NORTH KOREA – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown no interest in resuming disarmament talks with the United States after agreeing in 2018 to work towards “complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.” Instead, he has been busy making his nuclear-equipped arsenal bigger, deadlier and better able to strike America and its allies in Asia. Mr Kim fired off a record number of missiles in 2022 and brought his pre-teen daughter to displays of military might, signalling there’s another generation of leaders for the family dynasty, forged in the Cold War, that will depend on nuclear weapons for its survival.

1. What is Kim working on?

An array of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to hit US allies South Korea and Japan, longer-range rockets that could strike American bases in Guam, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) designed to deliver an atomic strike to New York or Washington. Mr Kim has also modernised his missile arsenal, steering away from the Soviet-era Scud variants that had been a staple towards rockets that rely heavily on domestic technology and can be manufactured despite sanctions. He’s also seeking to improve the technology to miniaturise warheads for strikes in the region and increase the power of warheads for an ICBM.

• Mr Kim has rolled out new solid-fuel ballistic missiles that are easier to move, hide and fire than many liquid-fuel versions. He’s launched more than 90 since May 2019, including nuclear-capable, super-fast KN-23 missiles that can strike all of South Korea – and US forces stationed there – within a matter of minutes. He has also launched KN-25 short-range missiles designed to be fired in rapid succession from a single launcher to overwhelm interceptors.
• North Korea tested a new, large-diameter, solid-propellant missile engine in December 2022. Apart from its use in a potential ICBM, North Korea could use the engine for intermediate-range missiles to strike Japan as well as hit US assets in places such as Guam.
• The two priorities for 2023 appear to be to refine its Hwasong-17 – which weapons experts say is the world’s largest road-worthy ICBM and is capable of carrying three nuclear bombs – as well as roll out a new solid-fuel ICBM. Mr Kim has also said he is seeking tactical nuclear weapons for strikes on battlefields.
• The country tested hypersonic missiles in September 2021 and again in January 2022. Those are designed to deploy a high-speed glide vehicle that can carry a warhead and manoeuvre past interceptors.
• North Korea also showed off in 2021, and again in January 2022, what it said was a new delivery system to fire missiles off a train, making them harder for prying eyes to track.

2. Could Kim really hit the US?

He appears to have acquired that capability after successfully testing an ICBM in November 2017, the Hwasong-15. The newer Hwasong-17 was displayed at a military parade in October 2020 to mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party and prominently displayed again at a parade in February this year. It may have exploded shortly after launch in a failed test in mid-March 2022, but Pyongyang has claimed success in subsequent launches. Still, it is unclear whether the country’s ICBMs could beat anti-missile systems and are refined enough to strike their intended targets, as well as whether the warheads could survive re-entry into the atmosphere.

3. How many nuclear devices does North Korea have?

At the low end, experts estimate that North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the Rand Corp and Asan Institute, put the number as high as 116. Another from the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defence Analyses this year said North Korea is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, adding it was looking to have between 100 and 300 over the long term. The country has conducted six atomic tests, with Mr Kim was responsible for the last four.

The US, Japan and South Korea have all said another could come any time. The first detonation in 2006 measured less than one kiloton, leaving experts wondering whether it had been a partial failure. (A kiloton is equal to the force of 1,000 metric tons – 1,102 tonnes – of TNT). In 2017, the most recent test, the estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotons dwarfed the 15 to 20 kiloton US bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. North Korea probably has developed miniaturised nuclear devices to fit into its ballistic missile warheads, according to the assessment of “several” countries cited in a 2020 United Nations report.

4. Where does Kim’s military get its fissile material?

It has been self-sufficient for decades in fissile material, the main ingredient to create a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. The programme today relies largely on enriched uranium and, according to weapons experts, produces enough annually for about six bombs. In addition, North Korea appeared in mid-2021 to have resumed plutonium-producing operations – another means of creating fissile material – at a nuclear reactor in its antiquated Yongbyon complex. 

5. What other surprises might be out there?

North Korea may be working on ICBMs that carry multiple warheads and in-flight countermeasures to throw interceptors off the trail, according to Datayo, an open-source weapons research site. The state has steadily ramped up production of mobile launchers for ICBMs to make the launches harder to track and may be working on a system to fire them from reinforced silos. Mr Kim has pushed to develop his fleet of submarines and has been looking to deploy a new vessel that experts say could fire missiles. 

6. How can the country afford all this?

The money needed is not huge in global terms. North Korea spends about US$7 billion (S$9.36 billion) to US$11 billion a year – around 20 to 30 per cent of its economy – on its military, according to a US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment. That’s roughly equivalent to two days’ US military spending. Although international sanctions have hit the economy hard, North Korea evades some through methods such as clandestine transfers at sea of banned goods such as oil, and it generates cash by means that include ransomware attacks. Mr Kim’s decade-old regime has already taken in as much as US$2.3 billion through cybercrimes and is geared to rake in even more, US and United Nations investigators have said.

7. Wasn’t Trump going to fix this?

Former president Donald Trump’s talks with Mr Kim, beginning with Singapore in June 2018, turned the duo from insult-throwing enemies into dialogue partners. But their three meetings did not produce any noticeable change, and North Korea has become what three decades of diplomacy had tried to prevent – a state capable of developing, projecting and detonating atomic bombs. Mr Kim has shown no interest in US President Joe Biden’s call for him to return to nuclear talks. BLOOMBERG