BANGKOK – Thailand is set to convene on Monday its first session of Parliament following the May 14 general election, but it remains far from certain who will become prime minister and form a new government.

What happens in this session?

King Maha Vajiralongkorn will open the new 500-member House of Representatives on Monday and it will start proceedings on Tuesday to elect a speaker.

Once that is decided, a date will be set to convene a joint session of the Lower House and 250-seat Senate to vote on a prime minister, expected around July 13. After a premier is chosen, a government can be formed, likely by early August.

What does the Lower House look like?

The opposition Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties won 151 and 141 seats, respectively, in a thumping of conservative rivals allied with the royalist military after nine years of government led by the same generals who took power in a 2014 coup.

The progressive Move Forward and populist Pheu Thai aim to form a coalition government with six small parties and collectively have 312 of the 500 House seats.

Outside of the alliance is Bhumjaithai with 71 seats, the Democrat Party with 25, and the military-backed Palang Pracharat and United Thai Nation parties with 40 and 36 seats, respectively.

There has been no announcement yet that they will attempt to form a minority government.

Is the alliance’s majority a guarantee for forming a government?

No. That majority is only in the Lower House. The successful prime ministerial candidate needs a majority in a joint vote of the two houses.

The parties have no representation in the Senate, which was appointed during military rule. The senators have so far voted largely in line with military and conservative interests, including backing coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha to remain prime minister after the 2019 election.

How does the PM vote work?

A candidate needs 376 votes from the 750 members of both chambers to become prime minister. If no candidate achieves that, more candidates can be nominated and lawmakers will keep holding votes until one reaches that threshold.

The eight-party alliance is backing Move Forward’s 42-year-old leader Pita Limjaroenrat, a Harvard graduate and former executive of ride and delivery app Grab.

Will Mr Pita get the votes needed?

Mr Pita’s alliance has 312 seats, so he needs 64 votes from among other parties or from senators.

However, his party’s anti-establishment agenda, which includes reforms to institutions like the military and to the law that criminalises royal insults, might be too much for many senators. If they vote as a bloc – like they did in 2019 – Mr Pita might fall short.

Many senators have said they will vote independently, and Mr Pita has said he has secured “enough” Senate support. But the outcome is far from certain.

Mr Pita might also struggle to win backing from parties outside of the alliance, some of which have disagreed strongly with Move Forward’s position on the lese-majeste law.

What if Mr Pita fails?

Move Forward may have miscalculated before the election in naming Mr Pita as their only prime ministerial candidate. Though he could be nominated again, Pheu Thai, a political heavyweight, might seize the opportunity to nominate one of its own pre-declared candidates for premier, which could significantly alter the coalition dynamic.

Those would include real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin, 60, or Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, whose father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck are both self-exiled former premiers whose governments were overthrown by the military.

Though influential, the billionaire Shinawatra family remains divisive. Political newcomer Srettha could be a more palatable figure for senators and rival parties to back.

Could there be a non-alliance PM?

In case of a deadlock, it is not out of the question. Royalist former army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, who was involved in the past two coups, has ironically been touting himself as a unifying figure able to bridge political divides.

A notorious dealmaker, Mr Prawit, 77, of the Palang Pracharat party has connections and influence in the establishment, Senate and among conservative parties. If he can strike an agreement with some alliance parties, he might be able to muster enough votes. REUTERS