene again, and the process is repeated for other candidates until a prime minister is chosen, with no time limit on this process. REUTERS