Detained in The Hague, Duterte pursues a political comeback at home

DAVAO CITY, Philippines – Rodrigo Duterte has been kept in a cell in The Hague for more than three weeks on charges of crimes against humanity for the deadly anti-drug campaigns he oversaw in the Philippines.

But the former Philippine president is still on the ballot in elections for the post of mayor in his home base in May, a race that political analysts say he stands a good chance of winning. A wave of sympathy for him has also prompted candidates in other races to express support for him.

Even from a distance, he still draws crowds.

Thousands of people dressed in the green associated with his political party flooded the streets of Davao City, in the southern Philippines, on March 28, turning an 80th birthday celebration for Duterte into an enormous political rally.

Other rallies took place across the Philippines and abroad – including outside the detention centre at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Netherlands where he is being held after having been

arrested on March 11.

In Davao, Duterte remains widely popular, remembered for cracking down on problems like drugs, petty crime and violence.

“Why is the man who saved us the one in jail?” asked Mr Joel Valles, 46, who joined the rally in March with his mother Proferia Valles, 84.

The restaurant the Valleses run in Davao City, Sana’s Original Kabawan and Bulaloan, was a favourite hangout of Duterte’s and is adorned with photographs of the former president and his children.

Like many business owners in Davao, Mr Valles said he had closed early so his employees could attend the gathering.

Many people brought cakes and large cardboard cutouts with pictures of Duterte to the rally. A concert followed, with singers and local politicians appearing onstage until midnight.

As mayor, Duterte was lionised in the Philippines. When he launched a bid for the presidency in 2016, Mr Ferdinand Marcos Jr – now the President – flew to Davao to ask if he could be his running mate. (He was turned down.)

To Duterte’s supporters, Davao became a model city under him: safe, orderly and disciplined. His critics said it was a place where extrajudicial killings of suspected criminals were normalised.

Duterte is accused by the ICC of running a so-called death squad in Davao City, a vigilante group that acted as judge, jury and executioner. Its targets mainly were petty criminals and small-time drug dealers from poor neighbourhoods, rights groups say.

From 1998 to 2015, the squad killed at least 1,424 people in Davao alone, according to a local coalition cited by Amnesty International. As president, Duterte’s drug war was even bloodier. Rights groups place the death toll at between 12,000 and 30,000.

Now Duterte is trying a political comeback from his cell, running for mayor of the city he first governed in 1988 and ruled for over two decades.

His youngest son, Sebastian, holds the post but has stepped aside to run for vice-mayor. The campaign for the May 12 election began on March 28 – Rodrigo Duterte’s birthday.

Mr Karlo Nograles, a former Cabinet secretary for Duterte when he was president, had been seen as leading the mayoral race against the unpopular incumbent. But political analysts said Duterte’s candidacy had upended the race, and that he stood a good chance of winning.

Analysts see the candidacies of Duterte and his family members as an effort to defend and maintain the crumbling dynasty of the former president’s family in the south.

Another son of Duterte, Paolo, is also running for office as a district representative. Mr Paolo Duterte’s son, Rodrigo II, is aiming to become a city councillor. If all four Dutertes win, and the former president resigns after the election, Sebastian would become mayor, and Rodrigo II could become vice-mayor if he wins more votes than other elected councillors.

With elections for the Senate taking place the same day, Duterte’s campaign has also had ripple effects in national politics.

That has further complicated a tangled web of allegiances and rivalries in which Mr Marcos has been at odds with his Vice-President, Ms Sara Duterte, his predecessor’s daughter.

Mr Marcos said early in his administration that he would not cooperate with the ICC in its pursuit of Duterte, but later reversed course after Ms Duterte threatened to have him and his family assassinated.

In Manila, some candidates for the Senate who are aligned with Duterte appeared to be getting a slight lift in the polls, political analysts say. Even some candidates backed by Mr Marcos, including his sister Imee, have spoken out against Duterte’s arrest.

Still, questions linger about how long the Dutertes can sustain their momentum.

Ms Duterte has said her father longed to come home and “serve Davao”. But in the same breath, she urged supporters to move on because he “may never return”.

Back in Davao, the crowd at the birthday rally seemed hopeful he would.

At one point, a drone show lit up the night sky, with the formations showing a series of images: Duterte’s face, his trademark clenched fist, and then his signature.

“Bring him home!” the crowd cried. NYTIMES