If they speak, Taiwan President would tell Trump China is the one undermining peace in the Strait

TAIPEI – Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has said that if he had the opportunity to speak with US President Donald Trump directly, he would say that China is the main destabilising force in the region.

“My government is committed to maintaining the status quo, and Taiwan is also a guardian of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Mr Lai said at a news conference in Taipei on May 20 as he marked two years in office. “China is the one undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Beijing has expanded its military presence in the East and South China seas while carrying out exercises extending into the Western Pacific, causing tensions in the region to rise, said Mr Lai.

Procuring US arms, therefore, is a “necessary means to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”, he said, adding that he hoped this would continue.

On May 20, Mr Trump said he would speak to Mr Lai.

“Well, I’ll speak to him. I speak to everybody,” Mr Trump told reporters when asked if he had any plans to call Mr Lai, although he did not offer a timeframe for when such a conversation could take place.

“We will work on that Taiwan problem,” Mr Trump added.

Mr Trump appeared to raise the possibility of a direct conversation when he told reporters aboard Air Force One on May 15 that he needed to talk to the person “running Taiwan” before making a final decision on a US$14 billion (S$18 billion) arms package.

There has not been a direct conversation between sitting US and Taiwanese presidents since 1979, when Washington shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Such a conversation would be a major break in US diplomatic policy and would trigger intense backlash and anger from Beijing, which views Taiwan as its own territory to be “reunified” one day.

Mr Lai’s comments at the news conference came after Mr Trump told reporters on his way home following his May 14-15 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping that he was “not looking to have somebody go independent” and that he did not want to “travel 9,500 miles to fight a war”.

Mr Trump also described the planned US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip” with Beijing, raising questions about Washington’s commitment to Taiwan. The US is obligated by its Taiwan Relations Act to enable the island to defend itself against attacks.

Taiwan became a focal point at the Beijing summit when Mr Xi said that Sino-US ties would enjoy overall stability if the issue is handled properly. Otherwise, the two countries would clash or even be in conflict.

Speaking at the Presidential Office in Taipei on May 20, Mr Lai said Taiwan’s future cannot be decided by “forces outside our borders”. 

“Nor can it be held hostage by fear, division or short-term gain. Taiwan’s future must be determined together by our 23 million people,” he said. 

Mr Lai’s speech marked the halfway point of his four-year term, which continues to face critical challenges stemming from highly volatile relations with Washington and Beijing, deep domestic political divides, as well as structural economic imbalances. 

His latest approval ratings revealed highly divergent views: While 44.5 per cent of respondents in the April survey by leading pollster My Formosa said they were satisfied with the President’s performance, 47.5 per cent were dissatisfied.

But if Mr Lai’s anniversary speech and press conference were an opportunity to unify domestic audiences, then he failed, said Assistant Professor James Chen, a cross-strait relations expert at Taiwan’s Tamkang University. 

“He criticised the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) chair’s meeting with Xi as a surrender of Taiwan’s sovereignty… His red-baiting of the opposition will further deepen partisan divides,” Prof Chen told The Straits Times. 

KMT chair Cheng Li-wun was received by Mr Xi in Beijing in April, in the first meeting between the sitting leaders of the KMT and the Communist Party of China in nearly a decade. It provided a stark contrast to Beijing’s ongoing refusal to engage with Mr Lai, whom it has labelled a “dangerous separatist”. 

In his speech on May 20, Mr Lai noted that Taiwan was willing to engage with China under the principles of parity and dignity, but firmly rejected united front tactics that “package unification as peace”. 

In a press release, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) accused Mr Lai of stubbornly sticking to a secessionist stance in pursuit of “Taiwan independence”, while exaggerating the so-called threats from the mainland and intensifying confrontation across the Taiwan Strait.

At a regular news conference in Beijing, TAO spokeswoman Zhu Fenglian said Mr Lai cannot stop the “historical trend that the motherland will ultimately be reunified”.

Associate Professor Chang Wu-ueh, an international relations expert at Tamkang University, said there are several indicators to watch in the near term when it comes to the dynamics between Taipei, Washington and Beijing.

“How the US handles arms sales to Taiwan, whether President Lai will be allowed to transit through the US, high-level interactions between the US and Taiwan, and related legislation will all be key areas of concern for China,” he said.

Besides geopolitics and national security issues, Mr Lai’s wide-ranging speech also covered Taiwan’s economic development and social care reforms. 

He acknowledged that the benefits of Taiwan’s headline-grabbing economic gains may not have been felt by the whole population. The island’s soaring economic growth, driven by its lucrative semiconductor industry, has largely benefited specialised tech-centric industries rather than the broader workforce.

“I fully understand that good industrial performance means more than just statistics in a report, and that the economic growth of a nation is not meant to raise the positions of a select few,” he said. 

“Economic performance must be felt by the people, and it must help more people find greater stability in their lives,” he said, noting that his administration would inject a NT$100 billion (S$4 billion) acceleration plan to upgrade and transform traditional industries and small-and-medium enterprises. 

Mr Lai also said the government would soon unveil a new population strategy to address the demographic challenges posed by Taiwan’s plunging birth rate. In 2025, the island’s total fertility rate fell to 0.695, believed to be the world’s lowest.

Among the measures will be a monthly allowance of NT$5,000 per child from birth through age 18, he said, as well as policies related to family-friendly workplaces and housing for newlyweds. 

“With this, we are instilling young people with the confidence to marry, start families and build happy, fulfilling lives,” he said.