How North Korea is building a nuclear attack arsenal

WASHINGTON - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown new signs he is girding for battle by saying the

time is over for peaceful reunification

with South Korea and that he has the right to annihilate his neighbour.

To back up his threats, Mr Kim has been ramping up strike capabilities with a blistering pace of tests for his

newest ballistic missiles

– making them bigger, deadlier and better able to strike the US and its allies in Asia.

Washington has accused him of

sending munitions to Russia

in return for aid that bolsters his state’s military and economy.

Mr Kim has also brought his young daughter to displays of military might, signalling there is another generation of leaders for the family dynasty, forged in the Cold War, that will depend on nuclear weapons for its survival. 

1. What is Mr Kim working on?

An array of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to hit US allies South Korea and Japan, longer-range rockets that could strike American bases in Guam, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) designed to deliver an atomic strike on New York or Washington.

Mr Kim has also modernised his existing missile arsenal, steering away from the Soviet-era Scud variants that had been a staple toward rockets that rely heavily on domestic technology and can be manufactured despite sanctions. He is also seeking to miniaturise warheads for strikes in the region and increase the power of warheads for an ICBM. 

He has rolled out new solid-fuel ballistic missiles that are easier to move, hide and fire than many liquid-fuel versions. He has launched more than 150 since May 2019.

The most powerful of these include an ICBM test-fired successfully three times in 2023 that could be stored in hardened silos underground or rolled out on a transporter to be quickly shot off. The bulk of the new rockets have been nuclear-capable KN-23 missiles that can strike all of South Korea – and US forces stationed there – within a matter of minutes.

Mr Kim has also been sending missiles to Russia to help President Vladimir Putin in his assault on Ukraine, the US and Kyiv have said. This is the first time the missiles have been battle-tested, which could provide Mr Kim with data on adjustments needed to make them more capable of avoiding interception.

Mr Putin met Mr Kim in September 2023 and pledged to help North Korea’s space programme. Mr Kim wants to launch three spy satellites in 2024, which can help him keep an eye on US troops in the region and refine his target list. His first try in 2024 ended in failure, but he promised to press on.

Priorities for 2024 appear to include improving his ability to strike US military bases in Japan and Guam with intermediate-range ballistic missiles that deploy a warhead capable of manoeuvring at high speeds to evade interceptors as it makes its way to a target. He is also coordinating his systems for simultaneous launches of multiple missiles.

Mr Kim has attended tests of multiple rocket launchers designed to strike Seoul, with South Korea saying the displays may also be intended for Mr Putin as a sales pitch for the Kremlin’s war machine.

2. Could Mr Kim really hit the US?

He appears to have acquired that capability after successfully testing an ICBM in November 2017, the Hwasong-15.

Since then, Mr Kim has rolled out the Hwasong-17 at a military parade in October 2020. It is a liquid-fuelled rocket that experts said is designed to hold multiple warheads and is considered to be the world’s biggest road-worthy ICBM.

The solid-fuel Hwasong-18 is likely being scaled up to increase its ability to deliver bigger payloads.

Still, it is unclear whether the country’s ICBMs could beat US antimissile systems and are refined enough to strike their intended targets, as well as whether the warheads could survive reentry into the atmosphere.

3. How many nuclear devices does North Korea have?

At the low end, experts estimate that North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the Rand Corp and Asan Institute for Policy Studies, put the number as high as 116.

Another from the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defence Analyses in 2023 said North Korea is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, adding it was looking to have between 100 and 300 over the long term. The country has conducted six atomic tests, with Mr Kim responsible for the last four.

The US, Japan and South Korea have all said another could come any time.

The first detonation in 2006 measured less than one kilotonne, leaving experts wondering whether it had been a partial failure. A kilotonne is equal to the force of 1,000 tonnes of TNT.

In 2017, the most recent test, the estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotonnes dwarfed the 15 to 20 kilotonne US bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

North Korea probably has developed miniaturised nuclear devices to fit into its ballistic missile warheads, according to the assessment of “several” countries cited in a 2020 United Nations report. 

4. Where does Mr Kim’s military get its fissile material?

It has been self-sufficient for decades in fissile material, the main ingredient to create a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. The program today relies largely on enriched uranium and, according to weapons experts, produces enough annually for about six bombs.

In addition, North Korea appeared in mid-2021 to have resumed plutonium-producing operations – another means of creating fissile material – at a nuclear reactor in its antiquated Yongbyon complex.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said in late 2023 that North Korea had

commissioned a new light-water nuclear reactor

that could increase its annual plutonium production.

Plutonium is likely a better fit for its miniaturised nuclear warheads than highly enriched uranium, experts have said. The reactors used to produce the material are likely capable of producing tritium, which North Korea can use to build thermonuclear devices with far greater explosive force than a conventional nuclear bomb. 

5. What other surprises might be out there?

Mr Kim has been looking to build a nuclear-powered submarine and may seek help from Russia, which has a fleet of them.

Pyongyang launched a new submarine in September 2023

it said was capable of firing off missiles for a nuclear attack, but the boat appears to be conventionally powered and probably cannot stray too far from shore without being detected.

Satellite imagery indicates a new submarine may be under construction.

The bigger question is what else Mr Kim may seek from Russia in exchange for military aid that South Korea has said may include as many as three million artillery shells. Any technical assistance or shipments of fissile material could give Mr Kim ample stocks of bomb-grade material and a bevy of new ways to package that into weapons.

6. How can the country afford all this?

The money needed is not huge in global terms.

North Korea spends about US$7 billion (S$9.5 billion) to US$11 billion a year on its military, according to a US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment. That is roughly equivalent to two days’ US military spending, but is still a huge figure for North Korea, with an economy estimated by South Korea’s central bank at about US$25 billion.

The value of the artillery Mr Kim is providing Mr Putin is likely several billion dollars, and the aid from Russia could represent the biggest boost to North Korea’s economy since Mr Kim took power.

Although international sanctions have hit the economy hard, North Korea evades some of these through methods including clandestine transfers at sea of banned goods such as oil, and it generates cash using tactics that include ransomware attacks.

Mr Kim’s decade-old regime has already taken in as much as US$3 billion through cybercrime and is geared to rake in even more, US and United Nations investigators have said. 

7. Is Mr Kim getting ready for war?

Speculation has mounted that Kim will turn his bellicose outbursts into concrete action since a pair of prominent specialists published an article that the leader has made a strategic decision to go to war. 

Academics Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker said in the piece on the 38 North website that the North Korean leader has abandoned the state’s long-sought goal of normalising relations with the US, adding they did not “know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger”.

US officials responded by saying there are no signs of changes indicating a war is coming, and Washington has warned Kim a nuclear attack would be suicidal. Also, aid from Russia is helping Mr Kim stabilise the economy, South Korea has said.

While Mr Kim may be emboldened by the cooperation with Moscow, he would put at risk a level of fiscal stability that he has not seen before if he tried an attack.

8. Wasn’t Trump going to fix this?

Talks between Mr Kim and Donald Trump during the former US president’s time in office turned the duo from insult-throwing enemies into dialogue partners.

But their three meetings did not produce any noticeable change, and North Korea has become what three decades of diplomacy had sought to prevent – a state capable of developing, projecting and detonating atomic bombs. BLOOMBERG