Rice prices in Asia poised to fall further amid bumper Indian crop
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Farmers planting rice saplings in a padi field on the outskirts of Varanasi, India, in July.
PHOTO: AFP
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INDIA – Rice prices in Asia are poised to fall further as a bumper Indian harvest adds to plentiful global supply
Some importers are currently sitting on rice inventories that cover three to five months of consumption, said Mr Nitin Gupta, the deputy country head at Olam Agri India, citing countries in West Africa. The market is facing a swelling surplus, which will weigh on regional prices, he added.
Asia’s benchmark price dropped to a 10-year low in October, offering relief for household budgets but squeezing the income of farmers from India to Thailand. The Philippines, the world’s top rice buyer, plans to broadly extend its ban on overseas purchases until April 2026 to support its agricultural industry.
The benchmark Thai white rice 5 per cent broken, a category of white rice, fell to US$351 (S$458) a tonne on Oct 22, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, the lowest since September 2015.
Millers in Thailand, Pakistan and Myanmar are offering white, parboiled and broken varieties at prices at least 3 per cent cheaper than Indian supplies, Mr Gupta said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in New Delhi last week.
“We’re working to create new markets to offload our surplus and support farmers,” said Mr Rohith Singh, a director at the civil supplies department for Telangana, who is in charge of rice exports. Officials from the state met buyers from Benin, Kuwait and North Africa last week, he added.
Global rice output is forecast to reach a record 556.4 million tonnes in 2025 to 2026, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Farmers in the South Asian nation started harvesting their crop in late September, with collection due to finish by the end of the year.
Ample global supply is allowing some buyers to take a more measured approach to their procurement.
Dubai-based Invictus Trading FZE plans to purchase rice from India in tranches, rather than by bulk, on expectations prices will continue to decline, said senior business development manager Dharmendra Rawat.
“The bearish trend will persist as India is producing too much rice,” said Mr Samarendu Mohanty, a former senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute.
Domestic prices could drop another 10 per cent to 15 per cent owing to oversupply and soft overseas demand, he added. BLOOMBERG
