India’s critical monsoon rains hit mainland early

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – Monsoon rain hit India’s southernmost Kerala coast a few days earlier than expected on May 30, the national weather office said, boosting prospects for bumper harvests that could spur farm and economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

Summer rain usually begins to lash coastal Kerala state around June 1 and spread across the whole country by mid-July, triggering the planting of crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soya bean and sugarcane.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country’s nearly US$3.5 trillion (S$4.73 trillion) economy, delivers nearly 70 per cent of the rain that India needs to water farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers.

Nearly half of India’s farmland, without irrigation, depends on the annual June-September rains.

Regular rain during the monsoon season will also bring relief from

the searing heat wave

that has seen maximum temperatures cross 50 deg C in some parts of the north and west of the country.

India is likely to receive an average amount of rain in June, although maximum temperatures in the month are likely to remain above normal, according to the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD).

2024’s monsoon rain is expected to be 106 per cent of the long-term average.

The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87cm for the four-month season.

Below-average rain in 2023 depleted reservoir levels and hit food production. The government responded by imposing curbs on exports of rice, wheat, sugar and onions.

Resuming exports depends on how quickly production recovers in 2024, which is not possible without good monsoon rainfall. India is the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar.

Plentiful rain could also help to bring down food inflation, which has remained above the central bank’s comfort level.

The La Nina weather phenomenon, which increases rainfall in India, is expected to set in during July and September. REUTERS