Russia, Iran, China could stoke post-election violence, US intelligence officials say

WASHINGTON – Russia, China and Iran are intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans ahead of the Nov 5 US elections and may consider fomenting violence after voters go to the polls, US intelligence officials said on Oct 22.

The officials, briefing reporters on US election security, said foreign actors could consider physical threats and violence, and are highly likely to conduct disinformation operations to create uncertainty and undermine the election process.

“Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the US democratic system. These activities are consistent with what these actors perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve,” said one official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

That official said influence actors, “particularly from Russia, Iran and China,” have learned from previous US elections and are better prepared to exploit opportunities to stoke unrest.

Those actors could draw on the same type of tools they have been using in the pre-election period - especially information and cyber operations - and may also consider physical threats and violence, the ODNI official added.

But US intelligence has not seen collaboration between Russia, China and Iran in election influence activities, the officials said. And, while foreign actors might seek to disrupt the process on Election Day, feeding discontent, the voting system is secure enough that they could not alter the outcome.

“Some foreign actors also have the capacity to stoke protests and take violent actions during this (post-election) period,” the ODNI official said. “In particular, Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that would contribute to such violence.”

A declassified memorandum released after the briefing by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) - the top US intelligence analytical body - warned that foreign operatives almost certainly will amplify false post-vote claims of election irregularities.

They also may use cyber attacks and espionage to disrupt or alter news and public government websites to promote confusion about the results and spread disinformation about the ballot-counting process, especially in races that are too close to call, the NIC said.

The US presidential race is expected to be tight. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Oct 22 showed Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris with a 46 per cent to 43 per cent lead over Republican former president Donald Trump.

China has no intention of interfering in the election and hopes that whoever wins “will be committed to growing sound and stable China-US ties,” a Chinese embassy spokesperson said in an email.

The Russian embassy and Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Russia and Iran previously have denied US election-meddling allegations.

Using AI

The ODNI official said foreign actors were using social media and other online operations to influence US presidential and congressional races, to denigrate some candidates or support others.

Some social media posts are likely to be generated by artificial intelligence, said that official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.

As an example, the ODNI official pointed to a post on social media platform X in October generated by what he called Russian influence actors that made a false allegation against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is Ms Harris’ vice-presidential running mate.

Intelligence agencies assessed that Russian influence actors created the content, the ODNI official said. A media review by the agencies showed “several indicators of manipulation” consistent with the actions of Russian actors, the official said.

That official said US intelligence concluded last weekend that the video was fake and the product of disinformation operatives, adding that it was consistent with ongoing Russian efforts to undermine the Democratic presidential ticket by fabricating allegations against Ms Harris and Mr Walz.

US intelligence agencies have been assessing for months that Russia would prefer that Trump retake the White House.

At the Oct 22 briefing for reporters, intelligence officials said they expected more Russian amplification of protests if Ms Harris wins the election.

“Russia would prefer the former president to win and they would seek to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect (Harris),” the ODNI official said.

The NIC said “Iranian actors” may try to publish online content disparaging Trump. REUTERS