China steps out of diplomatic shadows to take credit for efforts on Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire

BANGKOK/SINGAPORE - For months, China seemed content to cede the diplomatic initiative to a bullish Trump administration as border tensions flared between Cambodia and Thailand, with Beijing stressing that it has “its own way” of mediating the deadly conflict.

But as China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Dec 29 hosted his Cambodian and Thai counterparts for three-way talks in the immediate aftermath of a newly brokered ceasefire, Beijing appeared not just ready for its share of credit as peacemaker, but also eager to assert that its steadier, lower-key diplomatic approach was, in fact, superior to Washington’s.

“China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds,” Foreign Minister Wang told his Thai counterpart Sihasak Phuangketkeow in a separate bilateral meeting on Dec 28, in China’s south-western Yunnan province.

The Global Times, a state-run nationalist tabloid, went further. “Unlike many past mediations dominated by the West, China does not adopt a condescending approach, impose political conditions or seek geopolitical advantages,” it said in a Dec 29 editorial.

The remarks were a barely disguised criticism aimed at Washington’s attempts to defuse the conflict between the two South-east Asian neighbours.

As fighting first broke out in July, US President Donald Trump threatened punitive tariffs on both Cambodia and Thailand as part of ongoing trade negotiations.

The approach was initially heralded as the key catalyst that brought about an unconditional ceasefire on July 28, after five days of fighting. But political analysts say that, with the benefit of hindsight, the manufactured ceasefire papered over fundamental differences that neither side was ready to compromise on.

Mr Sihasak himself would later allude to the Trump administration’s bruising tactics, saying that a subsequent joint declaration which expanded on the July ceasefire with Cambodia had been “rushed”.

The US wanted the declaration, which it calls the “Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords”, ready for when Mr Trump was due to preside over its signing ceremony on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in the Malaysian capital on Oct 26, Mr Sihasak said.

“We appreciated the efforts of the US... But sometimes, you know, we cannot always operate on a fixed timeframe,” he told reporters on Dec 22.

Cambodia had welcomed the US efforts then, eager for international intervention to help its cause.

Thailand suspended the US-brokered peace deal in November after accusing Cambodia of laying new landmines, which Thailand says have now maimed 11 of its soldiers, including one on Dec 29.

Fighting reignited after both sides accused the other of firing first in an exchange of gunfire, prompting Thailand to launch air strikes into Cambodia on Dec 8, before a fresh ceasefire was agreed on Dec 27.

China has multiple strong interests in wanting to broker a lasting ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, not least to protect its extensive strategic investments and economic corridors in both countries.

Another key one is preventing further regional instability in its periphery, with Beijing already contending with a civil war in Myanmar, persistent tensions in the South China Sea, and its own domestic economic headaches.

But Beijing’s intervention also signals a greater appetite to vie for influence in South-east Asia and beyond amid shifting US engagement in the region, having helped broker the surprise rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s diplomatic and military backing had also bolstered the Myanmar junta’s standing ahead of ongoing elections in the country.

Five-part road map

The meeting in Yunnan secured trilateral agreement on a five-part road map to lock in the ceasefire and stabilise ties, with Beijing pledging involvement at every stage.

The priorities include consolidating the ceasefire, with China helping with landmine removal operations and providing support to the ASEAN Observer Team monitoring the ceasefire. Other Thai and Cambodian officials joined the talks, with diplomats and defence officials from the two countries holding their own bilateral meetings.

“An important consensus was reached,” Mr Wang said, according to a Foreign Ministry statement on Dec 29.

Associate Professor Ma Bo, who lectures on international studies at Nanjing University, told The Straits Times that China’s engagement had been continuous but “deliberately low-profile”, reflecting Beijing’s preference to remain in the background “when other actors take the lead publicly but may not get what it aims to achieve”.

“US mediation tends to prioritise speed and leverage to stop fighting quickly, often through visible pressure,” Prof Ma said. “China’s approach places greater emphasis on process, dialogue and post-crisis stabilisation, with the aim of preventing a rapid relapse into confrontation. In practice, China’s approach is more focused on sustaining calm after the ceasefire.”

But it may still be premature for Beijing to consider a victory lap, with the situation on the ground remaining fluid and distrust between both sides running deep.

Just hours after the Yunnan summit, Thailand’s army said Cambodia had flown more than 250 drones over Thai border areas on the night of Dec 28. It said it considered that a violation of the ceasefire agreement and that it was now reconsidering the release of 18 Cambodian soldiers it has held captive since July.

The Cambodian Defence Ministry said on Dec 29 that its armed forces had reported calm along the border since the ceasefire took effect two days earlier.

Mr Virak Ou, political analyst and founder of the Future Forum think-tank in Phnom Penh, said it remained a key question why China had not intervened sooner and more forcefully, and suggested Beijing’s decision was made easier by the fact that Thailand’s military superiority had likely led to significant strategic gains that it would be happy to retain through a ceasefire.

“Certainly, I think the facts on the ground are likely the main factors for the ceasefire, but perhaps China’s involvement could ensure a lasting ceasefire,” Mr Ou said.

“The China factor could just be an off-ramp for both countries to settle on a ceasefire, which Cambodia wants, and Thailand is probably happy now with the outcome on the ground.”

Mr Lye Liang Fook, an associate senior fellow and China expert at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said that by stepping in as a peacemaker, China allowed both sides a face-saving way to explain to domestic audiences why they are de-escalating.

“Cambodia, in particular, would welcome a dignified exit, given its weaker military position,” he said.