Asian airlines pick up Europe-bound traffic amid Middle East route disruptions

KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE – Disruptions to Middle Eastern airspace are beginning to shift long-haul travel patterns, with Asian carriers picking up a share of Europe-bound passengers who would typically transit through Gulf hubs.

Several Asian carriers told The Straits Times they have scheduled additional flights on Asia-Europe routes and that demand for these segments is “strong”.

This comes as airlines based in the Gulf, including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, have scaled back or suspended some services as conflict-related risks complicate operations across the region, forcing rerouting and cancellations along key corridors linking Europe and Asia.

The disruption affects a critical segment of global aviation. As much as a third of Europe-Asia air traffic and more than half of Europe-Australasia connections are handled by Gulf hubs such as Dubai and Doha, according to industry estimates.

One estimate by aviation analytics firm Cirium put the total number of passengers affected by flight cancellations in the Middle East at more than six million.

Many passengers with existing bookings on Gulf carriers are now seeking to defer travel or switch destinations, while new journeys are increasingly routed through Asia-Pacific hubs because of safety concerns.

Ms Shazlina Noordin, a 55-year-old homemaker in Kuala Lumpur, had originally booked a return flight to Heathrow Airport in London on March 27 with Emirates as she usually prefers breaking up the journey with a stopover in the Gulf. But as tensions escalated, her plans changed quickly.

“When the war started, I immediately booked a flight with Malaysia Airlines,” she told ST, citing discomfort with transiting through Dubai. Within days, reports of drone and missile activity near the emirate, followed by flight suspensions, reinforced her decision.

The replacement ticket she booked in early March was priced similarly to her original fare, despite her typically finding Gulf carriers more affordable.

Ms Shazlina said she would avoid transiting through the Middle East for the foreseeable future, at least until the conflict subsides. 

“It’s not just about travel plans. It makes me think about whether my daughter should even remain in the UK for her studies.”

For now, her trip to visit her daughter is still on, but she acknowledged that under different circumstances she might have postponed it altogether.

“I don’t feel like travelling at this moment,” she said, pointing to concerns about flying near a conflict zone and the possibility of further disruptions, including those linked to oil supply shocks.

Asian airlines as alternatives

Analysts told ST that displaced passengers are seeking alternative routings through cities such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur – often at a premium.

Carriers such as Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific are seen as best placed to capture the shift, given their hub connectivity and long-haul networks.

SIA told ST that demand remains strong for its flights, including those between Singapore and Europe, and within the Asia-Pacific region. It declined to provide specific figures, citing commercial sensitivities.

The Singapore national carrier is operating additional flights to London Heathrow and Frankfurt, Germany, in March, with “strong” demand for these supplementary flights, an SIA spokesperson said.

Fares have also risen. Checks by ST showed the next available flights from Singapore to London until May were priced above $2,000 for a one-way economy seat, more than double the usual fare.

Other Asian carriers that have added short-term capacity on Asia-Europe routes to absorb the passenger traffic include Malaysia Airlines, Thai Airways, Vietnam Airlines and Air India. These carriers are either mounting additional flights or using larger planes with more seats.

Mr Bryan Foong, chief executive of airline business at Malaysia Aviation Group (MAG), which includes Malaysia Airlines and Firefly, said it is benefiting from shifts in passenger routing, though he did not provide figures.

“Kuala Lumpur continues to serve as a stable and reliable transit point between ASEAN, Australia and Europe, and we are seeing healthy load factors across selected long-haul sectors,” he told ST, adding that demand across its key European sectors remains “strong”.

Higher traffic in Asian airports

Airports in Asia also stand to gain more traffic from carriers outside the region. Air France and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines told ST they have deployed larger aircraft to Asia and added flights to South-east Asia, while British Airways and Lufthansa have increased frequencies to cities like Singapore and Bangkok.

Data from Flight Centre Travel Group showed corporate flight bookings between Australia and Europe via Changi Airport were up by 38 per cent between March 2 and 15 compared with the preceding two weeks.

However, the ability to deploy more long-haul capacity at short notice or sustain such increases in the long term is limited, said Mr Mayur Patel, commercial and industry affairs leader for the Asia-Pacific region at OAG Aviation. Airlines operate with little slack and face constraints including aircraft availability, airport slot restrictions and ongoing delivery delays from manufacturers, factors that pre-date the Iran war, he added.

“Even prior to the crisis, major transit hubs such as Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Incheon and Narita were expected to remain congested through 2026,” Mr Patel told ST.

With no end in sight to the Middle East disruptions, he said airlines are likely to reshape their networks if the crisis persists into the medium term.

This means some Asian destinations like Thailand that may lose out on connecting traffic from the Gulf will need to target alternative markets, such as those in Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific, and incentivise airlines to operate non-stop services using capacity redeployed from suspended Middle East routes, Mr Patel added.

On a radio show on March 14, Hong Kong’s Transport Minister Mable Chan said the city can benefit as a “catch-up port” by capturing cargo and passenger traffic redirected from the Middle East. 

Tourism ministries in Malaysia and Indonesia have also said they are actively reviewing their marketing campaigns.

Reshaping booking behaviour

Travel agents say the disruption is also reshaping booking behaviour, particularly for journeys that would normally transit through the Gulf.

Mr Fazli Haris Ibrahim, a travel consultant at KL-based Lintas Travel Services, said clients with existing bookings to Europe via Middle East hubs are weighing two main options: postponing their trips or changing destinations.

“Those who booked before the war are either pushing their travel to later months, from May onwards, or redirecting to what they see as safer regions such as Asia or Australasia,” he said.

However, making changes has not been straightforward. Requests for refunds or date changes with carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways are assessed on a case-by-case basis, and often require formal justification.

“For group bookings especially, airlines may ask for official documentation, such as letters or travel advisories from embassies, before approving changes,” Mr Fazli said.

For customers who have yet to confirm their plans, the advice has become more direct.

“We are encouraging them to avoid Middle Eastern transit routes for now, given the uncertainty,” he said.

Lasting effect?

Beyond shifts in travel patterns, the Iran war has also changed flight paths between Europe and Asia, said Mr Shukor Yusof, founder of Endau Analytics and an aviation analyst.

“Many airlines now skirt around the Middle East heading to South-east Asia and vice versa,” he told ST.

Looking beyond the immediate disruption, Mr Shukor suggested the shifts in travel patterns could have a lasting effect.

“People have seen how vulnerable the Gulf carriers and airports are. Unless there is permanent peace in the region, it could be permanent,” he told ST.

Looking ahead, Mr Patel said the outlook for Asian airlines is mixed as the impact of elevated jet fuel costs is severe, and higher fuel surcharges may offer only a partial buffer.

“While relatively well-positioned airlines such as Cathay Pacific and SIA maintain more prudent hedging policies compared with regional peers, these measures are unlikely to offset the magnitude of the increase,” he said.