After two strikes, Anwar needs a home run in Negeri Sembilan

KUALA LUMPUR – After its catastrophic showing in two consecutive Malaysian state polls, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) faces a do-or-die mission to retain control of Negeri Sembilan, where candidates are submitting their nominations on July 18. 

The coalition faces dire consequences if it fails, both in the short term and as it looks towards a general election due by early 2028.

The Democratic Action Party (DAP), the coalition’s largest component, is set to hold its annual congress just a fortnight after the Aug 1 vote, where it will decide on its future in the Anwar administration.

Coincidentally, both Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) as well as the Prime Minister’s uneasy ally UMNO – whose Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition is seeking to wrest back Negeri Sembilan – also go into their annual assemblies the same weekend.

Hence, while the central state is home to just 900,000 voters – a third of the 2.7 million in Johor, which overwhelmingly backed BN to continue running the state on July 11 – the result will have a knock-on effect on how the three largest ruling parties decide to navigate a maximum last 18 months before national polls.

The DAP’s internal referendum was sparked after PH was trounced at November’s Sabah state election, winning just one of 22 seats contested, with DAP failing to defend any of the six it won in 2020. 

Its leadership decided to give the so-called unity government – made up of rival parties and coalitions that came together after Malaysia’s first-ever hung Parliament in 2022 – at least six months to right the ship by accelerating reforms, delivering on election pledges and implementing policies to restore the trust of PH’s core support of urban and non-Malay voters.

Moreover, the opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), which has more elected representatives than any other party, is offering to cooperate with BN – and indeed back a chief minister from UMNO – in the central state. 

This follows from how the PAS-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) contested only 33 of the 56 wards in Johor, with the Islamist party calling on its supporters to back BN candidates in the remaining 23 contests in the name of Malay Muslim unity.

The move helped BN win a whopping 48 seats, increasing its haul from 40 previously, while PH fell from 12 to eight. BN and PN combined took nine out of 10 votes in seats where Malays made up over 80 per cent of the electorate.

Although there has been no public acknowledgement of a deal with PAS in Negeri Sembilan, BN said on July 15 it was contesting only 25 of the 36 seats. 

This sparked dismay among some Malaysian Chinese Association leaders over what appears to be a clear pact between BN, of which it is a founding member, and the Islamist party.

Shifting Malay political landscape

PH failing to win a third consecutive term in power in the central state could be the decisive result that seals a Malay unity electoral pact between PN and BN for the upcoming 16th general election.

Given that 123 of the 222 parliamentary seats are Malay-majority, a BN-PN pact would be the clear favourite to win the national polls.

But the strategy is not foolproof. PAS appears to have taken the upper hand in a power struggle within PN, with former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia looking increasingly sidelined.

Instead, it is former Bersatu No. 2 Hamzah Zainudin’s new Parti Wawasan Negara that is likely to be PAS’ more moderate Malay nationalist partner going forward. 

This schism, however, introduces the risk of more centrist Malays being split between UMNO, Wawasan and Bersatu.

“If BN allies with PN for the general election, PH can still pray and hope to win pluralities in multi-cornered contests if Bersatu can win enough Malay votes. A crowded race among Malay parties could still mean PH emerges as the largest bloc and give Anwar a chance at a second term,” advisory firm Viewfinder Global Affairs’ managing director Adib Zalkapli told The Straits Times.

There is also potential for a post-electoral split among these parties as UMNO president and Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi, PN chairman Samsuri Mokhtar – the PAS vice-president who is also Terengganu chief minister – as well as parliamentary opposition leader Hamzah could all vie to be prime minister.

In 2023, Negeri Sembilan was one of six states which went to the polls simultaneously with a PH-BN electoral pact.

This pact ensured that only one candidate contested any given seat, with the combined backing of both coalitions, in opposition to PN.  

PN swept to overwhelming victories in three northern states, including all 32 seats in the Terengganu assembly as it took the lion’s share of support from the Malay Muslim majority.

While PH installed chief ministers in the other three states with UMNO leaders taking up positions in their Cabinets, they presided over reduced majorities, largely due to BN candidates losing out to PN rivals.

Only in Negeri Sembilan did BN perform credibly, winning 14 of the 16 seats it contested. But this was in part due to backing from PH supporters.

Should it win more than 14 this time, it would make a strong case for BN to realign towards PAS instead of relying on PH’s seemingly dwindling votebank.