Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming 5 years, poll shows
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A poll showed that 61 per cent of respondents in Taiwan thought it was "unlikely or very unlikely" that China will attack the island in the coming five years.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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TAIPEI – Most Taiwanese believe China is not likely to invade in the coming five years but they do see Beijing as a serious threat to the democratic island, a poll by Taiwan's top military think-tank showed on Oct 9.
Over the past five years or so, China's military has significantly ramped up its activities around Taiwan,
The survey of around 1,200 people conducted in September by the Institute for National Defence and Security Research (INDSR) showed 61 per cent of people thought it was "unlikely or very unlikely" that China will attack Taiwan in the coming five years.
"Most people do not think China's territorial ambitions will manifest themselves in the form of attacking Taiwan," said Dr Christina Chen, an INDSR researcher.
Taiwan's people are also concerned about other Chinese threats, including military drills and propaganda campaigns, she said.
"Most people see China's territorial ambitions as a serious threat," Dr Chen said.
The poll presents a contrast to a warning by the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency, who said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
"That means Taiwanese people are aware of the threat but remain calm and rational with the expectations of an imminent war," the INDSR said.
More than 67 per cent of respondents to the poll said they would fight back if China attacked, but were split almost evenly on whether Taiwan's armed forces were capable of defending the island, with half expressing confidence and half expressing no confidence.
Dr Lee Kuan-chen, another INDSR researcher, said Taiwan's military should continue to boost its defence capacity to build public trust.
The poll also showed a split in opinion on whether the US would help defend Taiwan.
While some 74 per cent believed the US government was likely to "indirectly" help Taiwan by providing food, medical supplies and weapons, only 52 per cent thought the US military would dispatch its armed forces to intervene, the poll showed.
Dr Lee said Taiwan's government should be more transparent about Taiwan-US security cooperation.
"That way, people will not have expectations that are too high or too low on US assistance," Dr Lee said.
US President Joe Biden has upset the Chinese government with comments that appeared to suggest the United States would defend Taiwan if it were attacked, a deviation from a long-held US position of "strategic ambiguity". REUTERS
